[16BBall Fan]

This is a shocker. lol

Here is what the KHSAA released:

[b]FOOTBALL RPI CLARIFICATION AND CLEAN-UP[/b]


At 1 p.m. ET today, the revised RPI calculations were posted on the KHSAA website and will continue to be updated hourly. There have been no changes in the calculations for the sports of soccer, volleyball, field hockey, basketball, baseball or softball.



However, a discovery was made this week of a flaw in the implementation of the double play-down exemption for football. Thankfully, with hundreds of games of live data, more tests on the data could be performed. Thanks to the watchful eye of a couple of our larger schools, this flaw was easy to trace and revise.



The beauty of a very public system is that it is both transparent and replicable. One of our assistant coaches who happens to teach match at Trinity High School, asked an innocent enough question about how a team in the largest class could have an OWP greater than 1.0. While mathematically possible in an extremely unusual situation, it certainly shouldn’t have applied to so many teams in the largest class. We are grateful that simple curiosity by Coach Michael Fox and his report to the office was able to be verified and the appropriate revisions made long before any impact on final standings would have been applied.



In review, it was determined that the class factor had been erroneously applied to the OWP and OOWP calculations when the change to the 2 play-down exemption was implemented. This error has been fixed and the revised calculations appropriately reflect both the 2 play-down exemption and the appropriate use of the class factor. Obviously, due to the potentially mathematically circular nature of applying that factor down the line, it has never been a part of the calculations and was inadvertently made for all schools regardless of class, illustrating the problem.



If you are curious about the calculations, remember there are two helpful links.

• First, is the main page for the RPI athttps://ly.khsaa.org/da5a.
  
  
• Secondly, you can go to the RPI page for the current season, athttps://ly.khsaa.org/yymgand click on any school, and basically “drill down” to any calculation.
  
  
• That’s the very basics of transparency.
  

We are very appreciative of Coach Fox and each of our member school coaches and assistants who have built “replicators” for the RPI to help in your planning and analysis and apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused.

[Orange Blaze]

RPI in 1A is an an absolute joke. Raceland shouldn’t be 7th and seems to be punished for playing a tough schedule. Outside of Pikeville all of the teams ahead of Raceland would have lost the same games as Raceland if they played the same schedule and none of them would have beaten Pikeville. If Raceland would have played their schedules the Rams would be undefeated. No one can convince me that the system is working the way it should this year based on where everyone is currently sitting and the only way I’ll buy in is if Pikeville and Raceland are 1 & 2 by the end of the season and that seems unlikely.

[jetpilot]

^^^Zero chance of P & R 1 and 2...

[Orange Blaze]

^^^Zero chance of P & R 1 and 2...

I agree and I hate it that the real title game will be played in the 3rd or 4th round because of that broken system.

[OutlawJoseyWales]

Yep….teams that play a difficult schedule typically take a hit in the RPI if they drop a few. I remember Belfry’s state championship team in 2019 …..they came into the playoffs at number #15 in the RPI. Complete joke. Not a fan. It will be virtually impossible for Pikeville and Raceland to end up 1 & 2.

[Orange Blaze]

Yep….teams that play a difficult schedule typically take a hit in the RPI if they drop a few.  I remember Belfry’s  state championship team in 2019 …..they came into the playoffs at number #15 in the RPI.  Complete joke.  Not a fan.  It will be virtually impossible for Pikeville and Raceland to end up 1 & 2.

Raceland still has a probable loss at the end of the season against LCA which will cause a further drop.

[ArmChairHC]

What’s killing me is seeing a legit chance of Raceland and Pikeville seeing each other as early as the second round.

[16BBall Fan]

Hey guys if you think the above comments are bad enough in 6A with the schedule that Frederick Douglass has played they are currently ranked #14 in RPI with for example ranked ahead of them are Henderson Co. at 2-5, Ryle at 3-4 and Tates Creek at 4-3 who Douglass has defeated 43-0 earlier this year.

[Old School Hound]

I am absolutely in favor of an algorithmic ranking system but the RPI isn't it!!!! Get rid of it in favor of Calpreps.

[KnoxvillesFinest]

The RPI simply isn’t fool proof. It’s why the BCS didn’t only rely on computer models. There has to be a human element for it to work, but at the high school level you are not going to get that without people claiming foul and or people actually being biased.

AKA, the old system worked better. All they had to do was rotate the regions so every single year the same two teams aren’t playing in the second or third round if they’re the two best teams and just so happen to be in the same neighboring regions.

Long story short, there is no fool proof system. Some times the best two teams are going to meet before the title game. At the very least, sometimes the RPI gets it right but most of the time it doesn’t.

[Old School Hound]

If you think RPI is bad(and it most certainly is), there was a system back in the 50's and '60's call the Dickinson System that was even worse. MUCH WORSE!!! Corbin finished undefeated and untied in 1960 , beating Louisville power, Manual, to close out their undefeated system. Under Dickinson, the undefeated and highly regarded Hounds were left out of the playoffs entirely.

[RAMDAD50]

I am absolutely in favor of an algorithmic ranking system but the RPI isn't it!!!!  Get rid of it in favor of Calpreps.

That’s not a improvement

---

What’s killing me is seeing a legit chance of Raceland and Pikeville seeing each other as early as the second round.

I don’t think that’s possible….is it? I thought we played cross district until the third round

[jetpilot]

I am absolutely in favor of an algorithmic ranking system but the RPI isn't it!!!!  Get rid of it in favor of Calpreps.

That’s not a improvement

---

What’s killing me is seeing a legit chance of Raceland and Pikeville seeing each other as early as the second round.

I don’t think that’s possible….is it? I thought we played cross district until the third round

I was thinking the same.

[RAM-A-DEVIL]

The RPI simply isn’t fool proof. It’s why the BCS didn’t only rely on computer models. There has to be a human element for it to work, but at the high school level you are not going to get that without people claiming foul and or people actually being biased.

AKA, the old system worked better. All they had to do was rotate the regions so every single year the same two teams aren’t playing in the second or third round if they’re the two best teams and just so happen to be in the same neighboring regions.

Long story short, there is no fool proof system. Some times the best two teams are going to meet before the title game.  At the very least, sometimes the RPI gets it right but most of the time it doesn’t.

It is fool proof for the teams that know how to manipulate it by playing larger crap teams. Lots of paper tigers running around out there

[jetpilot]

The RPI simply isn’t fool proof. It’s why the BCS didn’t only rely on computer models. There has to be a human element for it to work, but at the high school level you are not going to get that without people claiming foul and or people actually being biased.

AKA, the old system worked better. All they had to do was rotate the regions so every single year the same two teams aren’t playing in the second or third round if they’re the two best teams and just so happen to be in the same neighboring regions.

Long story short, there is no fool proof system. Some times the best two teams are going to meet before the title game.  At the very least, sometimes the RPI gets it right but most of the time it doesn’t.

It is fool proof for the teams that know how to manipulate it by playing larger crap teams. Lots of paper tigers running around out there

They can run but they can’t hide

[Old School Hound]

I am absolutely in favor of an algorithmic ranking system but the RPI isn't it!!!!  Get rid of it in favor of Calpreps.

That’s not a improvement

---

What’s killing me is seeing a legit chance of Raceland and Pikeville seeing each other as early as the second round.

I don’t think that’s possible….is it? I thought we played cross district until the third round

Calpreps most certainly is an improvement over RPI. MAJOR improvement!!! As the season ages, especially,  Calpreps becomes a very, very good measure of which teams are best.

[Rip/Spin]

I am absolutely in favor of an algorithmic ranking system but the RPI isn't it!!!!  Get rid of it in favor of Calpreps.

That’s not a improvement

---

What’s killing me is seeing a legit chance of Raceland and Pikeville seeing each other as early as the second round.

I don’t think that’s possible….is it? I thought we played cross district until the third round

That's correct. Cross district in first two rounds and then the third round will go to RPI seeded by top 4 in East and top 4 in the West.

[Glory_Days]

What’s killing me is seeing a legit chance of Raceland and Pikeville seeing each other as early as the second round.

 

LOL, that would be a real screwing considering their districts don't cross-bracket.

D5 vs. D6
D7 vs. D8

Ok, I'm no expert and there are many variables in play. This is my best look into the probablility of Raceland & Pikeville meeting before the finals. I understand that the RPIs are locked at the end of the season but seeds can and do change based on teams being eliminated.

Projected final 4 from the East to meet in the regional finals (AKA, round 3 - seeds determined by RPI).

No particular order:
*Sayre / Paris winner
*Raceland
*Survivor of this mess. Middlesboro / Williamsburg winner faces Paintsville in round 2
*Pikeville


There are many games to play out for RPI, but I still think Pikeville squeaks out the 1 seed (for the 4 East teams). I believe the only way Raceland falls to the 4 seed is if they lose to Paris and LCA.

Therefore, they avoid each other in the 3rd round.



On to the semifinals. There are several scenarios that will keep Pikeville and Raceland from meeting. In fact, I think it will take something unexpected for them to face each other.

First, neither Pikeville or Raceland will likely be the 1 seed. The winner of KCD & Campbellsville regular season game will project out as 1 seed. (barring upsets by either Bethlehem or Lou Holy Cross this week). They should stay 1 & 2 on the West side and likely advance to the Semifinals (**NCC could knock off one of them in the regionals).

I believe Pikeville has a solid projection for the 2 seed in the final four. So, Raceland needs to be the 4 seed for those folks to get their wish. This looks very possible with the loser of KCD & Campbellsville ending up as the 3 seed in the final four.

**If NCC pulls off an upset in the regional finals it will be against the 1 seed, the surviving teams move up a slot with NCC the 4 seed. This still wouldn't create a Pikeville / Raceland matchup.

Note:
Raceland may benefit from a loss to LCA to keep that "gap" in the RPI that prevents them from pairing up with Pikeville. In other words, an RPI boost might jump them into the projected 3 seed causing a 2 vs. 3 matchup with Pikeville.

Summary, I think we see a Pikeville / Raceland game at Kroger. 
The Raceland fans can be happy while justifiably upset that by all rationality they were the #1 team in the season in all of 1A, but will probably play road games in the regionals and semifinals. 

Now my last point to ponder. 
In the old system the odd and even numbers for districts and regions determined the home field when 2 teams had the same seed (eg: 1 vs. 1). Odds in odd years, evens in even years. In 2023, most likely Raceland (D6) is on the road (at D5) in the regional finals and definitely at home against Pikeville in the semifinals (region 4 at region 3). So like it or not the RPI might have given you what you want, at least this way there is a chance for a title game matchup.

---

One clarification... the above assumes chalk with Sayre (D5) and Raceland (D6)

In the old system if Paris (D6 #2) were to defeat Sayre (D5 #1) in round 2, Raceland would be at home due to seeding (D6 #1).
In the RPI version of this same scenario, it's possible that Raceland could play at Paris.

[jetpilot]

Great analysis G_D

One note - for all the faults of RPI, the two best teams didn't meet in the championship in many cases under the old system also...

[Orange Blaze]

Great analysis G_D

One note - for all the faults of RPI, the two best teams didn't meet in the championship in many cases under the old system also...

My issue with how it’s looking like it will play out this year is it is looking like Raceland will likely be on the road a lot in the playoffs because we were beat by good teams and teams that aren’t as good will be getting home field because they played a cupcake schedule.

[jetpilot]

Great analysis G_D

One note - for all the faults of RPI, the two best teams didn't meet in the championship in many cases under the old system also...

My issue with how it’s looking like it will play out this year is it is looking like Raceland will likely be on the road a lot in the playoffs because we were beat by good teams and teams that aren’t as good will be getting home field because they played a cupcake schedule.

Agree totally

[Statmaster]

Learn from this. Raceland should schedule accordingly next season.

[EKUAlum05]

I am absolutely in favor of an algorithmic ranking system but the RPI isn't it!!!!  Get rid of it in favor of Calpreps.

That’s not a improvement

---

What’s killing me is seeing a legit chance of Raceland and Pikeville seeing each other as early as the second round.

I don’t think that’s possible….is it? I thought we played cross district until the third round

Calpreps most certainly is an improvement over RPI. MAJOR improvement!!! As the season ages, especially,  Calpreps becomes a very, very good measure of which teams are best.

Calpreps needs to be used to actually assign the correct value to out of state wins and losses... not sure I would go as far as to say it replaces the RPI. I am also not saying the RPi is something great... but you can't have a CPU you have no oversight over as the sole source for your ratings.

It does baffle me though why the KHSAA cannot use Calpreps to properly rate out of state results and apply the necessary secondary calculations. There is zero reason why a win over a 1A WV team should have more value than a loss to Archbishop Hoban OH who is nationally ranked and a big school. In the same token, there is no reason that Trinity beating Bryan Station or Ballard should be weighed as a more impressive win than Trinity beating Cincy St. Xavier or Carmel, IN.

[KnoxvillesFinest]

There’s going to come a time when a team will benefit more by losing a game late in the season to stay away from a team they don’t want to play early in the playoffs.
I don’t think it’ll happen because nobody will want to come across as that but it’s possible.

[Orange Blaze]

Learn from this. Raceland should schedule accordingly next season.

I get what you are saying but the system is still showing it’s flaws.  In the past Raceland has been criticized for playing a soft schedule and now that they’ve played a strong schedule RPI punishes them.  

Raceland will likely finish the regular season with a 7-3 record with all of those losses coming at the hands of top 5 RPI teams in 2A, 4A, and 5A while running through all of the 1A teams they’ve played so far and has outscored 1A competition 158-21.  

While Pikeville is without a doubt one of the top 2 teams in 1A they haven’t played a game in nearly a month and still moved ahead in RPI.  In the end it will all work itself out on the field but it’s a shame that going undefeated against weak competition outweighs losing a few games against quality teams.

[Runnin' Clock]

I like Calpreps, Massey, etc but the magic formulas are annoying when you can't boil down the numbers for yourself.

RPI isn't perfect. It's a rating not a ranking.

I think by the time the 3rd round gets here, most teams will be eliminated and RPI does a decent job.

As far as out of state games go... I may be in the minority but there's no way to arbitrarily assign a metric to OOS teams. Just remove them from the calculation completely

As far as the Class modifiers go... This is bologna. Teams know which 1A teams to avoid and which 6A teams to schedule for homecoming. No brownie points for scheduling a cupcake. Frankfort (1A) lost at Southern (6A) 6-2. I know what Pikeville or Raceland or KCD could do to a number of teams #RunninClock

Manual played at CAL and hosted South Warren. They shouldn't be penalized for losing to a top team in a lower division. And, CAL scheduled them knowing they could win and prepared accordingly to do just that.

I think the best thing to do would be some sort of relegation when realignment comes based on a combination of enrollment and previous 6-10 year winning percentage. I'm not exactly sure how Indiana does this but I know Cathedral is relatively small yet compete at the highest classification. Some schools are going to be good for a few years and then that kid graduates or few kids move on and said school is back to being a bottom-feeder. Some schools recruit HEAVY and should be winning and should be playing top competition. Can you imagine a top class with the top teams in each of the current classes. Playoffs would be amazing football each week.

[jetpilot]

The RPI simply isn’t fool proof. It’s why the BCS didn’t only rely on computer models. There has to be a human element for it to work, but at the high school level you are not going to get that without people claiming foul and or people actually being biased.

AKA, the old system worked better. All they had to do was rotate the regions so every single year the same two teams aren’t playing in the second or third round if they’re the two best teams and just so happen to be in the same neighboring regions.

Long story short, there is no fool proof system. Some times the best two teams are going to meet before the title game.  At the very least, sometimes the RPI gets it right but most of the time it doesn’t.

It is fool proof for the teams that know how to manipulate it by playing larger crap teams. Lots of paper tigers running around out there

They can run but they can’t hide

[Hatz]

If you think RPI is bad(and it most certainly is), there was a system back in the 50's and '60's call the Dickinson System that was even worse. MUCH WORSE!!!  Corbin finished undefeated and untied in 1960  , beating Louisville power, Manual, to close out their undefeated system. Under Dickinson, the undefeated and highly regarded Hounds were left out of the playoffs entirely.

Dickinson was based on points that were a point given for each win and then a point for the wins by the team you beat.  If memory serves.  It hurt many good teams along the way.

[nemo]

If you think RPI is bad(and it most certainly is), there was a system back in the 50's and '60's call the Dickinson System that was even worse. MUCH WORSE!!!  Corbin finished undefeated and untied in 1960  , beating Louisville power, Manual, to close out their undefeated system. Under Dickinson, the undefeated and highly regarded Hounds were left out of the playoffs entirely.

Dickinson was based on points that were a point given for each win and then a point for the wins by the team you beat.  If memory serves.  It hurt many good teams along the way.

Among fan bases of teams that didn't make the playoffs, there was often a muttered, "We got (*abbreviated*d) by the system.

Side note: In the old three class days District and Subdistrict alignments were ridiculous.

[Buffs19]

Based on how everyone in Class A's OOWP ends up, there's a real possibility for the following rankings at the end of the season:

1. KCD
2. Campbellsville
3. Paris
4. Pikeville
5. Raceland

That's with Campbellsville beating KCD and Raceland beating Paris. If those rankings end up being true, and Paris, Pikeville, and Raceland all advance to Round 3, then Pikeville would host Raceland in Round 3. Paris would more than likely host the winner of District 8. Of course, Sayre could have something to say about that whole situation, but there is a real possibility that Pikeville and Raceland meet earlier than expected.