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12-09-2007, 02:50 AM
strengthens from a disturbance in the atmosphere to a 996mb in 12 hours. Now if it'll just slow down its forward speed. And let it get crankin @ about 990! (btw, there's a 940 around greenland on a few shots on the GFS)
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12-09-2007, 12:23 PM
BCF4L,
I was just checking into the NAO as you were mentioning earlier in the week, and indeed, it goes -1 to -2 by the end of this week. By contrast, this is roughly the level it was during the winters of 88, 96 and 98. (93 was mildy positive).
The european models, GFS, (nao), are all looking positively towards a major winter event once again for the 15-17 time frame. I thought it was a lost cause. With the storm around the 144-168 timeframe.. I can't wait until it gets in the 84-96 so that the NAM and others get in on the action.
I was just checking into the NAO as you were mentioning earlier in the week, and indeed, it goes -1 to -2 by the end of this week. By contrast, this is roughly the level it was during the winters of 88, 96 and 98. (93 was mildy positive).
The european models, GFS, (nao), are all looking positively towards a major winter event once again for the 15-17 time frame. I thought it was a lost cause. With the storm around the 144-168 timeframe.. I can't wait until it gets in the 84-96 so that the NAM and others get in on the action.
12-10-2007, 12:53 PM
Well the thing is, the GFS has lost the storm. Not a surprise here cuz the GFS always loses snowstorms for some reason. However, the Canadian, Euro, and Japanese models are showing the storm. The latest run of the Euro shows an Apps runner which takes the storm into western VA. This is a little too close for us to receive any front end snow. It shows rain at the start, then changing to moderate snow on the backside. I don't think this will end up happening however. I see this thing turning up the coast and giving us at least 6 inches. This is my thoughts as of now, but of course we still have a long ways to go. Another thing to look at is a tropical system that is forming in the Carribean. If this system heads into the Gulf as it is expected to, and can join in with the storm that is supposed to affect us, then we would be looking at alot more moisture, which in turn would give us more snow. That's what we definitely want to happen.
12-11-2007, 09:54 AM
BCF4L Wrote:Well the thing is, the GFS has lost the storm. Not a surprise here cuz the GFS always loses snowstorms for some reason. However, the Canadian, Euro, and Japanese models are showing the storm. The latest run of the Euro shows an Apps runner which takes the storm into western VA. This is a little too close for us to receive any front end snow. It shows rain at the start, then changing to moderate snow on the backside. I don't think this will end up happening however. I see this thing turning up the coast and giving us at least 6 inches. This is my thoughts as of now, but of course we still have a long ways to go. Another thing to look at is a tropical system that is forming in the Carribean. If this system heads into the Gulf as it is expected to, and can join in with the storm that is supposed to affect us, then we would be looking at alot more moisture, which in turn would give us more snow. That's what we definitely want to happen.
I haven't saw the tropical storm, but will look into it. This puts me in mind of the 1993 storm! Most don't realize that it was actually a subtropical or 'extra'tropical storm. I've never been this excited over storm before.
BCF4L, all models are now picking up this storm. The GFS has a 972 in maryland! This is absolutely amazing!
12-11-2007, 10:24 AM
All models are picking up the storm. The storm is a guarantee, it's just where this storm goes is the question. Alot of warm air coming in ahead of the front is worrying me. The storm is trending more northerly and westerly. However, I do expect this thing to level out a little more southeast than the latest models are showing. My first call on the snowfall will be 4+ inches in eastern KY with central KY getting around 8+. This of course will change depending on the track of the low, how much warm air we have, and if we get rain, when that rain will change back over to snow. Alot of things to look at still and a long ways to go.
12-11-2007, 10:36 AM
ComfortEagle Wrote:Should I get the sled out?
If you do bring the sleds out... being in Richmond.. are you going to slide down I-75?
jk
12-11-2007, 10:42 AM
ronald_reagan Wrote:If you do bring the sleds out... being in Richmond.. are you going to slide down I-75?
Hey, there was one day last year that I could have.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
12-11-2007, 10:44 AM
ComfortEagle Wrote:Hey, there was one day last year that I could have.
Well being in lexington as I am... if you see someone flying by... it might be me. Not Saint Nick. :rockon:
12-11-2007, 11:03 AM
BCF4L Wrote:If I seen you flying by RR, I'd be a little concerned seeing as to how you should be dead, and have been for a couple of years.
Thats absolute blaphsemy......
lol
12-11-2007, 05:28 PM
ComfortEagle Wrote:Is this a for sure, or an "if it's cold enough?"Well, LOL, depends how you look at it. Honestly, I think Central Ky is going to get all snow regardless. Eastern KY could be riding the fence for a while, but ultimately I think Eastern KY will see mostly snow. Maybe a little rain at the onset of the storm, but should still end up with a decent snowfall.
12-12-2007, 09:17 AM
BCF4L Wrote:Latest GFS says, "I'm going to end your snow drought KY".Please provide a link for these maps.
Say it with me......BOOOOOMMMMMM!!!
[Image: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/...p_108l.gif]
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