2015 KY Baseball State Rankings

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-14-2015, 02:38 PM

LCHSbulldogsalum · 02-14-2015, 04:08 PM

How were these rankings decided? I don't have any real problems with the 15th region, but some of the teams in the 16th region are a bit out of order. How is East Carter ahead of West Carter? East was eliminated Morgan County in district last year, and West was much younger and had a good year last year. And Greenup is too high, in my opinion. But they always have a great program.

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-14-2015, 05:12 PM

LCHSbulldogsalum Wrote:How were these rankings decided?

From their website.

https://www.truerank.org/our-team.html

HOW IT WORKS

The algorithm is a purely black and white approach, based on whether a team is home or away and the expected vs. actual outcome, with a few various factors that are specific to favorite/underdog and returning players (in between seasons). It does not take into consideration injuries, magnitude of the situation (overtime/tournament games), weather, or any opponents from outside of the state.

In theory, given enough data points (game results), you can calculate how well a team performed outside of the norm. The algorithm creates a base rating and then as teams constantly switch back and forth between playing better and worse, their ratings will rise and fall accordingly. When this theory is applied to a large bank of data, teams that are traditionally strong will rise to the top of the state list.

When the algorithm is first applied to a sport, all teams are given an arbitrary 0.0 rating. Over time, given the results of games over several years, each team settles into a base rating. The system is set up to be sensitive enough that a very good (or bad) week can drastically improve (or decline) a teamâs rating. In simpler terms, winning by a large margin on the road as an underdog goes much further to increase a rating than getting blown out at home as the favorite.

baseball1974 · 02-15-2015, 05:08 AM

These numbers do not seem to have anything to do with players returning or anything of that nature. It seems to be based solely on the previous year's accomplishments. A lot of preseason rankings do that very same thing, especially the ones not associated with the state or state coaching associations they are ranking. Without that involvement, all they have to go on is what that team did in the previous season. There are a lot more variables to consider. For example, I know teams that will jump in rankings just from getting a new coach. I wouldn't look too much at this list.

I will say though there are several teams with rankings that I have no clue how they come up with? It isn't from what they did last year and has nothing to do with their algorithm. Who knows?

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-15-2015, 08:14 PM

baseball1974 Wrote:These numbers do not seem to have anything to do with players returning or anything of that nature. It seems to be based solely on the previous year's accomplishments. A lot of preseason rankings do that very same thing, especially the ones not associated with the state or state coaching associations they are ranking. Without that involvement, all they have to go on is what that team did in the previous season. There are a lot more variables to consider. For example, I know teams that will jump in rankings just from getting a new coach. I wouldn't look too much at this list.

I will say though there are several teams with rankings that I have no clue how they come up with? It isn't from what they did last year and has nothing to do with their algorithm. Who knows?

It is a beginning point for the season. I like it.

Give us some examples of those several teams that you mentioned.

baseball1974 · 02-15-2015, 08:42 PM

Fly By Night Wrote:It is a beginning point for the season. I like it.

Give us some examples of those several teams that you mentioned.

1. Lafayette (season ended first round of district to a PLD team that was barely over .500)
2. Bryan Station (8 games under .500 and no regional tournament appearance)
3. Collins (Way too High)
4. Simon Kenton (Both Collins and SK had same amount of seniors and SK ended Collins' season, yet SK is 18 spots below Collins)
5. Lexington Christian (Way too High)
6. Ryle (7 games under .500 and no region tournament appearance)
7. Cooper (worst #21 team I've ever seen. Only played 23 games, was 12-11 and got beat first round of district)

I don't have time right now to finish but there are SEVERAL more.

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-16-2015, 01:33 AM

baseball1974 Wrote:1. Lafayette (season ended first round of district to a PLD team that was barely over .500)
2. Bryan Station (8 games under .500 and no regional tournament appearance)
3. Collins (Way too High)
4. Simon Kenton (Both Collins and SK had same amount of seniors and SK ended Collins' season, yet SK is 18 spots below Collins)
5. Lexington Christian (Way too High)
6. Ryle (7 games under .500 and no region tournament appearance)
7. Cooper (worst #21 team I've ever seen. Only played 23 games, was 12-11 and got beat first round of district)

I don't have time right now to finish but there are SEVERAL more.

This ranking seems to be top heavy with Region 11 (Lexington area) and Region 8 and 9 (mostly NKY) schools.

Interesting analysis.

baseball1974 · 02-16-2015, 03:40 AM

Fly By Night Wrote:This ranking seems to be top heavy with Region 11 (Lexington area) and Region 8 and 9 (mostly NKY) schools.

Interesting analysis.

What I listed were seven schools that have no business being ranked as high as they are. I wasn't ranking them. They were just the first seven I came to that had no business being where they are.

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-16-2015, 07:13 AM

baseball1974 Wrote:What I listed were seven schools that have no business being ranked as high as they are. I wasn't ranking them. They were just the first seven I came to that had no business being where they are.

I was referring to the original ranking, not your list.

I was commenting on your analysis.

baseball1974 · 02-16-2015, 08:23 AM

Fly By Night Wrote:I was referring to the original ranking, not your list.

I was commenting on your analysis.

Got it.....

fairgame · 02-16-2015, 11:45 PM

#38, #41, and #60 all made strong showings in the state tournament (South in the final four) and lost basically nobody, but are ranked this low? #50 North Laurel could easily upset South for a trip back to state. 2 assumptions and 1 certainty. Assumption #1 is that whoever made this list is the biggest Central/Northern KY homer ever. Assumption #2. Whoever made this list has not watched any of these teams and knows absolutely nothing about KY baseball. The certainty is that, this list is garbage, and the worst preseason rankings I've ever saw.

baseball1974 · 02-17-2015, 03:58 AM

It is probably the worst ranking I've seen in a really long time. South Laurel should be a top 10 team and north at least a top 20. South is much better than Johnson Central this year. They also have Powell over hazard, but two of the worst on the list is Lafayette and Cooper. North Laurel and Cooper could easily switch places and even then I think that's way too high of a ranking for Cooper. They played half of a season, was barely .500 doing that and lost first round of district. Not too mention they lost 10 seniors. There is no algorithm being used. If there is, whomever is tallying up the scores needs to redo their math.

fairgame · 02-17-2015, 05:20 AM

North, South, and Hazard lost absolutely no one. South even added a stud to a starting lineup full of seniors, and they are ranked 41st? Southwestern just lost a couple, but none that will hurt, and they should've beat SK last year but got screwed on a terrible call on a non catch in right field.

baseball1974 · 02-17-2015, 06:35 AM

Southwestern also led the region in runs scored as well. They are definitely a top 15 team. They are not better than South Laurel though, but Danville isn't better than North Laurel either so its all screwed. I'm assuming in their "algorithm" there was more points added to teams from certain areas. That's the only way it could work.

baller55 · 02-17-2015, 03:13 PM

Top 10 looks pretty good!!

anotherfootballnut · 02-17-2015, 05:12 PM

Ashland will be terrible just like they are in basketball , 34 is about 150 spots to high for them

fairgame · 02-18-2015, 12:25 AM

baller55 Wrote:Top 10 looks pretty good!!

How many of the top 10 made the state tournament last year?

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-18-2015, 04:22 AM

fairgame Wrote:How many of the top 10 made the state tournament last year?

3 of the top 10 teams in the 2015 poll made the state tournament last year. (5 of the teams are from the 11th region where Tates Creek is located. Conner and Highlands are in the 9th region together.)

State Tournament participants last year and (position in poll in 2015)

Simon Kenton (22)
Southwestern (38)
Hazard (60)
McCracken County (66)
South Warren (45)
Daviess County (87)
South Laurel (41)
Scott (24)
North Bullitt (25)
Elizabethtown (33)
Boyd County (40)
Conner (5)
Tates Creek (1)
Johnson Central (17)
St. Xavier (7)
Union County (75)

Fanman · 02-18-2015, 07:05 PM

This poll has no merit whatsoever, its obviously based ONLY on last year's results. I can only speak for the 16th region, but it is all jacked up. Ashland graduated 11 seniors, yet ahead of Boyd who won the Region and returns nearly everyone. West is WAY too low, and no chance that Raceland is lower than Russell.

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-18-2015, 10:11 PM

Fanman Wrote:This poll has no merit whatsoever, its obviously based ONLY on last year's results. I can only speak for the 16th region, but it is all jacked up. Ashland graduated 11 seniors, yet ahead of Boyd who won the Region and returns nearly everyone. West is WAY too low, and no chance that Raceland is lower than Russell.

I agree with you that Boyd County should be much higher. West Carter has a great nucleus of young players as does Greenup County.

I have witnessed the players that both Raceland and Russell have.

Russell defeated Raceland twice in 2014 and once by 10-run rule.

Why should Raceland be ahead of Russell in your opinion?

Fanman · 02-19-2015, 04:20 PM

You may be right, but I feel Raceland was pretty young last year, and have two legitimate arms in junior Morris, and sophomore Davidson. Russell, while young as well last year, lost their best pitcher in Jones, and not sure what kind of pitching they will have. They at least should be closer to the same rank in my opinion.

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-19-2015, 05:15 PM

Fanman Wrote:You may be right, but I feel Raceland was pretty young last year, and have two legitimate arms in junior Morris, and sophomore Davidson. Russell, while young as well last year, lost their best pitcher in Jones, and not sure what kind of pitching they will have. They at least should be closer to the same rank in my opinion.

Russell has the better freshmen than Raceland.

I do not know about the other grades.

Bean Counter · 02-21-2015, 11:19 PM

Let's see....7 Region 11 teams and 6 Region 9 teams in the top 20. Totally hilarious and unsubstantiated poll. Really funny when you look at where most of these teams were last year when the state tourney started. I guess unless you're a school based in a metropolitan area (Lexington or Louisville), you shouldn't even bother fielding a team. Someone should tell Hazard, South Laurel and Southwestern not to bother.

**Bob Seger** · 02-21-2015, 11:46 PM

Let's see....7 Region 11 teams and 6 Region 9 teams in the top 20. Totally hilarious and unsubstantiated poll. Really funny when you look at where most of these teams were last year when the state tourney started. I guess unless you're a school based in a metropolitan area (Lexington or Louisville), you shouldn't even bother fielding a team. Someone should tell Hazard, South Laurel and Southwestern not to bother.

Are you not remembering that it was Johnson Central that knocked off the #1 team in the state (Tates Creek) and then had the #3 team in the state (St. X) on the ropes in the second round of the state tournament.

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-22-2015, 02:13 AM

Bean Counter Wrote:Let's see....7 Region 11 teams and 6 Region 9 teams in the top 20. Totally hilarious and unsubstantiated poll. Really funny when you look at where most of these teams were last year when the state tourney started. I guess unless you're a school based in a metropolitan area (Lexington or Louisville), you shouldn't even bother fielding a team. Someone should tell Hazard, South Laurel and Southwestern not to bother.

Bob Seger Wrote:Are you not remembering that it was Johnson Central that knocked off the #1 team in the state (Tates Creek) and then had the #3 team in the state (St. X) on the ropes in the second round of the state tournament.

I listed the teams' 2014 final record and (2015 preseason ranking)

(1) Tates Creek 33-7-1 - won the 11th region. Lost to (17) Johnson Central in first round of state tournament

(2) Bourbon County 33-4 - lost in 10th region final to (24) Scott.

(3) Collins 28-4 - lost in 8th region semifinal to (22) Simon Kenton.

(4) Madison Central 29-9 - lost in 11th region final to (1) Tates Creek.

(5) Conner 26-10 - won the 9th region. Lost to (25) North Bullitt in quarterfinal of state tourney.

(6) Lexington Catholic 23-14 - lost in 11th region quarterfinal to (4) Madison Central

(7) St. Xavier 30-10 - won the state championship

(8) Lafayette 22-12 - lost in 43rd district of 11th region to (18) Dunbar.

(9) Highlands 22-18 - lost in 9th region final to (5) Conner.

(10) Scott County 26-10 - lost in 11th region semifinal to (4) Madison Central.

(11) Lexington Christian 20-15 - lost in 43rd district of 11th region to (6) Lexington Catholic.

(12) Trinity 18-16 - lost in 7th region final to (7) St. Xavier.

(13) Dixie Heights 29-4 - lost in 9th region semifinal to (9) Highlands.

(14) Male 22-14 - lost in 7th region semifinal to (12) Trinity.

(15) Beechwood 25-12 - lost in 9th region quarterfinal to (9) Highlands.

(16) Harrison County 25-12 - lost in 11th region semifinal to (24) Scott.

(17) Johnson Central 31-11 - won the 15th region. Lost to (7) St. Xavier in quarterfinal of state tourney.

(18) Dunbar 19-15 - lost in 43rd district of 11th region to (1) Tates Creek.

(19) Covington Catholic 33-7 - lost in 9th region semifinal to (5) Conner.

(20) Boone County 18-6 - lost in 9th region quarterfinal to (13) Dixie Heights.

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-22-2015, 02:21 AM

Interesting that each of those teams that you mentioned lost to Simon Kenton in the 2014 state tourney.

(38) Southwestern 27-13 - won the 12th region. Lost to (22) Simon Kenton in first round of state tourney.

(41) South Laurel 29-9 - won the 13th region. Lost to (22) Simon Kenton in semifinal of state tourney.

(60) Hazard 27-14 - won the 14th region. Lost to (22) Simon Kenton in quarterfinal of state tourney.

TPX · 02-22-2015, 07:33 AM

Bob Seger Wrote:Let's see....7 Region 11 teams and 6 Region 9 teams in the top 20. Totally hilarious and unsubstantiated poll. Really funny when you look at where most of these teams were last year when the state tourney started. I guess unless you're a school based in a metropolitan area (Lexington or Louisville), you shouldn't even bother fielding a team. Someone should tell Hazard, South Laurel and Southwestern not to bother.

Are you not remembering that it was Johnson Central that knocked off the #1 team in the state (Tates Creek) and then had the #3 team in the state (St. X) on the ropes in the second round of the state tournament.

This not a knock on any of those teams, but none of them would have made it out of the 6th, 7th, or 11th region. It is a different level for teams in those regions to make it to the state tournament. There are several other regions that it would have been an uphill battle for them to make it.

**Bob Seger** · 02-22-2015, 09:30 AM

TPX Wrote:This not a knock on any of those teams, but none of them would have made it out of the 6th, 7th, or 11th region. It is a different level for teams in those regions to make it to the state tournament. There are several other regions that it would have been an uphill battle for them to make it.

Oh I see....I'll bet you are one of EXPERTS that said none of them could have won at the state tournament too...lol

It's a good thing we have your type out there that knows all... Confused

nicker:

~~Fly By Night~~ · 02-22-2015, 01:52 PM

Bob Seger Wrote:Oh I see....I'll bet you are one of EXPERTS that said none of them could have won at the state tournament too...lol

It's a good thing we have your type out there that knows all...nicker:

Do you mean win 1 game at the state tournament or win the whole thing?

rawlingsfan · 02-22-2015, 02:45 PM

Postseason in Kentucky is single elimination with only one state champion. Winning four games in 5 or 6 days, depending on your draw will favor a school with 1,500 or more students, and private schools.