[awsumbill_68]

What's everyone's team going to look like next season, I imagine teams will start some preseason training in the near future. How's the schedules coming, any new rivalries?
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[Strikeout King]

Estill County (Boys)

Could be one of the best boys soccer teams that's ever been assembled at Estill County. Engineers return the majority of the players from a year ago that went 6-11-1 overall.


Schedule:
Aug 20 Bath County 6 PM
Aug 24 Perry Central 12 PM (Boy/Girl Double Header)
Aug 27 Wolfe County 6 PM
Sep 5 @ Berea 6:30 PM
Sep 7 Letcher Central 2 PM (Boy/Girl Double Header)
Sep 9 Madison Southern 6 PM
Sep 10 Bryan Station 6 PM
Sep 17 Garrard County 6 PM
Sep 21 @ Perry Central 12 PM (Boy/Girl Double Header)
Oct 3 @ George Rogers Clark 7 PM

Last time I talked with Coach Witt, he said that Johnson Central was scheduled but that they were discussing dates and times, He also said that he will pickup Menifee, Hazard and possibly Buckhorn. No Tournament this year.





Estill County (Girls)

Lady Engineers will have another good team this year as they return just about everyone from last year that went 11-4-1.


Schedule:

Aug 24 Perry Central 10 AM (Boy/Girl Double Header)
Aug 28 Berea 6 PM
Sep 3 Garrard County 6 PM
Sep 7 Letcher Central 12 PM (Boy/Girl Double Header)
Sep 12 Bryan Station 6 PM
Sep 21 @ Perry Central 10 AM (Boy/Girl Double Header)
Sep 24 Hazard 6:30 PM
Sep 26 Bourbon County 6 PM
Sep 28 Menifee County 12 PM
Oct 3 Fleming County 6 PM

Not sure who else Coach McMaine will have scheduled

[cougarpride08]

Letcher Central Girls according to KHSAA brings back everyone that went to state. Boys lost three but they was good ones, and there coach stepped down so do not know when they will get a new one. Camps are starting in a couple of weeks so we will see.

[sstack]

HIGHLANDS. (GIRLS)

Highlands had a rough year last season with a weak senior class. The MVP of team was a Freshmen ( only freshmen on the team as coach does not like to play freshmen on varsity and will not cut seniors). They had a very good freshmen season and good JV season. Should be a better season, but will be interesting to see what teams the coach decides to put the kids on. I think they have some good younger,faster players if he gives them a chance at varsity level. they should be better, but will still face tough competition in NKY. I would guess ND will be preseason favorite.

[hssports1234]

Marshall County returns most of the team that won region 1 last year. Have a large group of seniors and juniors that are quality players. Junior Nathan Solomon who has led the team in scoring for the past 2 years is back faster and stronger. The two main player losses were Brock Herndon and goalie Austin Droke. Should be very good in Region 1. You never know how they will compete statewide. I know there are some extremely good teams throughout the state especially in Louisville and Lexington. They play in some good tournaments during the season so it may be revealing as to how they stand.

[sstack]

Marshall County returns most of the team that won region 1 last year. Have a large group of seniors and juniors that are quality players. Junior Nathan Solomon who has led the team in scoring for the past 2 years is back faster and stronger. The two main player losses were Brock Herndon and goalie Austin Droke. Should be very good in Region 1. You never know how they will compete statewide. I know there are some extremely good teams throughout the state especially in Louisville and Lexington. They play in some good tournaments during the season so it may be revealing as to how they stand.

Don't forget Northern KY, they are always strong and I would think Notre Dame and St Henry will be rated very high in the state.

[SoccerMath]

I have been developing a statistical soccer ranking system for about 3 years. The system has proven itself successful with a prediction rate as high as 88% by the end of the season. It is based solely on game scores and home field advantage.

Here are the preseason rankings for 2013. I don't really try to do much factoring in of graduating seniors or anything like that, so this is mostly based on last years results. Still, I expect about a ~80% accuracy rating over the first part of the season. I have also made a few improvements over the winter, and expect to pass 85% as we move into the fall.

There quite likely some dumb mistakes, just like last year, with missing teams, extra teams,... So drop me a line and let me know.

Girls:
https://sites.google.com/site/mahersocce...-preseason

Boys:
https://sites.google.com/site/mahersocce...-preseason

You can also look at the sub-pages to find all the teams listed by region. I only listed the top 100 teams on the links above.

[SoccerMath]

By the way, to answer the original question. I am familiar with a few teams. I expect Scott County to be a top ten team for sure, perhaps even top 5. However, I don't expect them to advance beyond their region, because Tates Creek is loaded! Out east, I expect Russell HS to turn some heads and win the 16th. I can't remember how they are doing the tournament beyond that. But, if they play the 15th, I expect Russell in the final 8.

[cougarpride08]

Coach at Letcher Central Boys return. Hopefully boys will go to state alone with girls.

[awsumbill_68]

Math..I love what you are doing statistically, Ive seen it on another board, and I think for the most part of the season you are dead on..but in the preseason, I think you are underestimating the value of graduating seniors, and how devastating that can be to a team. Once you get that figured I think you have something, not that preseason rankings mean that much anyhow.

On a side note...Russell is a very good team...Rowan is also a very good team in that region, and are very good this season from what I have heard.

Cougar Pride...SK's engineers will be hard to handle in the 14th. Not saying Letcher cant do it mind you, but they were decent playing Berea at Madison Southern Soccerama last week.irateSho

[cougarpride08]

Going to be a battle. Even though I wish more schools would pick the sport up. We lost the Robinson kid moved with his dad, but I still think we will be ok.

[SoccerMath]

Thanks Awsumbill. You are totally right! Actually, I have no way to estimate returning seniors at the moment. I don't think it would be too hard to do, if I knew how many returning starters most of the teams had. I probably wouldn't need all of the teams, but right now, I know about 5 or 6 - that wouldn't be worth it.

You are right again, there isn't too much point in preseason rankings. You have to admit though, they are a lot of fun, and that is when hope springs eternal for all fans.

[SoccerMath]

Rankings are updated through most of Saturday's games, check them out. Don't forget to click on the "By Region" pages to see them by region, and to find all teams.

Boys:
https://sites.google.com/site/mahersocce...s/08-25-13

Girls:
https://sites.google.com/site/mahersocce...s/08-25-13

[Strikeout King]

Rankings are updated through most of Saturday's games, check them out. Don't forget to click on the "By Region" pages to see them by region, and to find all teams.

Boys:
https://sites.google.com/site/mahersocce...s/08-25-13

Girls:
https://sites.google.com/site/mahersocce...s/08-25-13

I think Estill needs to be listed on the boys. Their 2-0-1 and just beat the 80th ranked team on that list (North Laurel) at their own place and probably have the best team that's ever came through this school

[SoccerMath]

Well after that comment, I had to check out Estill Co. Indeed, it was a dominating performance over #80 North Laurel. So, I reran the numbers thru yesterday's game just to see how far they moved up. Estill Co. improved their scaled rating by almost 2 full points in that single game which is a lot. It vaulted them into the top spot in Region 14, but they still haven't quite cracked the top 100, statewide. Let your heart not be troubled though, the preseason rankings are based pretty much on historical data, so it can take a couple weeks for drastically improved teams (and teams that have gotten worse) to find their correct place in the ranks.

[Strikeout King]

Awsumbill, Estill updated their stats for the three games they played this season, Andrew Witt has 6 goals putting him 2nd in the state in scoring. KHSAA hasn't updated the main stats on the KHSAA Soccer Page yet tho.

[awsumbill_68]

I saw Estill play at soccerama..he looked good. His little brother looked awful good too.:Cheerlead