[Bob Seger]

Romney 52%
Obama 45%

Poll of likely voters continues to widen. I think I am correct in stating that this includes one day of post debate results.

Is it safe to say that Romney is now starting to run away with it?

[Hoot Gibson]

No presidential candidate has ever won an election in which they trailed in the Gallup poll by 6 points or more at this point in the campaign and Romney leads by 7 points. It is too early to pop the champagne corks, but I would rather be in Romney's position than in Obama's predicament right now.

[TheRealThing]

No presidential candidate has ever won an election in which they trailed in the Gallup poll by 6 points or more at this point in the campaign and Romney leads by 7 points. It is too early to pop the champagne corks, but I would rather be in Romney's position than in Obama's predicament right now.

And, barring an inconcievably bad faux-pas by Romney, it can only get worse for the president. The White House cover story about this deal in Benghazi has begun to open most folks eyes.

[Hoot Gibson]

And, barring an inconcievably bad faux-pas by Romney, it can only get worse for the president. The White House cover story about this deal in Benghazi has begun to open most folks eyes.

I think Romney taking the opportunity of the debates to educate voters on Obama's complete failure on the economy has been the turning point in the campaign. The handling of the Benghazi attack has hurt Obama some, but I expect that the pain is only beginning.

Obama might as well call in sick Monday night. Bob Schieffer is a liberal but I don't believe that he will try to protect Obama the way that Candy Crowley did during the last debate. I don't think that Schieffer could bail out Obama even if he shared the questions with Obama in advance and made the debate another two on one event. As bad as Obama has been for the economy, he may have been even worse on foreign policy.

[TheRealThing]

I think Romney taking the opportunity of the debates to educate voters on Obama's complete failure on the economy has been the turning point in the campaign. The handling of the Benghazi attack has hurt Obama some, but I expect that the pain is only beginning.

Obama might as well call in sick Monday night. Bob Schieffer is a liberal but I don't believe that he will try to protect Obama the way that Candy Crowley did during the last debate. I don't think that Schieffer could bail out Obama even if he shared the questions with Obama in advance and made the debate another two on one event. As bad as Obama has been for the economy, he may have been even worse on foreign policy.

In fact, I believe it is likely that Schieffer will do just that. Thankfully, Obama's bob & weave isn't quite as artful as he might like to think it is. I hope, the poor manner in which O handled Kerry Ladka's question about security at the Benghazi embassy during Tuesday night's debate, proves you right.

[Panther Thunder]

No presidential candidate has ever won an election in which they trailed in the Gallup poll by 6 points or more at this point in the campaign and Romney leads by 7 points. It is too early to pop the champagne corks, but I would rather be in Romney's position than in Obama's predicament right now.

i thought Reagan came back from a 6-pt deficit around this time?

[Hoot Gibson]

i thought Reagan came back from a 6-pt deficit around this time?

He did, but according to the article linked below, that Gallup poll was taken of registered voters instead of likely voters.

GALLUP: Mitt Romney Now Has A Gigantic 6-Point Lead Over Obama (from Business Insider)

[TheRealVille]

You might want to consider that polls are to landline phones, and a very big percentage of younger, and many,many other people don't have landlines anymore. Most polls are only in English also, but you can bet that when election day comes, most Spanish speaking people will know the difference in the words Obama and Romney. I didn't realize the landline thing until today. It might make a difference.

[TheRealThing]

Have to admit, I've never heard that one before. Will democrat staffers never cease to amaze?

[TheRealVille]

Have to admit, I've never heard that one before. Will democrat staffers never cease to amaze?

Google is your friend. Check just about any link on this page, where I typed "are cell phones used in polls". Some call cell phones, but a lot do not. They claim also, that since cell some cell users get charged going and coming, they tend to no cooperate well, when called on their cell phone. Gallup does call some cell phones, but mostly landline.


http://www.google.com/search?client=safa...8&oe=UTF-8

[Stardust]

I am 100% in my poll

[TheRealVille]

I am 100% in my poll

I almost am. :wink:

[TheRealVille]

Obama is holding his own in 3 swing states. We shall see. It speaks volumes that Obama is leading in Mitt's state, and his mate's state.

[TheRealVille]

The one conservatives live and die by does not call cells, therefore leaving out a big chunk of young voters.

Do You Poll Cell Phones?
While we do not currently call cell phones directly when conducting our surveys, to reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview a demographically diverse panel. Just like our telephone surveys, respondents for this approach are selected on a random basis to insure the reliability of the sample. As a result, you cannot sign up to participate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ut_us/faqs

[Hoot Gibson]

The one conservatives live and die by does not call cells, therefore leaving out a big chunk of young voters.





http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ut_us/faqs

How did Rasmussen do predicting the 2008 election, RV? Was Rasmussen not judged the most accurate poll four years ago? I believe that they were.

[TheRealThing]

Google is your friend. Check just about any link on this page, where I typed "are cell phones used in polls". Some call cell phones, but a lot do not. They claim also, that since cell some cell users get charged going and coming, they tend to no cooperate well, when called on their cell phone. Gallup does call some cell phones, but mostly landline.


http://www.google.com/search?client=safa...8&oe=UTF-8

Hey, I'm not knocking it, if you want to pin your hopes to cell phones I say that is as good as anything.

[TheRealVille]

Hey, I'm not knocking it, if you want to pin your hopes to cell phones I say that is as good as anything.

You were the one that was trying to make it look like I was lying about it. I was merely showing you that you weren't as smart as you would like to believe. It really doesn't matter to me who wins nowadays. I hate it that a lot of people "might" be putting false hope in a Romney that will sink them even further down than Bush did(that we are still down from, btw), but oh well. Neither will bother me much. I'm not pinning my retirement hopes on a hot dog stand like some are.

[TheRealThing]

You were the one that was trying to make it look like I was lying about it. I was merely showing you that you weren't as smart as you would like to believe.

NO, I said the consensus was that Romney's address was better than Obama's. I've listened to the news all day and I have yet to hear anybody try to dispute that. See, whether you lie or not is maus nicht to me.

[TheRealVille]

N

[Wildcatk23]

Americans who watched the second presidential debate say Barack Obama did a better job than Mitt Romney, by 51% to 38% -- a stark contrast to the first debate, of which most named Romney the winner.

Per gallup

[TheRealVille]

NO, I said the consensus was that Romney's address was better than Obama's. I've listened to the news all day and I have yet to hear anybody try to dispute that. See, whether you lie or not is maus nicht to me.

Let me go slow and post the quotes in sequence for you.


Hoot post a link to a pol, I returned

You might want to consider that polls are to landline phones, and a very big percentage of younger, and many,many other people don't have landlines anymore. Most polls are only in English also, but you can bet that when election day comes, most Spanish speaking people will know the difference in the words Obama and Romney. I didn't realize the landline thing until today. It might make a difference.

To which you replied

Have to admit, I've never heard that one before. Will democrat staffers never cease to amaze?

Then I showed you where what I posted was true,

Google is your friend. Check just about any link on this page, where I typed "are cell phones used in polls". Some call cell phones, but a lot do not. They claim also, that since cell some cell users get charged going and coming, they tend to no cooperate well, when called on their cell phone. Gallup does call some cell phones, but mostly landline.


http://www.google.com/search?client=...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Then you,

Hey, I'm not knocking it, if you want to pin your hopes to cell phones I say that is as good as anything.

Then me, which will direct back to where you quoted what I posted above, "Have to admit, I've never heard that one before. Will democrat staffers never cease to amaze me"

You were the one that was trying to make it look like I was lying about it. I was merely showing you that you weren't as smart as you would like to believe. It really doesn't matter to me who wins nowadays. I hate it that a lot of people "might" be putting false hope in a Romney that will sink them even further down than Bush did(that we are still down from, btw), but oh well. Neither will bother me much. I'm not pinning my retirement hopes on a hot dog stand like some are.

The you, and I don't know what in the hell this has to do with the back and forth cell phone poll talk, but here goes,

NO, I said the consensus was that Romney's address was better than Obama's. I've listened to the news all day and I have yet to hear anybody try to dispute that. See, whether you lie or not is maus nicht to me.

[Hoot Gibson]

Let me go slow and post the quotes in sequence for you.


Hoot posted a link to a poll, to which I returned,



To which you replied



Then I showed you where what I posted was true,



Then you,



Then me,



The you, and I don't know what in the hell this has to do with the back and forth cell phone poll talk, but here goes,

Which polling firm was proven to be most accurate in the 2008 campaign? You should be hoping that Rasmussen is more accurate than Gallup again this year. Your cell phone theory is not supported by the facts. The biggest variable in polls is the assumptions that the firms make about turnout numbers. If one party or the other is grossly over sampled, it does not matter what numbers they punch on their phones.

[TheRealVille]

Which polling firm was proven to be most accurate in the 2008 campaign?

All I have ever said was that most don't poll people with cell phones, which leaves out a big voting block in their poll. I could care less who was more correct, I was just stating who most didn't poll, and TRT tried to make it look like I didn't know what I was talking about. Like I said, I'm not pinning my retirement hopes on a hotdog stand, so I could care less who wins. I will work, when I want to, no matter which party is running things.

[Hoot Gibson]

All I have ever said was that most don't poll people with cell phones, which leaves out a big voting block in their poll. I could care less who was more correct, I was just stating who most didn't poll, and TRT tried to make it look like I didn't know what I was talking about. Like I said, I'm not pinning my retirement hopes on a hotdog stand, so I could care less who wins. I will work, when I want to, no matter which party is running things.

So, what point are you trying to make with your cell phone argument? What difference does it make how many cell phones ring, unless it affects the accuracy of the poll results? Rasmussen had the best track record in the last presidential election and it is regularly among the leaders in predicting national election results.

I hope that the Gallup poll is, as you were claiming only a few days ago, the most accurate poll. I would love to see Romney win by a huge margin. I am looking forward to reading the collection of posts that you have been compiling the past few months. :biggrin:

[TheRealVille]

I don't know how I got 2 identical posts above. WC23, will you delete #21, please?

[Wildcatk23]

Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll’s Friday report on October 19, 2012 indicates GOP presidential challenger Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are now tied by each having 48% of American’s support for being chosen as president on November 6. Only 1% said they are choosing another candidate, and 2% say they are still undecided. In the past day, the 1% lead by Romney over Obama has disappeared

[Hoot Gibson]

Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll’s Friday report on October 19, 2012 indicates GOP presidential challenger Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are now tied by each having 48% of American’s support for being chosen as president on November 6. Only 1% said they are choosing another candidate, and 2% say they are still undecided. In the past day, the 1% lead by Romney over Obama has disappeared

A 1 % swing is statistical noise. According to Rasmussen, Romney will see a debate bounce in tomorrow's poll, which will be the first one to reflect three full days of polling after the second debate.

The thing to remember about national poll numbers is that Obama is likely still way ahead in the populous states of California, New York, and Illinois. It really does not matter how big he wins those states as for as the EC is concerned. If the popular vote is tied, Romney could very easily win the EC by a wide margin. But the momentum is still with Romney, and I do not expect that Romney will lose the popular vote. It is hard to imaging Romney losing the next debate on foreign policy. Obama cannot explain away his foreign policy blunders.

[TheRealThing]

Let me go slow and post the quotes in sequence for you.


Hoot post a link to a pol, I returned



To which you replied



Then I showed you where what I posted was true,



Then you,



Then me, which will direct back to where you quoted what I posted above, "Have to admit, I've never heard that one before. Will democrat staffers never cease to amaze me"



The you, and I don't know what in the hell this has to do with the back and forth cell phone poll talk, but here goes,

LOL, still had the other thread on my mind and we were going out for a few minutes so I was hurried. I've heard a lot of rationale go by the boards with regard to this election, the idea that cell phone users might sway the election was new to me. Maybe if you didn't accuse so many on here of being a liar you wouldn't be made to feel defensive by such an innocuous post. BTW, thanks for typing slow, you really smart guys are so hard for me to keep up with.

[TheRealThing]

A 1 % swing is statistical noise. According to Rasmussen, Romney will see a debate bounce in tomorrow's poll, which will be the first one to reflect three full days of polling after the second debate.

The thing to remember about national poll numbers is that Obama is likely still way ahead in the populous states of California, New York, and Illinois. It really does not matter how big he wins those states as for as the EC is concerned. If the popular vote is tied, Romney could very easily win the EC by a wide margin. But the momentum is still with Romney, and I do not expect that Romney will lose the popular vote. It is hard to imaging Romney losing the next debate on foreign policy. Obama cannot explain away his foreign policy blunders.

Not to mention the fact that Pennsylvania is now in play for Romney, and he has a lead in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, the Denver Post has him up in Colorado, today Iowa is a toss up, and Ohio is a toss up.