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01-16-2012, 11:39 AM
Here is Gallup's assessment of Obama's challenges:
Americans' current evaluation of the president's job performance, their satisfaction with the direction of the country, and their ratings of the economy are all on the lower end of what Gallup has found at or near the start of previous years when an incumbent president sought re-election. While these comparisons are not auspicious for Obama's re-election, a broader view of how these ratings have changed over the course of previous presidential election years suggests it is not too late for the numbers to shift in Obama's favor. The same can also be said of the nation's unemployment rate and GDP.
The trend points are limited -- there are only eight past elections to review. But on the basis of the available data, it appears that Obama's March approval rating and U.S. satisfaction level could be more useful than January's in portending the election outcome. By March, it should also be clearer whether unemployment is continuing the swift decline seen since September or if that momentum has stalled, and whether the nation's economy is picking up speed.
Professor Chris Wlezien of Temple University may give the president a little more time than that to turn things around, as he has determined that economic indicators affect voter preferences in the year leading up to the election, although particularly through June. Changes in the economy after that have less impact, in part because of the lag times in reporting and because voters' opinions of the candidates are hardening.
Regardless, it's clear that today's numbers present challenges for Obama to overcome, but that he has time to do so. Given that, we can expect a strong focus on the economy in his State of the Union address later this month, and more efforts like last week's elevation of the Small Business Administration to a cabinet-level agency -- decisions that signal Obama is taking a jobs-oriented approach to repairing the economy.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/...titialskip
Americans' current evaluation of the president's job performance, their satisfaction with the direction of the country, and their ratings of the economy are all on the lower end of what Gallup has found at or near the start of previous years when an incumbent president sought re-election. While these comparisons are not auspicious for Obama's re-election, a broader view of how these ratings have changed over the course of previous presidential election years suggests it is not too late for the numbers to shift in Obama's favor. The same can also be said of the nation's unemployment rate and GDP.
The trend points are limited -- there are only eight past elections to review. But on the basis of the available data, it appears that Obama's March approval rating and U.S. satisfaction level could be more useful than January's in portending the election outcome. By March, it should also be clearer whether unemployment is continuing the swift decline seen since September or if that momentum has stalled, and whether the nation's economy is picking up speed.
Professor Chris Wlezien of Temple University may give the president a little more time than that to turn things around, as he has determined that economic indicators affect voter preferences in the year leading up to the election, although particularly through June. Changes in the economy after that have less impact, in part because of the lag times in reporting and because voters' opinions of the candidates are hardening.
Regardless, it's clear that today's numbers present challenges for Obama to overcome, but that he has time to do so. Given that, we can expect a strong focus on the economy in his State of the Union address later this month, and more efforts like last week's elevation of the Small Business Administration to a cabinet-level agency -- decisions that signal Obama is taking a jobs-oriented approach to repairing the economy.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/...titialskip
01-18-2012, 06:33 PM
01-18-2012, 07:06 PM
I believe all this shows that Obama is seen as a weak and ineffective president. However, the Republican candidates are seen as as bad or worse.
Therefore, most will choose the weakling they have over the weakling they don't know.
Of course, the fact that many millions of voters contribute nothing financially to the welfare of the country and, instead, take from the system, improves Obama's chances since he is seen as the one who will make no demands upon those who live off the rest of us. Socialists work that way.
Therefore, most will choose the weakling they have over the weakling they don't know.
Of course, the fact that many millions of voters contribute nothing financially to the welfare of the country and, instead, take from the system, improves Obama's chances since he is seen as the one who will make no demands upon those who live off the rest of us. Socialists work that way.
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