[FanofThegame12]

I'm a 13th region guy, but I love how there's so much support for the 14th and 15th regions on here. I always here about a very solid quality team playing in either the 14th and 15th regions. I'm curious to know everybody's opinion's on the top teams in these three regions. If it helps, here's my thoughts for top three teams in each region and teams that I think people should watch out for.

13th:

1.) South Laurel - I have them being the top team in the region seeing that they return basically their entire team from their Region Championship team last year.
2.) Harlan County - I honestly believe they will have a great year, and get over the 1st round hump. Like South Laurel they return a strong core group.
3.) North Laurel - I have them barely edging out Middlesboro. Only because they return more than Middlesboro. Being led by UK commit Marcus Carson doesn't hurt.

- Potential teams: Middlesboro, Whitley County, Clay Co.


14th:

1.) Hazard - We had a chance to play Hazard last year and I was impressed with some of the young talent they have.
2.) Estill County - I put them here due to the fact that they were a very solid fundamental team last year that competed with and beat Powell County. And return everyone.
3.)Powell County - I believe Powell County could be either 1 or 2 but I put them at three due to the fact I think Estill and Hazard will two teams to reckon with but I could be wrong.

-Potential teams: Letcher Co Central, Breathitt Co, Leslie Co.

15th:

1.) Johnson Central - The only reason I gave Johnson Central the nod over Pikeville was because Pikeville lost one of/if not their best player. But Johnson Central returns a very talented team.
2.)Pikeville - A very strong program that always has competive, talented teams.
3.)Prestonburg - We had the opportunity to play this team last year and I thought they were a fundamental, hitting team that can compete. Mr. Simpkins has them going in the right direction.

-Potential teams: Belfry, Paintsville.

[M'boroYellowJacket]

Middlesboro has PLENTY of Potential. Jackets for 13th regional champs! Because at least have a chance in Basketball and Baseball.. unlike football. lol

[Bob Seger]

I'm a 13th region guy, but I love how there's so much support for the 14th and 15th regions on here. I always here about a very solid quality team playing in either the 14th and 15th regions. I'm curious to know everybody's opinion's on the top teams in these three regions. If it helps, here's my thoughts for top three teams in each region and teams that I think people should watch out for.

13th:

1.) South Laurel - I have them being the top team in the region seeing that they return basically their entire team from their Region Championship team last year.
2.) Harlan County - I honestly believe they will have a great year, and get over the 1st round hump. Like South Laurel they return a strong core group.
3.) North Laurel - I have them barely edging out Middlesboro. Only because they return more than Middlesboro. Being led by UK commit Marcus Carson doesn't hurt.

- Potential teams: Middlesboro, Whitley County, Clay Co.


14th:

1.) Hazard - We had a chance to play Hazard last year and I was impressed with some of the young talent they have.
2.) Estill County - I put them here due to the fact that they were a very solid fundamental team last year that competed with and beat Powell County. And return everyone.
3.)Powell County - I believe Powell County could be either 1 or 2 but I put them at three due to the fact I think Estill and Hazard will two teams to reckon with but I could be wrong.

-Potential teams: Letcher Co Central, Breathitt Co, Leslie Co.

15th:

1.) Johnson Central - The only reason I gave Johnson Central the nod over Pikeville was because Pikeville lost one of/if not their best player. But Johnson Central returns a very talented team.
2.)Pikeville - A very strong program that always has competive, talented teams.
3.)Prestonburg - We had the opportunity to play this team last year and I thought they were a fundamental, hitting team that can compete. Mr. Simpkins has them going in the right direction.

-Potential teams: Belfry, Paintsville.

I'm thinking that Belfry graduated very heavily. I think that Lawrence will be much improved and I think that Magoffin Co. will be a real threat. Magoffin only lost one starter, with their top two pitchers returning. I also think that Chris Lawson will gradually have East Ridge among the regions top teams as well.

[OffTheHook]

I'm a 13th region guy, but I love how there's so much support for the 14th and 15th regions on here. I always here about a very solid quality team playing in either the 14th and 15th regions. I'm curious to know everybody's opinion's on the top teams in these three regions. If it helps, here's my thoughts for top three teams in each region and teams that I think people should watch out for.

13th:

1.) South Laurel - I have them being the top team in the region seeing that they return basically their entire team from their Region Championship team last year.
2.) Harlan County - I honestly believe they will have a great year, and get over the 1st round hump. Like South Laurel they return a strong core group.
3.) North Laurel - I have them barely edging out Middlesboro. Only because they return more than Middlesboro. Being led by UK commit Marcus Carson doesn't hurt.

- Potential teams: Middlesboro, Whitley County, Clay Co.


14th:

1.) Hazard - We had a chance to play Hazard last year and I was impressed with some of the young talent they have.
2.) Estill County - I put them here due to the fact that they were a very solid fundamental team last year that competed with and beat Powell County. And return everyone.
3.)Powell County - I believe Powell County could be either 1 or 2 but I put them at three due to the fact I think Estill and Hazard will two teams to reckon with but I could be wrong.

-Potential teams: Letcher Co Central, Breathitt Co, Leslie Co.

15th:

1.) Johnson Central - The only reason I gave Johnson Central the nod over Pikeville was because Pikeville lost one of/if not their best player. But Johnson Central returns a very talented team.
2.)Pikeville - A very strong program that always has competive, talented teams.
3.)Prestonburg - We had the opportunity to play this team last year and I thought they were a fundamental, hitting team that can compete. Mr. Simpkins has them going in the right direction.

-Potential teams: Belfry, Paintsville.

15th Region:
I think Paintsville will be one of your top teams for sure. They only lost 3 everyday starters in Sublett, Stewart and Caldwell (Transfer).

Returning Burchett, Pelphrey & VanHoose for some solid senior leadership. Mix in Miller, Burchell & Kash. I like what I am seeing.

Pelphrey should be healthy this season and the additions of Kent Phelps and Lane and Luke Daniels. Filling the open spots shouldn't be any problem with these kids.

[Bob Seger]

15th Region:
I think Paintsville will be one of your top teams for sure. They only lost 3 everyday starters in Sublett, Stewart and Caldwell (Transfer).

Returning Burchett, Pelphrey & VanHoose for some solid senior leadership. Mix in Miller, Burchell & Kash. I like what I am seeing.

Pelphrey should be healthy this season and the additions of Kent Phelps and Lane and Luke Daniels. Filling the open spots shouldn't be any problem with these kids.

I agree Hook. I didn't mention them because they were already listed. Personally I think the 57th will have the strongest showing in the region this year while throwing PBurg and Pikeville to the mix. As it always does, it'll all come down to pitching and IMO Magoffin will be a tough out.

[OffTheHook]

^I agree.

[Micro-Brew]

Chris will do a good job at East Ridge with what he has. They will have a long way to go. Yes Belfry lost alot, but should continue to be competetive. Pikeville will be slightly weaker than last year, but Hamilton can beat anyone when he's on the mound. Magoffin, Paintsville, Prestonsburg, and Lawrence Co as you guys mentioned will all be solid contenders. I don't think they will be 1 heavy favorite this year, which to me makes a very exciting season. Good luck to all teams!!

[baseballfan]

Seger how well do you think Magoffin will do with the coaching changes that has been made there? Do you think that will effect them in anyway this season?

[Bob Seger]

Seger how well do you think Magoffin will do with the coaching changes that has been made there? Do you think that will effect them in anyway this season?

Well I dont know. Brenton has done a real good job there. He worked on the pitching aspect of the game probably more than what has ever been done, so if Pup can ride them out for this year with what they've picked up, then I think they are a serious contender.. Blanton has a real strong arm as does Howard. I think they have to be able to throw strikes though. Not saying they will win it, but I think they can be more than competetive. As far as the future for the program, I really dont know how much knowledge Pup has with baseball, but he is a real good motivator, and should get kids out to at least play anyways. I've always liked Pup and I hope the program continues to do well.

[baseballfan]

Well I dont know. Brenton has done a real good job there. He worked on the pitching aspect of the game probably more than what has ever been done, so if Pup can ride them out for this year with what they've picked up, then I think they are a serious contender.. Blanton has a real strong arm as does Howard. I think they have to be able to throw strikes though. Not saying they will win it, but I think they can be more than competetive. As far as the future for the program, I really dont know how much knowledge Pup has with baseball, but he is a real good motivator, and should get kids out to at least play anyways. I've always liked Pup and I hope the program continues to do well.

Pups ability to coach don't worry me. What some people don't know is that pup actually played college baseball and if he can bring in the motivation and play he got out of his basketball teams to the players on the baseball team he will be suessful. What worries me is the how the players will do under him on his first year. Because most of the players playing for magoffin has been coached under Dials since middle school. And sometimes a new coach coming in can be difficult to get used to the first year. Should be a great season of baseball to watch tho.

[FanofThegame12]

I'm loving all the feedback from the 15th region guys. I never really put great thought into Magoffin County and there pitching as well as Belfry graduating heavily. But like you guys said East Ridge will be an improved team. Stated above somebody said that the 57th district will have a strong showing. I completely agree. I know we play Prestonsburg this year again. I would love to see HC's coach get teams like Johnson Central, Pikeville, Paintsville on the schedule as well.

[Bob Seger]

Pups ability to coach don't worry me. What some people don't know is that pup actually played college baseball and if he can bring in the motivation and play he got out of his basketball teams to the players on the baseball team he will be suessful. What worries me is the how the players will do under him on his first year. Because most of the players playing for magoffin has been coached under Dials since middle school. And sometimes a new coach coming in can be difficult to get used to the first year. Should be a great season of baseball to watch tho.

See I didn't know that either. That should make things go even smoother. Good luck to you guys this year.

[Panther Thunder]

Pikeville will need to win games with pitching and defense. But that is not saying they won't win. Burke And JakeHam will give a lot of good outings. Defensively, you lose a 4 year starter at SS that really hid a lot of hits/runs. Without Gavin at SS, a good number of balls get through over the past few seasons that could have changed a lot of things. Not saying the Panthers can't put a nice fielder out there, but Miller's range is near impossible to beat at the HS level and as he got older, the errors went down significantly.

Offensively, PHS was honestly not very good last season. And they lost a HUGE chunk of production. They will need to manufacture and maximize opportunity. Last year I introduced this chart:

"If you tell me that against a quality opponent our run production was x here is how I feel feel about a win in terms of percentages:


1- 15%
2- 25%
3- 40%
4- 50%
5- 70%
6- 80%
7- 85%
8- 90%
9- 95%
10+- 99%

IMO, the 5 run mark is the big breaking point that turns a toss up into a win most of the time with A solid game on the hill."

To back that up, Out of Pikeville's 8 losses, all 8 came in games which the Panthers failed to score 5 runs. Only two of the 8 losses did the Panthers score 4 runs. Only in 4 of 8 did the Panthers score at least 3 runs. And in 7 of 8 the Panthers scored at least 2 runs. The lowest output of the year in a loss was 1 run, one time. But, in those games PHS would have only won 2 of those games with 5 runs on the board. Meaning they need even MORE runs against these quality teams.

In games which the Panthers' opponents score 4 or more runs, PHS was 1-7. The good news is, my needing 5 to win was somewhat overstated. Opponents only scored 3+ in 11 out of 35 games. 2+ in 13 out of 35. 1+ in 23 out of 35. And Pikeville shut teams out in 12 games. That would get our win % of 65-75% at about 3-3.5 runs.

BUT, if you notice, I said against QUALITY opponents (Which kind of makes my previous paragraph useless lol because this will contradict the good in it). I would say 4 (and that is generous) of the 12 shutouts were against quality teams. 7 quality wins when allowing 1 run. That is 11 quality wins when holding team to under 2 runs. 0 quality wins when allowing 2 runs (Only 2 instances). 0 quality wins when allowing 3 runs (not many of those either). 1 quality win when allowing 4 runs.

So that will equate to a total record vs. quality opponents (IMO) at 12-8. All losses were quality losses.

In these 20 games, Opponents scored 60 runs. That is 60 of 74 total runs allowed in 20 out of 35 games. That means in 15 other games, teams combined for a whopping 14 runs. In the 20 quality games, Pikeville scored 79 runs. That means in the other 15, the Panthers scored 140 runs.

140-14 in 15 non-quality games, averages out to a score of:

Pikeville 9.3 Non-Quality Opponent 0.93

79-60 in 20 quality games, averages out to a score of:

Pikeville 3.95 Quality-Opponent 3


Now, this data basically means, that chart I pulled out of thin air was pretty spot on. With an average score of 4-3, you will be in a toss up when you score 3 runs or 40-60% or 60-40% when you account for random luck, etc... (LOOK AT THE CHART AT WHAT 4 SAYS.) 4 runs, you will probably win 50% of the time against a quality opponent. When you get to 5 runs, you are putting yourself in such a good position, as you are going on the good side of the range. 2 or 3 runs, you are staring a loss in the face. You have to have a high-end of the range pitching/defensive performance to come away with the win.

What does all this mean?

-One, I Am bragging that I came up with this after 5 games and it worked out so well.

-Two, PHS lost a ton of production. That 12-8 record without that production could easily be 8-12 or worse. The Panthers must find ways to suppress opposing offenses (Drastically improve K:BB ratio, limit errors, limit pitch counts, do not allow runners to advance) and/or find ways to better maximize their run volume (Higher stolen base success rate, higher OBPs -OBP is the most underrated offensive statistic-, LOWER K RATE -putting the ball in play put pressure on the D that K's do not, See more pitches) than what they did last season.

I think it is very important for the staff to focus in on those themes in parenthesis. If they can really make them a points of emphasis, and the players buy in, this can be another successful season. When you lack the just overall "baseball savvy" that the program has had for the past 4 years, focusing on the "money ball" or "numbers game" can be incredibly effective. I have studied up the numbers following FSU baseball and there are so many subtle numbers that could turn an average season into a great one.

This is a vague preview, but just something for thought until practice starts and we learn more. This took a while to write up, hope it makes some sense to you all lol. HAIL PIKEVILLE!

[OffTheHook]

^Gotta love us stat guys !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Micro-Brew]

Good to see Billy Bean is on BGR. Just kidding. Good job Panther Thunder!!!

[Hitters_Count]

Just because you return more players than another team, that doesn't necessarily equate to being better. Just my Opinion.

[Copperhead11]

I'm a 13th region guy, but I love how there's so much support for the 14th and 15th regions on here. I always here about a very solid quality team playing in either the 14th and 15th regions. I'm curious to know everybody's opinion's on the top teams in these three regions. If it helps, here's my thoughts for top three teams in each region and teams that I think people should watch out for.

13th:

1.) South Laurel - I have them being the top team in the region seeing that they return basically their entire team from their Region Championship team last year.
2.) Harlan County - I honestly believe they will have a great year, and get over the 1st round hump. Like South Laurel they return a strong core group.
3.) North Laurel - I have them barely edging out Middlesboro. Only because they return more than Middlesboro. Being led by UK commit Marcus Carson doesn't hurt.

- Potential teams: Middlesboro, Whitley County, Clay Co.


14th:

1.) Hazard - We had a chance to play Hazard last year and I was impressed with some of the young talent they have.
2.) Estill County - I put them here due to the fact that they were a very solid fundamental team last year that competed with and beat Powell County. And return everyone.
3.)Powell County - I believe Powell County could be either 1 or 2 but I put them at three due to the fact I think Estill and Hazard will two teams to reckon with but I could be wrong.

-Potential teams: Letcher Co Central, Breathitt Co, Leslie Co.

15th:

1.) Johnson Central - The only reason I gave Johnson Central the nod over Pikeville was because Pikeville lost one of/if not their best player. But Johnson Central returns a very talented team.
2.)Pikeville - A very strong program that always has competive, talented teams.
3.)Prestonburg - We had the opportunity to play this team last year and I thought they were a fundamental, hitting team that can compete. Mr. Simpkins has them going in the right direction.

-Potential teams: Belfry, Paintsville.

Glad to see that someone believes that Whitley County has potential to have a great season. Played a lot of young kids last year and they will still be young this year, but could shock some people.

[Hitters_Count]

I believe Knox will suprise many teams this year in the 13th. Just like South last year, they are young. But dont mistake that with inexperienced as many of them played travel ball and as a whole played very well in summer ball against HC, Clay and McCreary. Dont see them as a threat to the Regional title, but they will certainly make some noise.

[Bob Seger]

Glad to see that someone believes that Whitley County has potential to have a great season. Played a lot of young kids last year and they will still be young this year, but could shock some people.

Since they have an old Johnson Co. boy at the helm, that's probably about right.:biggrin:

[Panther Thunder]

I'm thinking that Belfry graduated very heavily. I think that Lawrence will be much improved and I think that Magoffin Co. will be a real threat. Magoffin only lost one starter, with their top two pitchers returning. I also think that Chris Lawson will gradually have Pike Central among the regions top teams as well.

Fixed this for you. :biggrin:

[Bob Seger]

Fixed this for you. :biggrin:

Is he at Pike Central now?

[Panther Thunder]

Is he at Pike Central now?

Looks pretty likely from everything I hear.

[Bob Seger]

Looks pretty likely from everything I hear.

Well, I didn't know that. I would have figured our mutual buddy would have said something about that.

[Panther Thunder]

Well, I didn't know that. I would have figured our mutual buddy would have said something about that.

I told his son, who was probably too busy worrying about getting some degree in Biology or something to care about high school baseball anymore and check his texts lol.

[MHS Parent4Life]

I'm a 13th region guy, but I love how there's so much support for the 14th and 15th regions on here. I always here about a very solid quality team playing in either the 14th and 15th regions. I'm curious to know everybody's opinion's on the top teams in these three regions. If it helps, here's my thoughts for top three teams in each region and teams that I think people should watch out for.

13th:

1.) South Laurel - I have them being the top team in the region seeing that they return basically their entire team from their Region Championship team last year.
2.) Harlan County - I honestly believe they will have a great year, and get over the 1st round hump. Like South Laurel they return a strong core group.
3.) North Laurel - I have them barely edging out Middlesboro. Only because they return more than Middlesboro. Being led by UK commit Marcus Carson doesn't hurt.

- Potential teams: Middlesboro, Whitley County, Clay Co.


14th:

1.) Hazard - We had a chance to play Hazard last year and I was impressed with some of the young talent they have.
2.) Estill County - I put them here due to the fact that they were a very solid fundamental team last year that competed with and beat Powell County. And return everyone.
3.)Powell County - I believe Powell County could be either 1 or 2 but I put them at three due to the fact I think Estill and Hazard will two teams to reckon with but I could be wrong.

-Potential teams: Letcher Co Central, Breathitt Co, Leslie Co.

15th:

1.) Johnson Central - The only reason I gave Johnson Central the nod over Pikeville was because Pikeville lost one of/if not their best player. But Johnson Central returns a very talented team.
2.)Pikeville - A very strong program that always has competive, talented teams.
3.)Prestonburg - We had the opportunity to play this team last year and I thought they were a fundamental, hitting team that can compete. Mr. Simpkins has them going in the right direction.

-Potential teams: Belfry, Paintsville.

This year's Middlesboro team will be better than last year. With that in mind, Middlesboro should be right there will SL. I know HC has Boggs coming back but 1) Middlesboro beat him last year in the district championship 2) They are very weak at catcher when Boggs pitches.

Additionally, Lucas Crawford, whom beat HC twice last year, is returning as a junior for the Jackets.

Many people probably don't know this but Middlesboro got a big time transfer from TN this year as well. He is a senior SS and will step right in and start. He will also be right there with Crawford as far as pitching goes. They are very excited to get him.

[cougarpride08]

Sad that no one is mentioning Letcher Central. We lost no one from last years semi finals appearance in region. We have to be one of the favorites.

[HDE]

This year's Middlesboro team will be better than last year. With that in mind, Middlesboro should be right there will SL. I know HC has Boggs coming back but 1) Middlesboro beat him last year in the district championship 2) They are very weak at catcher when Boggs pitches.

Additionally, Lucas Crawford, whom beat HC twice last year, is returning as a junior for the Jackets.

Many people probably don't know this but Middlesboro got a big time transfer from TN this year as well. He is a senior SS and will step right in and start. He will also be right there with Crawford as far as pitching goes. They are very excited to get him.

Middlesboro did not beat Boggs.

[Pikeville]

Pikeville with Hamilton and Burke will be a tough game when they pitch.

Finding other starting pitching will be a tall order for the Panther coaching staff.

[OffTheHook]

Sad that no one is mentioning Letcher Central. We lost no one from last years semi finals appearance in region. We have to be one of the favorites.

You los Dollarhide.

[cougarpride08]

One guy! Come on. We have a lot more on that staff to compensate for him. Excellent freshman group! Top 2 in the region behind Estill for sure.