Rate This Thread - 3A Final 16 by the Numbers.


Like this thread? Help the BGR community grow by sharing it with your friends.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-07-2017, 05:22 PM
AtlPirateFan's Avatar
AtlPirateFan AtlPirateFan is offline
Starter
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Cumming, GA
Posts: 1,429
Likes: 328
Liked 576 Times in 330 Posts
AtlPirateFan is on a distinguished road
Default 3A Final 16 by the Numbers
I am a stats nerd. I'm the type who keeps full spreadsheets to record the entire history of a Madden franchise because I don't think the game keeps enough records. So being the data nut that I am I wanted to look at the numbers and see how the top 16 in 3A shape up by the numbers. These are just for informational purposes and are no way any prediction of end of season standings. So here goes

Top 3 Scoring teams by total points
  1. Belfry - 535
  2. Boyle Co - 511
  3. Casey Co - 506

Top 3 Offenses by Total Yards Gained
  1. Boyle - 4969
  2. Casey - 4940
  3. Belfry - 4693

Top 3 Rushing Offenses
  1. Belfry - 4026
  2. Western Hills - 3827
  3. Floyd Central - 3343

Top 3 Passing Offenses
  1. Lex Cath - 2666
  2. Casey - 2386
  3. Caldwell - 2371

Top 3 Defenses by total points allowed
  1. Central - 114
  2. Etown - 114
  3. Corbin - 136
Note: Central takes the top spot based on total yards allowed

Top 3 Rush Defenses
  1. Central - 521
  2. Corbin - 655
  3. Boyle - 773

Top 3 Pass Defenses
  1. Belfry - 743
  2. LaRue - 756
  3. Waggener - 856

Top 3 Average Points per Play
  1. Belfry - 1.37
  2. Etown - 1.20
  3. Boyle Co - 1.00

Power Rankings All 16 teams
  1. Etown
  2. Boyle
  3. Belfry
  4. Corbin
  5. Casey
  6. Central
  7. Caldwell
  8. Western Hills
  9. Lex Cath
  10. Powell Co
  11. Floyd Central
  12. Waggener
  13. Bell Co
  14. Paducah Tilghman
  15. LaRue
  16. Garrard
Note: Power Ranking uses the Yards Per Point calculation used by the NCAA and NFL and adds it to the Yards Per Play calculation used by a few college football statisticians and then uses the average of the two. Because SoS is also hard to determine each team was given a SoS modifier, for each team they beat that has a winning record they recieved 1 pt towards the SoS.


A few interesting notes:
- Belfry's offense is explosive. 535 points on 390 plays from scrimmage. What this stat doesn't tell is that most of the plays come in the 2nd half when then JV and Freshman are getting reps. One game they scored 53 points on 17 total plays. They average 12 yards per play, ahead of Boyle (9.75 ypp) and Western Hills (9.24 ypp)
- Centrals Defense is scary against the run. Of the 521 yards allowed 30% of them (164) came in their two losses this year.
- Surprisingly of the 16 Boyle is among the top 3 worst against the pass allowing 1673 Passing yards, second to only Casey Co who has allowed 1722
- Lex Cath can't stop the run allowing 3740 rushing yards this year in total their defense has allowed over 5000 yards of total offense.
- Boyle and Casey are your most balanced offenses while Caldwell is the most passing bias. Belfry leads the lopsided rushing teams but at least 7 others are run heavy.

Will post more once have analyzed more.
Likes: (3)
BobcatForever (11-10-2017), TheBrahmaBull (11-07-2017), Westside (11-08-2017)
Send a private message to AtlPirateFan Add AtlPirateFan to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote

Click Here to become a member and join in on the discussions at BGR. Our membership is always 100% FREE.

  #2  
Old 11-07-2017, 06:03 PM
64SUR's Avatar
64SUR 64SUR is offline
All BlueGrass Rivals

Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 17,934
Likes: 3,233
Liked 3,690 Times in 2,693 Posts
64SUR will become famous soon enough
Default
Great looking stats.
Send a private message to 64SUR Add 64SUR to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-07-2017, 08:01 PM
jlow jlow is offline
Statistician
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 136
Likes: 4
Liked 37 Times in 27 Posts
jlow is on a distinguished road
Default
#16 Garrard beat #10Powell 38-0 to start the season. weird
Send a private message to jlow Add jlow to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-07-2017, 08:16 PM
Tica Tica is offline
Head Coach
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 2,021
Likes: 0
Liked 208 Times in 157 Posts
Tica will become famous soon enoughTica will become famous soon enough
Default
are you using stats filed with the KHSAA by the schools?
Send a private message to Tica Add Tica to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-07-2017, 11:08 PM
Glory_Days Glory_Days is offline
Statistician
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: McCracken County
Posts: 144
Likes: 49
Liked 12 Times in 12 Posts
Glory_Days is on a distinguished road
Default
I love stats, but.........give me Tilghman & Garrard over Floyd Central, Powell or Bell Co all day.
Send a private message to Glory_Days Add Glory_Days to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-08-2017, 07:34 AM
AtlPirateFan's Avatar
AtlPirateFan AtlPirateFan is offline
Starter
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Cumming, GA
Posts: 1,429
Likes: 328
Liked 576 Times in 330 Posts
AtlPirateFan is on a distinguished road
Default
Originally Posted by jlow View Post
#16 Garrard beat #10Powell 38-0 to start the season. weird
I think Garrard would win that head to head 9 times out of 10. These stats are indicative of how I think they are ranked in any way. Garrard played a tougher schedule and had three winds over winning programs while Powell didn't beat a single winning program. Garrard falls on the power ranking simply because they were so inefficient moving the ball and scoring.

Originally Posted by Tica View Post
are you using stats filed with the KHSAA by the schools?
That was the base data. I cross referenced it against what other schools posted and then filled in gaps with news articles and recaps to complete the data set.

Originally Posted by Glory_Days View Post
I love stats, but.........give me Tilghman & Garrard over Floyd Central, Powell or Bell Co all day.
I don't disagree at all. As I stated above the power ranking isn't meant to be a top 16 list but just how they stack up by the numbers this season. As like most seasons I think PT is better than their record, not a premiere team in 3A but better than their record suggests. Obviously SoS is hard to calculate in and while ETown by the numbers is the best team in the list I would rank them at probably 4th or 5th if I were doing a list by my gut as I think Belfry, Boyle and Corbin are better and Central may be even if their offense is lethargic.
Send a private message to AtlPirateFan Add AtlPirateFan to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-08-2017, 07:53 AM
Hound05's Avatar
Hound05 Hound05 is offline
Cheerleader
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Corbin, Kentucky
Posts: 430
Likes: 173
Liked 127 Times in 96 Posts
Hound05 is on a distinguished road
Default
Thatís some very good data sets to determine the PR. Iím with ya on ETown. After throwing in SOS into the fold I think theyíre around 5ish. But thatís strictly going by metrics. They could win the whole **** thing, this is just a good measuring stick in order to compare top teams. But as a OP kinda said, some of the data is skewed, as always is, in HS football. A couple running clocks-while the JV are in- coupled with some garbage time touchdown by opponents could take a team from the top to 4th or 5th. Especially with 4 of the teams being as close as they are. Still very impressive, better than Cantrellís crap. Good job and good luck yíall
Likes: (1)
AtlPirateFan (11-08-2017)
Send a private message to Hound05 Add Hound05 to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-08-2017, 10:55 AM
Tica Tica is offline
Head Coach
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 2,021
Likes: 0
Liked 208 Times in 157 Posts
Tica will become famous soon enoughTica will become famous soon enough
Default
The fact that Powell is rated where it is would suggest there is yet a bit of data refinement to be done. Perhaps less offensive weighting.
Likes: (1)
OutlawJoseyWales (11-08-2017)
Send a private message to Tica Add Tica to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-08-2017, 12:29 PM
Hound05's Avatar
Hound05 Hound05 is offline
Cheerleader
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Corbin, Kentucky
Posts: 430
Likes: 173
Liked 127 Times in 96 Posts
Hound05 is on a distinguished road
Default
This is objective measuring. Subjective ones are the AP poll. You canít look at any team in here and say they should be moved up or down, thatís not the basis of his data.
Likes: (1)
TheBrahmaBull (11-08-2017)
Send a private message to Hound05 Add Hound05 to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-08-2017, 12:47 PM
OutlawJoseyWales OutlawJoseyWales is offline
2nd String
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 825
Likes: 175
Liked 207 Times in 146 Posts
OutlawJoseyWales is on a distinguished road
Default
Originally Posted by Tica View Post
The fact that Powell is rated where it is would suggest there is yet a bit of data refinement to be done. Perhaps less offensive weighting.
I agree. Powell is awful. Sorry.
Send a private message to OutlawJoseyWales Add OutlawJoseyWales to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 11-08-2017, 12:48 PM
Tica Tica is offline
Head Coach
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 2,021
Likes: 0
Liked 208 Times in 157 Posts
Tica will become famous soon enoughTica will become famous soon enough
Default
It is not objective measuring. It is measuring inclusive of some data and exclusive of other data and there also was an arbitrary assignment of some values. Plus you are assuming the public data is accurate, which we know at least some of it is not.

I applaud the effort. But power ratings do not necessarily translate into game day predictability.
Send a private message to Tica Add Tica to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-08-2017, 02:08 PM
AtlPirateFan's Avatar
AtlPirateFan AtlPirateFan is offline
Starter
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Cumming, GA
Posts: 1,429
Likes: 328
Liked 576 Times in 330 Posts
AtlPirateFan is on a distinguished road
Default
Originally Posted by Tica View Post
It is not objective measuring. It is measuring inclusive of some data and exclusive of other data and there also was an arbitrary assignment of some values. Plus you are assuming the public data is accurate, which we know at least some of it is not.

I applaud the effort. But power ratings do not necessarily translate into game day predictability.

Game day predictability was never the goal. The data accuracy is a legitimate concern, there were some places where reconciling data posted by one school wasn't exactly matched up to data posted by another school but for the most part it was within a percentage of error that was acceptable. PT was the biggest offender and their posted stats on KHSAA especially defensively were way off. It took time and had to be compiled game by game but the numbers should be close. Also I am not sure what data is being excluded. Defensive data is being included.

Also as Hound05 stated is that it's meant to be objective based on on field performance alone. 30 years from now when people look at Powell County's 8-4 record they are going to see Powell had a solid year and a District Title. No one will remember they won 8 games on a crappy schedule.

I adjusted the SoS weight a bit more using CalPreps SoS ratings. It made things better but gives Lex Cath too much boost in my opinion. If I weren't using numbers to build the list I would slip Lex Cath below ETwon and could be happy with the list as a Top 16 remaining. The Power Ranking was only included as a fun aside and is not attempt to say "this is the pecking order"

Current list:
Boyle
Lexington Catholic - Heavily benefits from SoS
Belfry
Central
Corbin
Waggener
Etown
Garrard Co
Caldwell
Paducah Tilghman
Western Hills
Bell
Casey
Floyd Central
LaRue
Powell
Likes: (2)
Hound05 (11-08-2017), Malcolm Ex (11-09-2017)
Send a private message to AtlPirateFan Add AtlPirateFan to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-08-2017, 03:06 PM
Hound05's Avatar
Hound05 Hound05 is offline
Cheerleader
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Corbin, Kentucky
Posts: 430
Likes: 173
Liked 127 Times in 96 Posts
Hound05 is on a distinguished road
Default
Originally Posted by Tica View Post
It is not objective measuring. It is measuring inclusive of some data and exclusive of other data and there also was an arbitrary assignment of some values. Plus you are assuming the public data is accurate, which we know at least some of it is not.

I applaud the effort. But power ratings do not necessarily translate into game day predictability.
Itís NOT meant for game predictability. Thatís the whole point of it. Yea the data used is a little questionable because ďofficialĒ records in HS games arenít good as gold. Itís a platform to compare and further analyze somewhat comparable teams performance on the field. Just like it is for college FB/BBall power rankings.
Send a private message to Hound05 Add Hound05 to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-08-2017, 03:36 PM
Jackson Purchase Jackson Purchase is online now
Statistician
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 161
Likes: 44
Liked 25 Times in 15 Posts
Jackson Purchase is on a distinguished road
Default
I love it Altpiratefan. You must really like 3A football to take all that time developing your algorithm. Probably any of the top 5 could win it all. But when they take the field, get punched in the mouth. It'll be the team that gets back up.....and punches back even harder.
Send a private message to Jackson Purchase Add Jackson Purchase to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-09-2017, 09:55 AM
Malcolm Ex Malcolm Ex is offline
Equipment Manager
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 54
Likes: 8
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Malcolm Ex is on a distinguished road
Default
Casey ahead of central? Nah, I am not seeing that. 3A bout to find out Nothing has changed at State Champ High.
Likes: (1)
BeastOfTheEast59 (11-09-2017)
Send a private message to Malcolm Ex Add Malcolm Ex to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-09-2017, 11:32 AM
AtlPirateFan's Avatar
AtlPirateFan AtlPirateFan is offline
Starter
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Cumming, GA
Posts: 1,429
Likes: 328
Liked 576 Times in 330 Posts
AtlPirateFan is on a distinguished road
Default
Originally Posted by Malcolm Ex View Post
Casey ahead of central? Nah, I am not seeing that. 3A bout to find out Nothing has changed at State Champ High.
The original power ranking was based on a poorly crafted SoS. The new one listed two posts above is more accurate using a better SoS model. That being said as has been said in this thread many times the power ranking isn't a who can beat who list, it is an analysis based on widely used and accepted algorithms to determine on field tangible performance. It is not an indicator of talent level. The new list is pretty accurate and that is my fault for not using a better SoS calculation in the original list.
Likes: (1)
64SUR (11-09-2017)
Send a private message to AtlPirateFan Add AtlPirateFan to Your Contacts Top of page Reply With Quote
Reply

  BGR-Kentucky High School Sports - BlueGrassRivals » Kentucky High School and Middle School Sports » Football

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -9. The time now is 05:04 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.