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Corbin/Boyle : Probability Speaking...
#31
Boyle 75% chance of winning, Corbin 25%
#32
(11-17-2023, 09:49 AM)Rebel55 Wrote:
(11-17-2023, 08:10 AM)know1 Wrote: My probability estimate/guess is Boyle 75% chance of winning.

I always thought those computer models added 3 points for home field. I didn't think it was 7, but I could be wrong.


What ever the advantage is I'll take it.  If these two are equal 50/50 home field pushes the dial over to Boyle.  The Rebels are very fortunate to get this game at their place.  IMO the RPI gods have done Boyle a favor.

Yeah, that's kinda how I see it. I don't know how big a factor home field is but whichever team got it was gonna be a receiver of some good fortune. I think the teams are pretty close , so any advantage helps. I'm sure the Boyle fans would still be confident in their team, even if this game were at Campbell Field. However, I think there would be a bit more trepidation at having to travel to Corbin and play at Campbell Field.

  I believe this game has a chance of being really close but I would feel better about saying that if the venue was at Corbin instead of Boyle. Honesty, no outcome would really shock me. I could see Boyle winning in a blowout. I could see Corbin winning convincingly. I could see either team winning by a field goal , or less. Both teams are really good. I think coaching and home field gives Boyle about a 2 TD edge before play even starts.

Can Corbin be 2 TDs better on this particular night? Yes, but I think they will have to force a couple of turnovers and turn those mistakes into scores. Also, sometime in this game, gunslinger Haddix will go for it on fourth down. Corbin needs to stop them on the times that Haddix gambles. His gambling can win him games or lose him games, and Corbin needs to make his gambles costly for Boyle. I give the Hounds about a 1 in 3 chance of leaving Danville with a win.
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#33
Clocks gonna be ticking when 99 averages about 5 yards a carry along with HR hitter Bailey behind him, then you have Elam to run it or throw it 50 yards. TOP goes to the hounds. I’m gonna take the hounds tonight.
#34
(11-17-2023, 02:10 PM)Diablo Wrote: Clocks gonna be ticking when 99 averages about 5 yards a carry along with HR hitter Bailey behind him, then you have Elam to run it or throw it 50 yards.  TOP goes to the hounds.  I’m gonna take the hounds tonight.


You think Corbin is gonna try to control the clock and limit Boyle's possessions?  It's a strategy that would have merit if they had a dynamic running game. If Corbin runs the ball well on Boyle, it will certainly be an interesting evening. We'll see...
#35
WHERE CAN YOU WATCH THIS GAME?
#36
(11-17-2023, 03:29 PM)Onward Leslie! Wrote: WHERE CAN YOU WATCH THIS GAME?

https://www.team1sports.com/highschool/k...oylecounty
#37
OSHOG (Old School's House of Gambit) has the Hounds going off as a 2:1 dog in this one.

Joe's Crab Shack has the Hounds listed as a 3:1 dog.

Btw, JCS is not a seafood joint. It's backwoods joint down in Woodbine where old dudes go to imbibe, play cards, and play with gals with green ink tattoos and hairy armpits.
#38
(11-16-2023, 06:09 PM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(11-16-2023, 05:22 PM)TrojanMan69 Wrote: 100% chance that Coach Haddix continues to own Tommy Greer.

You don't understand mathematics.  This is not a certain outcome. You might want to say "highly likely" but not 100%. There is , at least, some degree of uncertainty about this outcome.

(11-16-2023, 05:36 PM)KnoxvillesFinest Wrote: Thanks for starting a new thread on this. Was worried we wouldn’t get a new one this week.


You might get ten more before 7:30 tomorrow night. Thanks for continuing to show evidence of being KNOXVILLES WORST.  UT sucked against Missouri !!!   Big Grin Big Grin Big Grin

How many Corbin/Boyle threads can you click and comment on  to disparage the OP or his team?

I don’t root for losers like Tennessee. It’s the same reason I’m not a Corbin fan.

Offer still stands by the way OSH

I’ll give you 7 points and Corbin.

Loser has to delete their profile and never come back to BGR
Show the people of Corbin you believe in them more than their administration like you’ve been saying.
#39
I think at Boyle it's: Boyle    75%
                            Corbin   25%

I think neutral field: Boyle    65%
                             Corbin  35%

I think at Corbin: Boyle    55%
                         Corbin   45%
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#40
(11-17-2023, 05:22 PM)KnoxvillesFinest Wrote:
(11-16-2023, 06:09 PM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(11-16-2023, 05:22 PM)TrojanMan69 Wrote: 100% chance that Coach Haddix continues to own Tommy Greer.

You don't understand mathematics.  This is not a certain outcome. You might want to say "highly likely" but not 100%. There is , at least, some degree of uncertainty about this outcome.

(11-16-2023, 05:36 PM)KnoxvillesFinest Wrote: Thanks for starting a new thread on this. Was worried we wouldn’t get a new one this week.


You might get ten more before 7:30 tomorrow night. Thanks for continuing to show evidence of being KNOXVILLES WORST.  UT sucked against Missouri !!!   Big Grin Big Grin Big Grin

How many Corbin/Boyle threads can you click and comment on  to disparage the OP or his team?

I don’t root for losers like Tennessee. It’s the same reason I’m not a Corbin fan.

Offer still stands by the way OSH

I’ll give you 7 points and Corbin.

Loser has to delete their profile and never come back to BGR
Show the people of Corbin you believe in them more than their administration like you’ve been saying.


Or if you just don’t have the confidence in Corbin and their qb to pull off a 7 point spread, I’ll lower the stakes.

I’ll give you Corbin and 7 points. you lose, you can’t start any new threads until after the new year.

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