Do the Reds have a shot in the second half?

[jammin' jamey]

82 games down and the Reds find themselves in the basement of the NL Central...Before Jerry Narron was shown the door, the Reds were 17 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. They now find themselves 13 games back and 5-1 under new interim manager Pete Machanin (or as the Cincy media calls him "MachanWIN).

The NL Central is weak and it's safe to say that the Milwaukee Brewers are vulerable in the upcoming pennant chase. The Cubs have shown flashes of being a contender. The Cardinals are still the defending World Champs. The Astros have been really been in a funk throughout the first half much like Cincinnati. The Pirates young pitchers are not turning the corner and their offense is struggling.

Can the Reds put it together in the 2nd half? Will they be sellers or buyers by the July 31st non-wavier trade deadline? If they are sellers, do you wipe the slate clean with Adam Dunn or Griffey or both being traded?

Or will the Reds continue to win with Eddie Guardado and Bill Bray returning very soon to the bullpen?

Maybe the new-ness of the atmosphere will die down and Reds will not contend?

What say you??????

[More Cowbell]

I hope that the Reds are sellers, for sure. If they aren't, or especially if they are buyers, then somebody better check Krivsky to see if he has found his bong from college.

This team, while it has been fun to see them win for a change, is still 16 games under .500 for the year. While they could still make a run at it, I still think they are much better off shipping some of their valuable parts for prospects. Heck, with the way Hatteberg has been playing, he may bring a much better return than anyone would've imagined. Also, Weathers could bring something good, too; playoff teams are always looking for bullpen help.

I am also not opposed to trading Dunn or Griffey, so long as they get a good return. We don't need to trade them, so don't do it for the sake of doing it. If teams are going to lowball you, tell them where to stick it and keep both players.

[Fenix]

They could find themselves within reaching distance based on the fact they have so many games left with the Brewers, but I find it highly unlikely.

[More Cowbell]

They could find themselves within reaching distance based on the fact they have so many games left with the Brewers, but I find it highly unlikely.

That is true about having a bunch of games with the Brewers. I was just thinking the other day it seemed like we've hardly played them at all, so I went and check the Reds' schedule. They have only played 2 games with the Brew Crew, and still have 13 left with them. Weird scheduling by the league office.

[Redneck]

It's doubtful, but I hope and pray that they do.

[OffTheHook]

Not with the pitching the have.

[FOX SPORTS]

The Reds are done!!! and have been since May 15.

The sell-off will begin shortly after the all star break and hopefully Krivsky will get more this time than the sick arms he got last sell-off.

Griffey has a no trade clause and could veto any trade talks...Dunn may bring the most bang(to Cincy) to a contender.

[PLAYBOY5]

Not with the pitching the have.
Took my post right out of my mouth!

[ComfortEagle]

They are done. Not a snowballs chance in...

[rallo316]

they do have a chance but i hate beat a dead horse bullpen,bullpen,and bullpen call me old school or what ever you want i think a closer should throw mid to upper 90"s.

[PLAYBOY5]

they do have a chance but i hate beat a dead horse bullpen,bullpen,and bullpen call me old school or what ever you want i think a closer should throw mid to upper 90"s.
Then it isn't going to happen unless they use Harang/Bailey/Arroyo EVERY GAME..Use a 3 man rotation just like High School, lol!

[jammin' jamey]

Griffey has a no trade clause and could veto any trade talks...Dunn may bring the most bang(to Cincy) to a contender.

Dunn is essentially a free agent if traded this year because the $13 million option for next year is voided if he doesn't finish the season with the Reds. Highly unlikely the Reds get anybody of substance for him unless a team like the Padres are just flat out desperate for offense and can work out some kind of deal with Dunn to keep him for multiple years.

A Griffey trade is highly unlikey in my opinion simply because he's close to 600 homers, which will draw a crowd once the Reds flame out during their upcoming road trip.

I think the newness of Pete MachanWIN will wear off this week, the law of averages will catch up with the Reds and this team will settle back into their losing ways again. Although, it would be nice to continue to see this club overachieve. :D

[StrikeoutKing]

Wasn't it last season, the Minnesota Twins seemed to be finished, only to come back and win the Division? And that was in the MUCH stronger AL Central. Are the Reds finished? Maybe. Their bullpen is HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE. And did I mention HORRIBLE? If they have ANY chance, they need to add some bullpen help, but I don't know if you wanna take a risk at bringing someone in being 13 games back. I hope they somehow turn things around, but I honestly don't see it happening. When you have a starter leaving a game with a 3-1 lead after 8 innings, there is NO REASON to have him get a no decision. 'NUFF SAID!

[rallo316]

Then it isn't going to happen unless they use Harang/Bailey/Arroyo EVERY GAME..Use a 3 man rotation just like High School, lol!
3 man rotation talk about some tired arms.

[More Cowbell]

Then it isn't going to happen unless they use Harang/Bailey/Arroyo EVERY GAME..Use a 3 man rotation just like High School, lol!

I don't think Belisle has pitched that poorly, considering he is the fourth/fifth statrter. His numbers (5-6, 5.28) aren't terribly impressive, but they aren't bad for the back end of the rotation and he has averaged 6 innings per start. You can't expect every starter to have a winning record.

What has been disappointing is the inconsistency shown by our #2 and #3 guys, Arroyo (3-9, 4.84) and Lohse (5-10, 4.47). They have had spotty run support at times, but they have also had some very poorly pitched games.

[Scotty doesn't know]

I don't think Belisle has pitched that poorly, considering he is the fourth/fifth statrter. His numbers (5-6, 5.28) aren't terribly impressive, but they aren't bad for the back end of the rotation and he has averaged 6 innings per start. You can't expect every starter to have a winning record.

What has been disappointing is the inconsistency shown by our #2 and #3 guys, Arroyo (3-9, 4.84) and Lohse (5-10, 4.47). They have had spotty run support at times, but they have also had some very poorly pitched games.

With Loshe and Arroyo, you should see an improved second half of the season. Both of these guys have been streaky and are due to get their stuff together. In the first half Loshe either pitched great or got blasted in every. Arroyo on the other hand had a big stent of the season where the bats where not giving him support. These where games that he gave the team good chances to win but they just did not get more than 1 or 2 runs in support. However, his stuff detiorated for about a month and he seemed to have lost alot of confidence. In his recent starts he has pitched well and has seemed to be on the way back up. I believe that the second half will be better for both of these pitchers but as for strengthening the team to the point that they could make the playoffs...I don't really know about that.

[PLAYBOY5]

Guys, I was saying this sarcastically about a 3 man rotation, jeesh

[More Cowbell]

Guys, I was saying this sarcastically about a 3 man rotation, jeesh

I know you didn't actually want the Reds to go with a 3-man rotation, I was just pointing out that the back end of the rotation hasn't been this team's downfall. Belisle has been acceptable as a 4th/5th starter, but the 2nd/3rd starters have been a letdown. And of course, a lion's share of the blame goes to the bullpen.

[bball fan]

What scares me about Bailey is that 2 of his last 3 starts he has looked like the pitchers that were throwing to the batters in home run derby!!

[Grand Slam]

we can only hope

[PLAYBOY5]

Bailey is young though and will make mistakes as most young pitchers do!

[jammin' jamey]

I don't think Belisle has pitched that poorly, considering he is the fourth/fifth statrter. His numbers (5-6, 5.28) aren't terribly impressive, but they aren't bad for the back end of the rotation and he has averaged 6 innings per start. You can't expect every starter to have a winning record.

What has been disappointing is the inconsistency shown by our #2 and #3 guys, Arroyo (3-9, 4.84) and Lohse (5-10, 4.47). They have had spotty run support at times, but they have also had some very poorly pitched games.

The Reds have lost the last 6 starts that Belisle has made, and it's usually because he has one bad inning. Hopefully he'll work it out sooner than later because he's the odd man out right now if the Reds want to try someone else from Louisville.

As for Lohse, since giving up 8 earned runs to Seattle, he's thrown two gems and lowered his ERA from 5.02 to 4.47. He's all about location and if he doesn't have it on any given start, he'll get beat around because he doesn't have the fastball to blow by hitters.

Arroyo has suffered from a tired pitching arm, but I look for him to be better in the second half with extended rest and having his spot pushed back in the rotation.

[jammin' jamey]

What scares me about Bailey is that 2 of his last 3 starts he has looked like the pitchers that were throwing to the batters in home run derby!!

So did Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and any other rookie pitcher that hit the big leagues. There aren't too many rookie pitchers who come up and blow hitters away night-in-and-night-out like Doc Gooden (who flammed out with drugs).

[Panther Thunder]

umm NO

[More Cowbell]

The Reds have lost the last 6 starts that Belisle has made, and it's usually because he has one bad inning. Hopefully he'll work it out sooner than later because he's the odd man out right now if the Reds want to try someone else from Louisville.

As for Lohse, since giving up 8 earned runs to Seattle, he's thrown two gems and lowered his ERA from 5.02 to 4.47. He's all about location and if he doesn't have it on any given start, he'll get beat around because he doesn't have the fastball to blow by hitters.

Arroyo has suffered from a tired pitching arm, but I look for him to be better in the second half with extended rest and having his spot pushed back in the rotation.

They may have lost the last few Belisle has started, but on the whole he hasn't pitched that bad. I still say that 5-6 and 5.28 are not bad numbers for the back end of the rotation. Plus, he has averaged 6 innings per start, so it's not like he's getting knocked out early and burning out the bullpen. Really, if he is the worst the rotation has to offer, we aren't in that bad of shape. He is a young guy in his first full season as a starter, and he has performed adequately, IMO. He may not ever do as well as Harang and Arroyo, but that's why they get paid the big bucks. :D

I do agree about Arroyo having a tired arm. He is slightly built, and is probably feeling the effects of throwing a lot of innings last year. I, too, hope that some extra rest will help him regain his previous form.

[PLAYBOY5]

The Reds need players who are fundamentally solid. Players who know how to play the game, put the ball in play when it needs to be in play, role players and solid pitching! Instead, they have a lineup who can hit 600 HR's a year but bats 245. that isn't going to win you games! Sure it puts fans in the seats because, me as much as the next guy likes to see the longball! But I would rather have a guy 3-4 with a double than a guy go 1-5 with a HR and 4 K's! And the Reds have that all up and down the lineup! And pitching, well my gosh, where do I get the book published?

[FOX SPORTS]

Dunn is essentially a free agent if traded this year because the $13 million option for next year is voided if he doesn't finish the season with the Reds. Highly unlikely the Reds get anybody of substance for him unless a team like the Padres are just flat out desperate for offense and can work out some kind of deal with Dunn to keep him for multiple years.

You are correct.
Depends on ones definition of substance...The Reds could pick up some pitching Prospects(minor leaguers) or maybe a real third baseman for Dunn to the right team.

[Scotty doesn't know]

You are correct.
Depends on ones definition of substance...The Reds could pick up some pitching Prospects(minor leaguers) or maybe a real third baseman for Dunn to the right team.

Do you think that the Reds would almost be willing to part with Dunn just to get rid of his contract. That means maybe a prospect in return from whoever picks up his contract (which is up at the end of the year if traded).

I wonder how low the Reds will go to free up that money that Dunner has tied up.

[PLAYBOY5]

I think for Dunn that they could get a solid 3rd baseban AND a solid pitching prospect!

[More Cowbell]

I'm not ready to give up on Encarnancion as our third baseman just yet. He has actually hit quite well since being called back up from the minors. Until we know that EE is going to be a bust, I don't think obtaining a 3rd base prospect should be high on our agenda. Although, I guess you could easily switch him to the outfield or first if you wanted to...

[Scotty doesn't know]

I'm not ready to give up on Encarnancion as our third baseman just yet. He has actually hit quite well since being called back up from the minors. Until we know that EE is going to be a bust, I don't think obtaining a 3rd base prospect should be high on our agenda. Although, I guess you could easily switch him to the outfield or first if you wanted to...

I wonder how EE would take to playing a different spot after getting to be proficient with
3rd base.
I saw that someone mentioned a possible Hatteburg trade after he has picked up the offense, so I guess possibly switching EE to first and getting a 3rd base prospect or star would not be out of the picture.

[FOX SPORTS]

I'm not ready to give up on Encarnancion as our third baseman just yet. He has actually hit quite well since being called back up from the minors. Until we know that EE is going to be a bust, I don't think obtaining a 3rd base prospect should be high on our agenda. Although, I guess you could easily switch him to the outfield or first if you wanted to...
.263 batting avg in parts of three seasons...30 HRs in 873 at bats...not spectacular.
Big problem with Encarnacion is that he is not a good defensive 3B... .933 career fielding percentage.

[More Cowbell]

.263 batting avg in parts of three seasons...30 HRs in 873 at bats...not spectacular.
Big problem with Encarnacion is that he is not a good defensive 3B... .933 career fielding percentage.

If he has 30 HR in 873 AB, that translates to 20 HR in 580 AB, which is around the number of AB's you would get in a full season. While I would not call a .263 avg and 20 HR in a season spectacular either, it certainly does not qualify as a bust. Plus, EE has been one of the better hitters with runners in scoring position, hitting .274 this year and .303 last year, which led the team among the regular starters.

My point is, it is way to early to give up on a young talent like Encarnacion. Granted, he is below average defensively, but that is fixable, and is still no reason to get rid of him at this point in his career.

[Jshort5]

the reds dont have a shot in the 2nd half because they just dont have the bullpen relief

[Jshort5]

They Dont Have A Chnce

[Scotty doesn't know]

If he has 30 HR in 873 AB, that translates to 20 HR in 580 AB, which is around the number of AB's you would get in a full season. While I would not call a .263 avg and 20 HR in a season spectacular either, it certainly does not qualify as a bust. Plus, EE has been one of the better hitters with runners in scoring position, hitting .274 this year and .303 last year, which led the team among the regular starters.

My point is, it is way to early to give up on a young talent like Encarnacion. Granted, he is below average defensively, but that is fixable, and is still no reason to get rid of him at this point in his career.

I say that Encarnacion and Hamilton will be the two players that the organization will build around. With Hatteburg picking it up he has a big chance of being traded, of course Dunn Griffey are in the trade rumors and who knows what else.
With the exception of the trade bait, I think that Hamilton, EE, Phillips, Gonzo, Freel and Ross will be back. Our outfield will hopefully be shifted up a little.

[More Cowbell]

I say that Encarnacion and Hamilton will be the two players that the organization will build around. With Hatteburg picking it up he has a big chance of being traded, of course Dunn Griffey are in the trade rumors and who knows what else.
With the exception of the trade bait, I think that Hamilton, EE, Phillips, Gonzo, Freel and Ross will be back. Our outfield will hopefully be shifted up a little.

Whoa, I don't know if I would go that far. I said don't give up on him, but EE has also not shown enough yet to say he is a cornerstone for the future. The jury is simply not out yet on him.

I also think it's a little early to slap that label on Hamilton, although I have been very impressed with him so far. Just remember, he has only been in the majors a grand total of 3 1/2 months now.

Phillips, on the other hand, has definitely shown that he is a future all-star, and I agree he should be one of the cornerstones, along with Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce. I would also not trade Harang or Arroyo, we have them locked up for 3 more years at a reasonable rate.

[Scotty doesn't know]

Whoa, I don't know if I would go that far. I said don't give up on him, but EE has also not shown enough yet to say he is a cornerstone for the future. The jury is simply not out yet on him.

I also think it's a little early to slap that label on Hamilton, although I have been very impressed with him so far. Just remember, he has only been in the majors a grand total of 3 1/2 months now.

Phillips, on the other hand, has definitely shown that he is a future all-star, and I agree he should be one of the cornerstones, along with Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce. I would also not trade Harang or Arroyo, we have them locked up for 3 more years at a reasonable rate.

I didn't say that I think that it is right. I meant that it is what I think Krivsky is thinking. "Hamilton and EE will be the future stars of this team therefore begin molding the team around them." Conserve money (Dunn and Griffey), invest in new young talent (pitcheres, Jay Bruce), build around future stars, and you got a rebuilt outfield and a revamped payroll. You are right about Phillips, he is one of the guys they should build around, he has really shown the offensive and defensive flashes this year and seems to be ready to be the Reds next big all-star.

[More Cowbell]

I didn't say that I think that it is right. I meant that it is what I think Krivsky is thinking. "Hamilton and EE will be the future stars of this team therefore begin molding the team around them." Conserve money (Dunn and Griffey), invest in new young talent (pitcheres, Jay Bruce), build around future stars, and you got a rebuilt outfield and a revamped payroll. You are right about Phillips, he is one of the guys they should build around, he has really shown the offensive and defensive flashes this year and seems to be ready to be the Reds next big all-star.

I'm not convinced that is what the Kriv is thinking either. Maybe with Hamilton (can't hurt that he's the one who signed him), but I'm not so sure with Encarnacion. I mean, he did send EE down to Louisville earlier this year after a couple bad games. I thought that was pretty harsh at the time, but even more so if he considers him a franchise cornerstone. Granted, EE hit his way back up to the big club and has continued hitting well, but who knows how long they would've left him there if he struggled?

Side note, I am really excited to see what Bruce will do when he makes it up to Cincy in a couple years!

[Scotty doesn't know]

I'm not convinced that is what the Kriv is thinking either. Maybe with Hamilton (can't hurt that he's the one who signed him), but I'm not so sure with Encarnacion. I mean, he did send EE down to Louisville earlier this year after a couple bad games. I thought that was pretty harsh at the time, but even more so if he considers him a franchise cornerstone. Granted, EE hit his way back up to the big club and has continued hitting well, but who knows how long they would've left him there if he struggled?

Side note, I am really excited to see what Bruce will do when he makes it up to Cincy in a couple years!

Yeah! Me too!!! Just wondering... What do you think our outfield will look like next year?