[Cactus Jack]

With you on Denver winning the series in 5. If I had to pick a different outcome, it'd be them taking it in 6. I think the difference in seeding becomes more of a factor in this round as Denver has the rest that you'd mentioned, plus the Heat had two extra games in the play-in and are coming off of a seven game series with Boston. Not trying to tail on this now that Denver took game one (which I was still at the office for the majority of and didn't to see anyway); I'd read a statistic about last night that home teams with five or more days rest going into Game 1 of the Finals had won around 88% of those openers (albeit against a small sample size) whereas all Game 1 hosts had were at about 76% historically.

I think Butler gets loose in at least one game and the Heat will be able to pull at least one out, possibly even in convincing fashion. I'd expect that win to come in one of their home games. Whether they're able to pull off another tight one is up in the air & depends on how well the Heat shoots on a night that the Nuggets are a bit off. Ultimately, I just think it's Denver's year so long as Murray and Jokic avoid an injury.

Miami was probably always going to be one player away from winning it all, and arguably would have lost Game 7 to Boston but for Tatum getting injured early. I don't know that getting Herro back is going to be a huge difference maker for them that some think it could be.