[Midee1]

Here are 3 I just went out and took. The first two are looking out back towards my gazebo and the last one is out the front door over the deck.

[vundy33]

Is that a Tahoe toy hauler?

[BlackcatAlum]

Here are a couple of pics from this mornings snow....LOLOL....

Here are 3 I just went out and took. The first two are looking out back towards my gazebo and the last one is out the front door over the deck.

I'm so jealous right now, that it's not even funny.

[BCF4L]

Of course Prestonsburg ended up with a wintry mix/rain during this event. A couple days ago the NAM and GFS had the center of low pressure tracking further and further south giving Eastern and Central KY a decent shot of getting at least some snow, but the closer it got, the models started shifting back North. Just like the heavy rain event we got last Sunday. Between 204 and 300 hours on the GFS, it showed a nice snowstorm for KY. It had the low tracking just south of the Bluegrass, turning up the East Coast, and having a secondary low form just off the Atlantic Coast. That is a prime time snowstorm for this area, but around the 156 hour of the GFS, it started taking the low way to the North and made it a Lakes Cutter. And sure enough, it ended up pushing warm air into the state, and leaving us with nothing but rain. The problem with the GFS is that you can't trust it no more than 2-3 days out. I've noticed this year, the European and Canadian models have been more accurate than the NAM and GFS. I think the only shot we will have at a snowstorm is if the GFS is showing a low tracking somewhere around the panhandle of Florida at around 300 hours. Maybe with the Northern trend these models take, the Low may track into northern GA, or southern TN. Maybe we could stay away from the WAA and keep it all snow. Who knows. We are like a snow dome though, I do know that for sure.

[ronald_reagan]

Of course Prestonsburg ended up with a wintry mix/rain during this event. A couple days ago the NAM and GFS had the center of low pressure tracking further and further south giving Eastern and Central KY a decent shot of getting at least some snow, but the closer it got, the models started shifting back North. Just like the heavy rain event we got last Sunday. Between 204 and 300 hours on the GFS, it showed a nice snowstorm for KY. It had the low tracking just south of the Bluegrass, turning up the East Coast, and having a secondary low form just off the Atlantic Coast. That is a prime time snowstorm for this area, but around the 156 hour of the GFS, it started taking the low way to the North and made it a Lakes Cutter. And sure enough, it ended up pushing warm air into the state, and leaving us with nothing but rain. The problem with the GFS is that you can't trust it no more than 2-3 days out. I've noticed this year, the European and Canadian models have been more accurate than the NAM and GFS. I think the only shot we will have at a snowstorm is if the GFS is showing a low tracking somewhere around the panhandle of Florida at around 300 hours. Maybe with the Northern trend these models take, the Low may track into northern GA, or southern TN. Maybe we could stay away from the WAA and keep it all snow. Who knows. We are like a snow dome though, I do know that for sure.

I agreeee!!!!

These models are ridiculous anymore. I've began relying on the Canadian lately, not so much the European though (its relatively new, and has some kinks to work out i think). But the GFS is by far my favorite. But it always tracks TOO far south and gets my hopes up. I've learned to give the GFS whatever it shows, plus about about a mile PER hour into the future it shows it. So for every hour 156, 240, etc... I would add a mile worth of north tracking lol

The NAM seems to not be able to deal with cold air, or gulf moisture.

You would think that a new model would be able to address all of these issues.

[BlackcatAlum]

Of course Prestonsburg ended up with a wintry mix/rain during this event. A couple days ago the NAM and GFS had the center of low pressure tracking further and further south giving Eastern and Central KY a decent shot of getting at least some snow, but the closer it got, the models started shifting back North. Just like the heavy rain event we got last Sunday. Between 204 and 300 hours on the GFS, it showed a nice snowstorm for KY. It had the low tracking just south of the Bluegrass, turning up the East Coast, and having a secondary low form just off the Atlantic Coast. That is a prime time snowstorm for this area, but around the 156 hour of the GFS, it started taking the low way to the North and made it a Lakes Cutter. And sure enough, it ended up pushing warm air into the state, and leaving us with nothing but rain. The problem with the GFS is that you can't trust it no more than 2-3 days out. I've noticed this year, the European and Canadian models have been more accurate than the NAM and GFS. I think the only shot we will have at a snowstorm is if the GFS is showing a low tracking somewhere around the panhandle of Florida at around 300 hours. Maybe with the Northern trend these models take, the Low may track into northern GA, or southern TN. Maybe we could stay away from the WAA and keep it all snow. Who knows. We are like a snow dome though, I do know that for sure.

I agreeee!!!!

These models are ridiculous anymore. I've began relying on the Canadian lately, not so much the European though (its relatively new, and has some kinks to work out i think). But the GFS is by far my favorite. But it always tracks TOO far south and gets my hopes up. I've learned to give the GFS whatever it shows, plus about about a mile PER hour into the future it shows it. So for every hour 156, 240, etc... I would add a mile worth of north tracking lol

The NAM seems to not be able to deal with cold air, or gulf moisture.

You would think that a new model would be able to address all of these issues.

Say what?

Which one is European, and which one is Canadian?

[BCF4L]

I agreeee!!!!

These models are ridiculous anymore. I've began relying on the Canadian lately, not so much the European though (its relatively new, and has some kinks to work out i think). But the GFS is by far my favorite. But it always tracks TOO far south and gets my hopes up. I've learned to give the GFS whatever it shows, plus about about a mile PER hour into the future it shows it. So for every hour 156, 240, etc... I would add a mile worth of north tracking lol

The NAM seems to not be able to deal with cold air, or gulf moisture.

You would think that a new model would be able to address all of these issues.

They did some changes to the European model and it did make it worse. The Euro was probably the more reliable at one time, but now seems to be fading a bit. I still trust it more than I do the GFS beyond 3 days. If that storm for the 17th of this month verified, people around here would be very excited. A general 8-12 inch snowfall would occur from south central KY into Eastern KY. Central Virginia would get upwards of 2 feet. But the 18Z GFS had this same storm tracking into Michigan. So it's definitely too far away to pinpoint anything, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. The 12Z GFS also shows snow showers sticking around until the 20th of December which could keep a good snowpack around here for Christmas. It would be nice to have a white Christmas for a chage.

[ronald_reagan]

They did some changes to the European model and it did make it worse. The Euro was probably the more reliable at one time, but now seems to be fading a bit. I still trust it more than I do the GFS beyond 3 days. If that storm for the 17th of this month verified, people around here would be very excited. A general 8-12 inch snowfall would occur from south central KY into Eastern KY. Central Virginia would get upwards of 2 feet. But the 18Z GFS had this same storm tracking into Michigan. So it's definitely too far away to pinpoint anything, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. The 12Z GFS also shows snow showers sticking around until the 20th of December which could keep a good snowpack around here for Christmas. It would be nice to have a white Christmas for a chage.

What site are you using for your models? Do you have a site that has all the models? I have to go in between a few to get them all. I can get the GFS/NAM from NOAA, but unless I'm just missing something there, I have to go to other sites to get the CAN and Euro.

Where are you going? Thanks!

PM me from time to time if you want. Its enjoyable to talk about these things.

[ronald_reagan]

never mind, just found a site with all of them. stupid me.

[BCF4L]

I'm really just learning all of this stuff. Weather has always fascinated me. I do not have the patience to attend schooling for Meteorology, so therefore I learn as much as I can on my own. I started reading forecast models around 3 years ago, and am still learning about them. But yeah, any talks about this kind of thing definitely spark my interest greatly and I could talk for hours.

[BCF4L]

I use this site quite often. It's not particularly a site with models, but a web forum about weather. They usually post all models on there as they come out.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15

But to view models on my own, I use NOAA's website for the GFS and NAM. I did have a site once upon a time that showed all models but I have misplaced it. I do have a website that will give you accumulation totals based on certain model runs. You can view that on this site.

http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm

[ronald_reagan]

what are your favorite sites?? my interest peaked in the early and mid 90's... and just a few months ago, i got back into it... and now with the net, and having access to all the models, its overwhelming at times.

[ronald_reagan]

I'm just very optimistic this year, seeing such an early trend to southern storms. This 'clipper' was unbelievably south, and at such an early time in the year. The snowpack in Canada is building.. The polar vortex is churning... the gulf is warm... It just looks like a super year for snow lovers...

I mean its low after low up through 384hr..... probably 4-5 of them coming out of texas..... its amazing

[ComfortEagle]

what are your favorite sites??

Lol, http://www.farmersalmanac.com

[ronald_reagan]

Lol, http://www.farmersalmanac.com

Hey, its been right more than once!

I wonder how they decide what to say? lol... Woolyworms?

[ronald_reagan]

They did some changes to the European model and it did make it worse. The Euro was probably the more reliable at one time, but now seems to be fading a bit. I still trust it more than I do the GFS beyond 3 days. If that storm for the 17th of this month verified, people around here would be very excited. A general 8-12 inch snowfall would occur from south central KY into Eastern KY. Central Virginia would get upwards of 2 feet. But the 18Z GFS had this same storm tracking into Michigan. So it's definitely too far away to pinpoint anything, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. The 12Z GFS also shows snow showers sticking around until the 20th of December which could keep a good snowpack around here for Christmas. It would be nice to have a white Christmas for a chage.

we've got the 0z, 6z, and 12z all showing an extreme southern track on the GFS with much more cold air than the 18z and its northern track through chicago.

whats your impression on the speed these systems are moving? the upper level blasts of energy in the jet stream, and the vortex itself sitting in canada.... i just have a feeling its wanting to make a visit sometime in late december early january....

i'm convinced this is a year to remember.

[BlackcatAlum]

we've got the 0z, 6z, and 12z all showing an extreme southern track on the GFS with much more cold air than the 18z and its northern track through chicago.

whats your impression on the speed these systems are moving? the upper level blasts of energy in the jet stream, and the vortex itself sitting in canada.... i just have a feeling its wanting to make a visit sometime in late december early january....

i'm convinced this is a year to remember.

Don't get my hopes up, cause I'm still in high school, and I love snow days!

[15thRegionCrazy]

No snow in Richmond ... maybe I'll get some after I move up by Covington lol

[BCF4L]

Well by looking at the new 12Z run of the GFS, the center of low pressure has moved from central GA (6Z @ hr. 288 run) to eastern Arkansas (12Z @ hr. 276). So, basically the storm has slowed considerably. I haven't really sat down and studied the past few runs, just kinda glanced at them. On the latest run, you have high pressure in place in extreme Southern Canada, close to Northern New York, which is pretty well right where you want it to be. The thing is, around the 17th, you notice we are going back to a negative nao which is a plus. I'd like to say that the 6Z is correct, but unfortunately, it being 2 weeks away, and the snow deprivation here, I'd say it will end up trending north and we end up getting rain. Hopefully, I'm wrong. I'm definitely keeping an eye on this though.

[ronald_reagan]

Well by looking at the new 12Z run of the GFS, the center of low pressure has moved from central GA (6Z @ hr. 288 run) to eastern Arkansas (12Z @ hr. 276). So, basically the storm has slowed considerably. I haven't really sat down and studied the past few runs, just kinda glanced at them. On the latest run, you have high pressure in place in extreme Southern Canada, close to Northern New York, which is pretty well right where you want it to be. The thing is, around the 17th, you notice we are going back to a negative nao which is a plus. I'd like to say that the 6Z is correct, but unfortunately, it being 2 weeks away, and the snow deprivation here, I'd say it will end up trending north and we end up getting rain. Hopefully, I'm wrong. I'm definitely keeping an eye on this though.

The H in S Canada sounds great to supress the nothern movenment and usher in some cold air. I've not got to look at the runs as of yet. But since you've already gave me a pretty good idea what to expect, I'll just wait till the some later runs to to take a peak.

What does the 500mb look like? I noticed earlier that 36 hour precip on the 850mb was showing over .75" for much of KY (assuming 10:1, we could see a legit 6-10 across the state). Not for sure what run I was looking at now though...

I can't believe i'm even talkin about this... 276hr

i'm just excited this year.

I'll update later tonight.

[-STAT-]

Morehead got a good dose of snow last night, and it's snowing a little right now as we speak.

[BlackcatAlum]

It started snowing in Prestonsburg a little after 4 p.m. and hasn't stopped. I have about a quarter of and inch on the ground here. And if you know the Floyd County BOE, they will for sure call school off for tomorrow.

[ronald_reagan]

I've just looked over some models, the 00z, 6, 12, and 18... GFS

The 6z is taking a southern track from 276-288-300 going from southern/central mississipi, through bama, georgia, south carolina and off the coast, setting up a huge nor'easter well off the coast.

The 12z is taking the coarse from Cent Ark, across Kentucky, and through Ohio.. and has the biggest blast of cold air I've seen in YEARS this early in the year. Check out the 12z @ 312hr.

The 00z is showing a mild low pressure taking a southern track off the coast, minimal energy.

18z is all about cold air, with a plains storm with cold enough air to affect us.

Its interesting to watch these things play out. The fact is, its a long way off and we'll not know anything until about 5 days out, instead of the 10-12 it is now. The only thing we can tell at this point is, lots of cold, lots of energy, and someone is getting some snow.

[*Central_Cheer_Chick]

Here are a couple of pics from this mornings snow....LOLOL....

wow! Where do u live to get that much snow? all i got was slush

[ronald_reagan]

Also, the GFS 12z run, puts precip @ 1.25-1.5" for central ky. With local areas over maine and michigan getting up to 3 inches. If this run is right, and the temps are where predicted, we could see 15:1 ratio snow and 20+ inches on the ground.

However, I tend to believe that this won't happen. Instead... rain. LOL

[BlackcatAlum]

Also, the GFS 12z run, puts precip @ 1.25-1.5" for central ky. With local areas over maine and michigan getting up to 3 inches. If this run is right, and the temps are where predicted, we could see 15:1 ratio snow and 20+ inches on the ground.

However, I tend to believe that this won't happen. Instead... rain. LOL

[Playboy5]

It is coming down right now in Letcher County!!

[ronald_reagan]

BCF4L will be able to shed much more light on this. Especially when we get to the 144-160hr range. I'm sure he'll be impressed when he sees the temps the 12z is picking up.

[phs1986]

Snowing here too....

[torQQue]

We got snow in Morehead. My son didn't have to go to school today. I think we got about 1.5 inches.. Hope we get more!