[Cactus Jack]

This is such an interesting topic to me. A year ago I was wondering if he would get any meaningful minutes (maybe in four years) at UK. Now we are debating what his pro prospects are. I think the right NBA roster is the absolute key for what type of pro career he might have. It’s possible he could become a rotation guy in the right spot, don’t know that he will ever be a regular NBA starter. But I never saw super star status for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker or Tyrese Maxey either. Sometimes these guys just really blossom in their early 20s after they’ve left college. Sheppard could still get a little taller (my own son went from 5-11 1/2 at his graduation to 6-1 in two years). He could definitely get stronger. But would he get taken advantage of defensively in the man-to-man world of the NBA? And would he go if he’s not a guaranteed first round pick? He can make a fortune in NIL money every year he’s at UK. One thing I will disagree with you on is that one thing he does make look easy is making the right on the floor decision with getting the ball where it needs to go. That’s not something you’ll necessarily see on ESPN highlights, but coaches and scouts will always be aware of it.

On November 30th, Jonathan Givony of ESPN had him going #25 to the Indiana Pacers.

Others with UK ties:
Olivier Sarr's younger brother, Alex, was projected to go to the Pistons at #2.
Justin Edwards was projected at #13 to San Antonio.
Wagner at #15 to Atlanta.
Dillingham at #20 to Cleveland.
Bradshaw at #39 to Oklahoma City.


Post New Year's Day, Givony had moved Sarr up to #1, Dillingham to #7, and Sheppard to #16. None of the others mentioned above had moved in the post-NYE update. Side note: I'm also high on Baylor's Ja'Kobe Walker, who was projected at #4. Walker may be a good player to draw parallels to later; same goes for Chris Lofton, albeit for different reasons.


If Sheppard is projected to go at #16 when the season ends, his stock will never be (much) higher. At that point, if he has a guarantee, it's a question of how happy he is concluding his career at UK (which their finish will likely have a large say in) versus risking the chance that he comes back only to harm his future draft potential. Either way, it's his decision and not a terrible set of options to have to choose from, but I have a hard time seeing him ever being projected higher than a late lottery pick. I don't see him leaving after his freshman year unless he's going to be a first rounder though-- the NIL money and allure of UK will be too much.


Also going to call it right now, because there are a few NBA franchises that love white college players: the Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs, Sacramento Kings, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, and Indiana Pacers. No matter the year, I'm going to take one of those seven against the entire field if you are asking who'll draft him or where he'll end up by the end of draft night. Huge range of how his career could go with those franchises, but I'll go on record and say that the odds on it being one of those seven are high.