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12-23-2024, 09:09 PM
Thought it'd be fun to do our own Bracketology with the top 16 or so teams. This will probably turn into a "top 16 seeds" and wherever we see Kentucky ending up. Here's my thoughts on where things would be if the season ended today-- these rankings are going to be heavily influenced by a few things, namely: how good I think the teams actually are, the historical favoritism shown toward some schools (*cough* Duke), and an assumption of how a team finished in their conference. You'll see that I bumped up some teams like Houston or North Carolina on the assumption that they'll pick it up and knocked out (Purdue) or bumped down (Florida, Texas A&M) others who might not.
Regional Sites:
East - Newark, NJ
South - Atlanta, GA
Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
West - San Francisco, CA
#1 Seeds:
1. Auburn/SEC Champ (South)
2. Duke/ACC Champ (East)
3. Iowa St./Big XII Champ (Midwest)
4. Oregon/Big Ten Champ (West)
#2 Seeds:
5. Tennessee/SEC #2 (West)
6. UConn/Big East Champ (East)
7. Marquette/Big East Runner-Up (Midwest)
8. Houston/Big XII Runner-Up (South)
#3 Seeds:
9. Alabama/SEC #3 (Midwest)
10. Kansas/Big XII #3 (South)
11. Michigan State/Big Ten #2 (East)
12. Gonzaga/Top "Small Conference" (West)
#4 Seeds:
13. Kentucky/SEC #4 (East)
14. San Diego St./MWC #1 (South)
15. Mississippi State/SEC #5 (West)
16. UCLA/Big Ten #3 (Midwest)
***If anyone slips in to the above, then the ACC's #2 is a strong possibility. Hard to include five SEC and three Big Ten and Big XII teams without also including at least a 2nd from the ACC, but right now, SMU and Clemson don't really fit the bill. North Carolina currently has five losses, but they were to really, really good teams and they probably end up being the ACC's 2nd highest seed. Same logic goes for the Big East #3, don't know that St. John's has quite enough to get there (they've lost to Baylor and Georgia, and their 2 point win over Providence doesn't look good); Georgetown hasn't played anyone.
If I had to include a #5 line and #6 line, I'd have:
#5 Seeds:
17. Baylor/Big XII #4 (West)
18. North Carolina/ACC #2 (Midwest)
19. St. John's/Big East #3 (East)
20. Dayton/A-10 #1 (South)
#6 Seeds:
21. Illinois/Big Ten #4 (South)
22. Florida/SEC #6 (West)
23. Drake/MVC #1 (East)
24. Michigan/Big Ten #5 (Midwest)
Considered Utah State for one of the final #6 seeds and think that the MVC Champion will be in the mix for anywhere from a 4-9 seed, depending on how dominant someone looks and whether or not they win both the regular season and conference championship. I assumed that they'd be runner-up to San Diego State and can't see the MVC getting two top 6 seeds.
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Creighton, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Memphis are some more non-SEC teams that will probably be in the discussion at various points.
There's a lot of Big XII flavor, but their low-upper to mid-tier teams will have some nice opportunities to knock off some "good, but not quite championship level" teams and get resume building wins. The conference also would have looked much better on the whole if Arizona hadn't melted down against quality non-conference competition; if they get get hot in conference, it could hurt everyone's metrics and overall profile. West Virginia is a team that could really help itself out-- they already have wins over Gonzaga and Georgetown and get Iowa State, Houston, Cincinnati and Arizona State at home. They have losses to Pitt (in a rivalry game) and Louisville (when Pryor was healthy) that won't grade well by metrics alone, but I could see the committee factoring that in if they finish well.
Regional Finals (if chalk):
East (Newark) -
1. Duke vs. 4. Kentucky (or 5. St. John's)
2. UConn vs. 3. Michigan State (or 6. Drake)
South (Atlanta) -
1. Auburn vs. 4. San Diego St. (or 5. Dayton)
2. Houston vs. 3. Kansas (or 6. Illinois)
Midwest (Indianapolis) -
1. Iowa St. vs. 4. UCLA (or 5. North Carolina)
2. Marquette vs. 3. Alabama (or 6. Michigan)
West (San Francisco) -
1. Oregon vs. 4. Mississippi State (or 5. Baylor)
2. Tennessee vs. 3. Gonzaga (or 6. Florida)
Above brackets would have some nice match-ups for the networks and fans-- and let's be real, the committee is going to look out for their brand and the networks first and fans after.
East is loaded with tradition and you've got the Kentucky/Duke/UConn storylines built in, and a Kentucky/St. John's match-up could make for one of the most compelling Sweet 16 games in recent memory.
South gives the easiest road to #1 overall Auburn, but you still have some name brands in Houston and Kansas. Having two Big XII teams that will play each other at least twice as the #2 and #3 seeds in the same region (to potentially meet in the Sweet 16) is unlikely to happen, but it makes more sense than almost anything else you'd come up with.
West is usually going to be your weaker bracket and if the SEC has two #1s or #2s, you can bet that at least one of them will be there and at least one, but probably two, of your West Coast teams like Oregon and Gonzaga are playing close to home.
Midwest might not have a blue blood contender or be filled with teams who score tons, but it's good top to bottom and other than UCLA at #4 or possibly Marquette at #2, I don't know that any of their other teams are near the "worst of" their seed line.
Regional Sites:
East - Newark, NJ
South - Atlanta, GA
Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
West - San Francisco, CA
#1 Seeds:
1. Auburn/SEC Champ (South)
2. Duke/ACC Champ (East)
3. Iowa St./Big XII Champ (Midwest)
4. Oregon/Big Ten Champ (West)
#2 Seeds:
5. Tennessee/SEC #2 (West)
6. UConn/Big East Champ (East)
7. Marquette/Big East Runner-Up (Midwest)
8. Houston/Big XII Runner-Up (South)
#3 Seeds:
9. Alabama/SEC #3 (Midwest)
10. Kansas/Big XII #3 (South)
11. Michigan State/Big Ten #2 (East)
12. Gonzaga/Top "Small Conference" (West)
#4 Seeds:
13. Kentucky/SEC #4 (East)
14. San Diego St./MWC #1 (South)
15. Mississippi State/SEC #5 (West)
16. UCLA/Big Ten #3 (Midwest)
***If anyone slips in to the above, then the ACC's #2 is a strong possibility. Hard to include five SEC and three Big Ten and Big XII teams without also including at least a 2nd from the ACC, but right now, SMU and Clemson don't really fit the bill. North Carolina currently has five losses, but they were to really, really good teams and they probably end up being the ACC's 2nd highest seed. Same logic goes for the Big East #3, don't know that St. John's has quite enough to get there (they've lost to Baylor and Georgia, and their 2 point win over Providence doesn't look good); Georgetown hasn't played anyone.
If I had to include a #5 line and #6 line, I'd have:
#5 Seeds:
17. Baylor/Big XII #4 (West)
18. North Carolina/ACC #2 (Midwest)
19. St. John's/Big East #3 (East)
20. Dayton/A-10 #1 (South)
#6 Seeds:
21. Illinois/Big Ten #4 (South)
22. Florida/SEC #6 (West)
23. Drake/MVC #1 (East)
24. Michigan/Big Ten #5 (Midwest)
Considered Utah State for one of the final #6 seeds and think that the MVC Champion will be in the mix for anywhere from a 4-9 seed, depending on how dominant someone looks and whether or not they win both the regular season and conference championship. I assumed that they'd be runner-up to San Diego State and can't see the MVC getting two top 6 seeds.
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Creighton, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Memphis are some more non-SEC teams that will probably be in the discussion at various points.
There's a lot of Big XII flavor, but their low-upper to mid-tier teams will have some nice opportunities to knock off some "good, but not quite championship level" teams and get resume building wins. The conference also would have looked much better on the whole if Arizona hadn't melted down against quality non-conference competition; if they get get hot in conference, it could hurt everyone's metrics and overall profile. West Virginia is a team that could really help itself out-- they already have wins over Gonzaga and Georgetown and get Iowa State, Houston, Cincinnati and Arizona State at home. They have losses to Pitt (in a rivalry game) and Louisville (when Pryor was healthy) that won't grade well by metrics alone, but I could see the committee factoring that in if they finish well.
Regional Finals (if chalk):
East (Newark) -
1. Duke vs. 4. Kentucky (or 5. St. John's)
2. UConn vs. 3. Michigan State (or 6. Drake)
South (Atlanta) -
1. Auburn vs. 4. San Diego St. (or 5. Dayton)
2. Houston vs. 3. Kansas (or 6. Illinois)
Midwest (Indianapolis) -
1. Iowa St. vs. 4. UCLA (or 5. North Carolina)
2. Marquette vs. 3. Alabama (or 6. Michigan)
West (San Francisco) -
1. Oregon vs. 4. Mississippi State (or 5. Baylor)
2. Tennessee vs. 3. Gonzaga (or 6. Florida)
Above brackets would have some nice match-ups for the networks and fans-- and let's be real, the committee is going to look out for their brand and the networks first and fans after.
East is loaded with tradition and you've got the Kentucky/Duke/UConn storylines built in, and a Kentucky/St. John's match-up could make for one of the most compelling Sweet 16 games in recent memory.
South gives the easiest road to #1 overall Auburn, but you still have some name brands in Houston and Kansas. Having two Big XII teams that will play each other at least twice as the #2 and #3 seeds in the same region (to potentially meet in the Sweet 16) is unlikely to happen, but it makes more sense than almost anything else you'd come up with.
West is usually going to be your weaker bracket and if the SEC has two #1s or #2s, you can bet that at least one of them will be there and at least one, but probably two, of your West Coast teams like Oregon and Gonzaga are playing close to home.
Midwest might not have a blue blood contender or be filled with teams who score tons, but it's good top to bottom and other than UCLA at #4 or possibly Marquette at #2, I don't know that any of their other teams are near the "worst of" their seed line.
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12-31-2024, 03:14 AM
Rating the conferences from top to bottom as of today (early AM on New Year's Eve, when most teams have only 1 non-conference game remaining):
1. SEC
2. Big XII
3. Big Ten
4. Big East
5. ACC
SEC has the best team (Auburn), two more teams that are legit top 10 (Alabama and Tennessee), and a handful of others who are legit top 20-25 (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida). If everyone stays healthy, I think you probably see Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Ole Miss in the Top 25 or just outside and "receiving votes" for most of the season. Georgia and Texas are good enough to crack the top 25. I've been talking about how underrated Georgia seems, but they also have a really brutal schedule-- they play seven straight games against ranked teams to open conference play and then five of their next eight games are against ranked teams. Given that, most probably aren't going to hear about how good they could be unless they pull off a couple of upsets. Overall, I think the SEC gets ten (10) bids to the Big Dance, depending mostly on bid thieves. 12 bids just seems too ambitious, though anywhere from 9 to 11 wouldn't shock me.
Big XII has Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, and a bunch of really solid teams. Think that getting a #1 seed, one of the middle #2 seeds, and one of the high #3 seeds is certainly possible. Right now, the metrics love the conference, with them having 3 of KenPom's Top 9 (the SEC has 4). Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are all top 25-type, tournament teams. That's six (6) bids and they'll probably get one or two more out of Arizona State, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona, etc. as well. I have them ahead of the Big Ten because their top three or so teams outweigh the overall depth in the middle of the B10's giant pack.
Big Ten doesn't have a premier team. They're deep, but I wouldn't even feel confident saying "I don't know who it will be, but one Big Ten team makes the Final Four". Oregon is good and historically have some great seasons where they peak late and upset their way through the West Region. Because of the travel logistics involved with them and UCLA having to visit places like Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, etc., I don't know that they'll be able to avoid an extra loss that could end up knee-capping them when it comes to seeding. Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State are all tournament quality teams. The computers (KenPom, etc.) actually have the Wolverines above everyone right now. That's seven (7) bids so far. Maryland and Wisconsin would be in if the season ended today. Nebraska, and probably Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana are all tournament or bubble teams. 10 bids isn't out of the question, but I don't think 7 is either, especially when top teams start losing to lower teams during cross-country trips.
Big East is pretty top-heavy. Marquette is a legit top 10 team. UConn is a top five team in games where Hurley hasn't pushed the refs too far. I see the league getting at least one of the #2 seeds and one of the #3 seeds. St. John's has a nice resume and probably has already done enough to ensure that they don't get left out two years in a row so long as they don't completely implode the rest of the way; the way that Georgia and Baylor finish will mean a lot to them. Creighton should also get in. That's four (4) bids so far, with five (5) total being their floor. Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Xavier, DePaul, and Butler are bubble type teams who could play their way in. Butler had a huge stretch of games with four fairly close losses to Houston, Wisconsin, Marquette, and UConn in a five-game stretch; I'm guessing that this keeps them out, but it goes to show that they can play with anyone.
ACC has Duke as one of the top teams. I'm not entirely sold on a Duke team that doesn't have a healthy Maluach, but they've got a very manageable conference schedule and a non-conference win over Auburn that will protect their seeding (as if the committee doesn't do that anyway). The importance of their wins over Arizona and Louisville are fading fast. Their two losses are to Kentucky and Kansas by a combined 7 points and both were on a neutral floor, so those won't hurt them. Clemson is a tournament team. Past that, things get interesting. I think North Carolina plays themselves in, but they don't have much margin of error unless they want to count on playing well in the ACC Tournament. At least one, but probably two of the bubble-type teams like SMU, PIttsburgh, Florida State, Wake Forest, or Louisville making it in, as I can't see a major conference getting less than four (4) or five (5) bids.
Past the above, the following leagues have a chance at multiple bids:
Mountain West (2-3 bids): San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, and/or Conference Champ
Missouri Valley (2 bids): Drake, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Murray St., and/or Conference Champ
If the West Coast Conference wants multiple bids, then Saint Mary's probably needs to win their conference tournament or at least beat a ranked Gonzaga in the regular season and have a strong showing otherwise.
1. SEC
2. Big XII
3. Big Ten
4. Big East
5. ACC
SEC has the best team (Auburn), two more teams that are legit top 10 (Alabama and Tennessee), and a handful of others who are legit top 20-25 (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida). If everyone stays healthy, I think you probably see Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Ole Miss in the Top 25 or just outside and "receiving votes" for most of the season. Georgia and Texas are good enough to crack the top 25. I've been talking about how underrated Georgia seems, but they also have a really brutal schedule-- they play seven straight games against ranked teams to open conference play and then five of their next eight games are against ranked teams. Given that, most probably aren't going to hear about how good they could be unless they pull off a couple of upsets. Overall, I think the SEC gets ten (10) bids to the Big Dance, depending mostly on bid thieves. 12 bids just seems too ambitious, though anywhere from 9 to 11 wouldn't shock me.
Big XII has Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, and a bunch of really solid teams. Think that getting a #1 seed, one of the middle #2 seeds, and one of the high #3 seeds is certainly possible. Right now, the metrics love the conference, with them having 3 of KenPom's Top 9 (the SEC has 4). Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are all top 25-type, tournament teams. That's six (6) bids and they'll probably get one or two more out of Arizona State, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona, etc. as well. I have them ahead of the Big Ten because their top three or so teams outweigh the overall depth in the middle of the B10's giant pack.
Big Ten doesn't have a premier team. They're deep, but I wouldn't even feel confident saying "I don't know who it will be, but one Big Ten team makes the Final Four". Oregon is good and historically have some great seasons where they peak late and upset their way through the West Region. Because of the travel logistics involved with them and UCLA having to visit places like Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, etc., I don't know that they'll be able to avoid an extra loss that could end up knee-capping them when it comes to seeding. Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State are all tournament quality teams. The computers (KenPom, etc.) actually have the Wolverines above everyone right now. That's seven (7) bids so far. Maryland and Wisconsin would be in if the season ended today. Nebraska, and probably Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana are all tournament or bubble teams. 10 bids isn't out of the question, but I don't think 7 is either, especially when top teams start losing to lower teams during cross-country trips.
Big East is pretty top-heavy. Marquette is a legit top 10 team. UConn is a top five team in games where Hurley hasn't pushed the refs too far. I see the league getting at least one of the #2 seeds and one of the #3 seeds. St. John's has a nice resume and probably has already done enough to ensure that they don't get left out two years in a row so long as they don't completely implode the rest of the way; the way that Georgia and Baylor finish will mean a lot to them. Creighton should also get in. That's four (4) bids so far, with five (5) total being their floor. Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Xavier, DePaul, and Butler are bubble type teams who could play their way in. Butler had a huge stretch of games with four fairly close losses to Houston, Wisconsin, Marquette, and UConn in a five-game stretch; I'm guessing that this keeps them out, but it goes to show that they can play with anyone.
ACC has Duke as one of the top teams. I'm not entirely sold on a Duke team that doesn't have a healthy Maluach, but they've got a very manageable conference schedule and a non-conference win over Auburn that will protect their seeding (as if the committee doesn't do that anyway). The importance of their wins over Arizona and Louisville are fading fast. Their two losses are to Kentucky and Kansas by a combined 7 points and both were on a neutral floor, so those won't hurt them. Clemson is a tournament team. Past that, things get interesting. I think North Carolina plays themselves in, but they don't have much margin of error unless they want to count on playing well in the ACC Tournament. At least one, but probably two of the bubble-type teams like SMU, PIttsburgh, Florida State, Wake Forest, or Louisville making it in, as I can't see a major conference getting less than four (4) or five (5) bids.
Past the above, the following leagues have a chance at multiple bids:
Mountain West (2-3 bids): San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, and/or Conference Champ
Missouri Valley (2 bids): Drake, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Murray St., and/or Conference Champ
If the West Coast Conference wants multiple bids, then Saint Mary's probably needs to win their conference tournament or at least beat a ranked Gonzaga in the regular season and have a strong showing otherwise.
01-15-2025, 05:10 AM
Updated as of the conclusion of games on 1/14:
1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Iowa St. (Big XII #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
2's:
Marquette (Big East #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
Kansas (Big XII #2)
SEC #3 (Alabama/Tennessee)
3's:
Houston (Big XII #3)
UConn (Big East #2)
Kentucky (SEC #4)
Illinois (Big Ten #2)
4's:
Florida (SEC #5)
Oregon (Big Ten #3)
Gonzaga (WCC #1)
Memphis (American #1)
If the same team wins the Big Ten regular season and conference championships, I don't see them not getting a #1 or the highest #2 seed. Michigan State and Michigan look like the the top options there, even if their resume leaves plenty to be desired. Splitting the regular season and conference crown but performing really well in the other is going to be enough for a #2 at least.
Big XII race is shaping up nicely. Barring injury, I'd think Iowa State, Kansas, and Houston are all going to be on the #1-3 seed line at minimum. Houston is still a team that I expect to rise throughout the season. They only lost to Auburn by 5 in one of the Tigers' stiffest tests.
UConn looked like they'd rebounded until they took another loss this week. Marquette was taken to OT by a DePaul team that's 0-7 in conference play. St. John's will be in the tournament, but they'll need a win over one of those two (they play twice each) to have a shot at the 4-5 seed line.
Memphis may seem like an outlier. They've lost to Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas State. They also have wins over UConn, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Clemson, Missouri, and UNLV. Given where the Mississippi schools and Michigan State stand at the moment, they'd probably be the last #4 or highest #5 if the season ended today.
SEC teams are going to keep beating up on each other. That's a recipe to get lots of team in and seeded well overall, but losses like the one Florida took tonight (to Missouri in Gainesville) are going to really hurt any individual team's overall metrics when evaluating seed lines and geographic preference. Road losses or losses to higher ranked teams won't hurt as bad, but losing as a home favorite will really hurt.
Right now, I'd think that the SEC could get 11-12 teams , with the total mostly being dependent on how many teams steal bids and whether a fringe team like an Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Texas has a huge upset and plays well in the conference tournament.
Auburn is a lock. Even if they lose out, you can't tell me that a team with wins over Iowa State, Houston, Purdue, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Memphis, and North Carolina doesn't get a bid. The biggest question right now is how long they'll be without Broome and what they'd have to do to lose their grip on the #1 overall seed in the field.
Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky might as well be locks. Biggest question for each of those teams is how they separate themselves from the others and what seed lines and geographic sites they'll land.
Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M are just outside of the above group, but will probably be there with a couple more wins. It's not time to start booking rooms, but considering their resumes and remaining schedules, the wheels would have to fall off.
That's 8 bids for 16 of the teams.
I think Georgia gets in. I've liked them as a plucky underdog but think they'll stumble plenty down the stretch, especially over the next few games, because they aren't the 23rd best team in the nation and are just going to get exposed, especially with Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, and Florida in their next four. At the same time, they have a lottery pick who is the unquestioned leader of the team and guy you run everything through. They're pretty well coached and already have a win over Kentucky, St. John's, and Oklahoma. Win most of the ones that they should and pull a mild upset or two to make up for the losses (even if it's over a Texas A&M, Mississippi State, or Missouri) and they'll be in.
Missouri has really helped their cause with a road win over Florida. They've also beaten Kansas and their losses are to quality teams (Memphis, Illinois, and Auburn). No debate as to whether they're even a bubble team today.
That's 10 bids for 16 teams. Here's where things get dicey.
Oklahoma should start worrying. While it's not time to panic quite yet, they are 0-3 in conference play and their biggest wins are Michigan and Arizona. Michigan was beaten by Arkansas and Wake Forest. Yikes. Double yikes when you consider that their hosting Kentucky (who'll be coming off a trip to Tuscaloosa) for a late mid-week tip might be a win they'll need to solidify a bid. Let's see how their three game stretch with Texas, South Carolina, and Arkansas goes.
If the season ended today, I'd say Oklahoma gets the 11th bid and the rest are in the NIT or watching from home.
Arkansas is firmly a bubble team at best. They've lost four straight in conference play, with the latest coming to LSU. Michigan is their marquee win, and there isn't anything past that. They've really dug themselves into a hole and need to do at least two of the following three if they want a bid-- a.) get two to three more true quality wins; b.) count on Michigan closing strong; and/or c.) play well in the conference tournament. They have more than enough talent to control their own fate, but we're familiar with Calipari and if they only get one of those, they'll be sweating coming Selection Sunday (unless the two to three quality wins are over Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee and/or Kentucky).
Texas is in Oklahoma and Arkansas' shoes, but without big wins. Their biggest win is Syracuse or NC State. That isn't a tournament team's resume. The best thing that they have going for them is that Auburn, Tennessee, and a trip to College Station are in their rear-view mirror. They have Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in their next five. They need to win at least two of those, then take care of business (read: get at least two wins) against LSU, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt if they want to stay in the discussion. Past that, they'd need to to count on pulling off both a major and a couple of mild upsets.
LSU has an SEC win, but it's over Arkansas. South Carolina and Vanderbilt don't have tournament resumes either. I won't go into the work any of those have to do until they do some of it first.
1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Iowa St. (Big XII #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
2's:
Marquette (Big East #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
Kansas (Big XII #2)
SEC #3 (Alabama/Tennessee)
3's:
Houston (Big XII #3)
UConn (Big East #2)
Kentucky (SEC #4)
Illinois (Big Ten #2)
4's:
Florida (SEC #5)
Oregon (Big Ten #3)
Gonzaga (WCC #1)
Memphis (American #1)
If the same team wins the Big Ten regular season and conference championships, I don't see them not getting a #1 or the highest #2 seed. Michigan State and Michigan look like the the top options there, even if their resume leaves plenty to be desired. Splitting the regular season and conference crown but performing really well in the other is going to be enough for a #2 at least.
Big XII race is shaping up nicely. Barring injury, I'd think Iowa State, Kansas, and Houston are all going to be on the #1-3 seed line at minimum. Houston is still a team that I expect to rise throughout the season. They only lost to Auburn by 5 in one of the Tigers' stiffest tests.
UConn looked like they'd rebounded until they took another loss this week. Marquette was taken to OT by a DePaul team that's 0-7 in conference play. St. John's will be in the tournament, but they'll need a win over one of those two (they play twice each) to have a shot at the 4-5 seed line.
Memphis may seem like an outlier. They've lost to Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas State. They also have wins over UConn, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Clemson, Missouri, and UNLV. Given where the Mississippi schools and Michigan State stand at the moment, they'd probably be the last #4 or highest #5 if the season ended today.
SEC teams are going to keep beating up on each other. That's a recipe to get lots of team in and seeded well overall, but losses like the one Florida took tonight (to Missouri in Gainesville) are going to really hurt any individual team's overall metrics when evaluating seed lines and geographic preference. Road losses or losses to higher ranked teams won't hurt as bad, but losing as a home favorite will really hurt.
Right now, I'd think that the SEC could get 11-12 teams , with the total mostly being dependent on how many teams steal bids and whether a fringe team like an Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Texas has a huge upset and plays well in the conference tournament.
Auburn is a lock. Even if they lose out, you can't tell me that a team with wins over Iowa State, Houston, Purdue, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Memphis, and North Carolina doesn't get a bid. The biggest question right now is how long they'll be without Broome and what they'd have to do to lose their grip on the #1 overall seed in the field.
Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky might as well be locks. Biggest question for each of those teams is how they separate themselves from the others and what seed lines and geographic sites they'll land.
Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M are just outside of the above group, but will probably be there with a couple more wins. It's not time to start booking rooms, but considering their resumes and remaining schedules, the wheels would have to fall off.
That's 8 bids for 16 of the teams.
I think Georgia gets in. I've liked them as a plucky underdog but think they'll stumble plenty down the stretch, especially over the next few games, because they aren't the 23rd best team in the nation and are just going to get exposed, especially with Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, and Florida in their next four. At the same time, they have a lottery pick who is the unquestioned leader of the team and guy you run everything through. They're pretty well coached and already have a win over Kentucky, St. John's, and Oklahoma. Win most of the ones that they should and pull a mild upset or two to make up for the losses (even if it's over a Texas A&M, Mississippi State, or Missouri) and they'll be in.
Missouri has really helped their cause with a road win over Florida. They've also beaten Kansas and their losses are to quality teams (Memphis, Illinois, and Auburn). No debate as to whether they're even a bubble team today.
That's 10 bids for 16 teams. Here's where things get dicey.
Oklahoma should start worrying. While it's not time to panic quite yet, they are 0-3 in conference play and their biggest wins are Michigan and Arizona. Michigan was beaten by Arkansas and Wake Forest. Yikes. Double yikes when you consider that their hosting Kentucky (who'll be coming off a trip to Tuscaloosa) for a late mid-week tip might be a win they'll need to solidify a bid. Let's see how their three game stretch with Texas, South Carolina, and Arkansas goes.
If the season ended today, I'd say Oklahoma gets the 11th bid and the rest are in the NIT or watching from home.
Arkansas is firmly a bubble team at best. They've lost four straight in conference play, with the latest coming to LSU. Michigan is their marquee win, and there isn't anything past that. They've really dug themselves into a hole and need to do at least two of the following three if they want a bid-- a.) get two to three more true quality wins; b.) count on Michigan closing strong; and/or c.) play well in the conference tournament. They have more than enough talent to control their own fate, but we're familiar with Calipari and if they only get one of those, they'll be sweating coming Selection Sunday (unless the two to three quality wins are over Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee and/or Kentucky).
Texas is in Oklahoma and Arkansas' shoes, but without big wins. Their biggest win is Syracuse or NC State. That isn't a tournament team's resume. The best thing that they have going for them is that Auburn, Tennessee, and a trip to College Station are in their rear-view mirror. They have Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in their next five. They need to win at least two of those, then take care of business (read: get at least two wins) against LSU, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt if they want to stay in the discussion. Past that, they'd need to to count on pulling off both a major and a couple of mild upsets.
LSU has an SEC win, but it's over Arkansas. South Carolina and Vanderbilt don't have tournament resumes either. I won't go into the work any of those have to do until they do some of it first.
01-21-2025, 02:09 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2025, 02:11 AM by Cactus Jack.)
A little too soon for a full blown update, but Gonzaga's loss to Oregon State hurts both them and Kentucky. Duke has been beating up on some not-so-great teams and their metrics have really improved-- per KenPom.com, they are currently #3 in Adjusted Offense and #2 in Adjusted Defense.
Memphis and UConn are two other teams whose stocks will plummet.
West Virginia's win over Iowa State put them firmly in the field and they'll stay there unless they completely collapse late.
Good chance that Tennessee's loss to Vanderbilt is the death-blow to them getting a #1 seed (unless they only lose two or three games the rest of the way and get help elsewhere). Vanderbilt was not a game could drop so soon after the Florida blowout. They have Mississippi State, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri in their next five, so going 3-2 and the discussion turning to their fight for a spot on the #2 seed line isn't out of the question.
We all saw what Alabama did in Rupp. That's a huge road win for a team with an already impressive resume, and if two SEC teams were to get #1 seeds, they'd have the inside track behind Auburn. Don't know that the loss does much to move Kentucky off the low #2, high #3 seed line that they were currently on, especially given everyone else's results.
Missouri is the SEC team of the week, and they have the wins over Florida and Kansas, but don't be shocked if they drop back out of the rankings in the next couple of weeks with a tough slate on tap from this weekend through the end of the first weekend in February. They'll see both Mississippi schools, Tennessee, and Texas A&M during that stretch.
Memphis and UConn are two other teams whose stocks will plummet.
West Virginia's win over Iowa State put them firmly in the field and they'll stay there unless they completely collapse late.
Good chance that Tennessee's loss to Vanderbilt is the death-blow to them getting a #1 seed (unless they only lose two or three games the rest of the way and get help elsewhere). Vanderbilt was not a game could drop so soon after the Florida blowout. They have Mississippi State, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri in their next five, so going 3-2 and the discussion turning to their fight for a spot on the #2 seed line isn't out of the question.
We all saw what Alabama did in Rupp. That's a huge road win for a team with an already impressive resume, and if two SEC teams were to get #1 seeds, they'd have the inside track behind Auburn. Don't know that the loss does much to move Kentucky off the low #2, high #3 seed line that they were currently on, especially given everyone else's results.
Missouri is the SEC team of the week, and they have the wins over Florida and Kansas, but don't be shocked if they drop back out of the rankings in the next couple of weeks with a tough slate on tap from this weekend through the end of the first weekend in February. They'll see both Mississippi schools, Tennessee, and Texas A&M during that stretch.
02-11-2025, 01:46 AM
Updated as of the conclusion of games on 2/10-- part of these are where teams stand today, but part are the reality that some teams will boost their profile by winning their conference tournament while others (*cough* SEC *cough*) will beat up on one another and knock someone down a seed line:
1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Houston (Big XII #1)
Alabama (SEC #2)
2's:
Iowa State (Big XII #2)
Florida (SEC #3)
St. John's (Big East #1)
Big Ten Champion (Illinois or Michigan St.)
3's:
Purdue (Big Ten #2)
Marquette (Big East #2)
Tennessee (SEC #4)
Illinois or Michigan St. (Big Ten #3)
4's:
Texas Tech (Big XII #3)
UConn (Big East #3)
Kentucky (SEC #5)
Kansas (Big XII #4)
Iowa State has been short-handed in some of their losses. Don't know that the public will notice the nuance, so sliding them down to the #2 line for the time being. Moving a "now getting the respect they deserve" Houston team onto the #1 line in their place. Kansas is sinking like a rock after their loss to Kansas State in a rivalry game.
Still can't see Texas A&M getting a top 4 seed right now. I know Lunardi has them as a #2 right now, but that is insanely inflated in my book. I won't go on another Purdue diatribe. If you need to know how I feel about them, re-read the above posts. Michigan State is still my pick to win the Big Ten, but I had to move them down after road losses to USC and UCLA. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt given the length and complexity of travel.
I don't want to put Kentucky in as #4 seed right now (their recent losses have dropped them to a high 5 until everyone's healthy), but I don't know that any other team has a great case ahead of them. UConn is good but their resume has it's warts too. Same for Gonzaga, who might not be the best team in their conference. There's lots of recency bias with Arizona-- started highly ranked, fell off, and now have a bunch of consecutive wins; they're still the same team that lost to a paper tiger Oklahoma and had to royally screw a short-handed Iowa State to win in overtime though. Ole Miss is a team who can play like a #3 or #4 on a given night (see: Kentucky & Alabama games) but they can also play like a low #5 or high #6 (see: three straight losses to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Missouri). Maybe Wisconsin or Maryland fits the bill, but I want to see more-- if I had to pick one of the two though, it'd be the Terps. That brings me back to a homer pick of Kentucky for the final #4 seed.
Kansas might not be the final #4 if the season ended today, but I'll bet on their tradition helping them find a way to end up there.
Arkansas has played their way in to the tournament, IMO. Still plenty of work left to do, but I think they're going to turn the corner and find their way into the First Four.
1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Houston (Big XII #1)
Alabama (SEC #2)
2's:
Iowa State (Big XII #2)
Florida (SEC #3)
St. John's (Big East #1)
Big Ten Champion (Illinois or Michigan St.)
3's:
Purdue (Big Ten #2)
Marquette (Big East #2)
Tennessee (SEC #4)
Illinois or Michigan St. (Big Ten #3)
4's:
Texas Tech (Big XII #3)
UConn (Big East #3)
Kentucky (SEC #5)
Kansas (Big XII #4)
Iowa State has been short-handed in some of their losses. Don't know that the public will notice the nuance, so sliding them down to the #2 line for the time being. Moving a "now getting the respect they deserve" Houston team onto the #1 line in their place. Kansas is sinking like a rock after their loss to Kansas State in a rivalry game.
Still can't see Texas A&M getting a top 4 seed right now. I know Lunardi has them as a #2 right now, but that is insanely inflated in my book. I won't go on another Purdue diatribe. If you need to know how I feel about them, re-read the above posts. Michigan State is still my pick to win the Big Ten, but I had to move them down after road losses to USC and UCLA. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt given the length and complexity of travel.
I don't want to put Kentucky in as #4 seed right now (their recent losses have dropped them to a high 5 until everyone's healthy), but I don't know that any other team has a great case ahead of them. UConn is good but their resume has it's warts too. Same for Gonzaga, who might not be the best team in their conference. There's lots of recency bias with Arizona-- started highly ranked, fell off, and now have a bunch of consecutive wins; they're still the same team that lost to a paper tiger Oklahoma and had to royally screw a short-handed Iowa State to win in overtime though. Ole Miss is a team who can play like a #3 or #4 on a given night (see: Kentucky & Alabama games) but they can also play like a low #5 or high #6 (see: three straight losses to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Missouri). Maybe Wisconsin or Maryland fits the bill, but I want to see more-- if I had to pick one of the two though, it'd be the Terps. That brings me back to a homer pick of Kentucky for the final #4 seed.
Kansas might not be the final #4 if the season ended today, but I'll bet on their tradition helping them find a way to end up there.
Arkansas has played their way in to the tournament, IMO. Still plenty of work left to do, but I think they're going to turn the corner and find their way into the First Four.
02-11-2025, 12:15 PM
Awesome job CJ! I'll tell ya what, your the best I've seen at breaking stuff down like this. You could blow the guys at ESPN outta the water at this stuff.
I can definitely see UK and St John's in the same bracket. I'm really hoping Morehead St wins their conference and gets in. If so they'll probably be in our side of the bracket too. The NCAA selection committee seems to be notorious for doing that lol
I can definitely see UK and St John's in the same bracket. I'm really hoping Morehead St wins their conference and gets in. If so they'll probably be in our side of the bracket too. The NCAA selection committee seems to be notorious for doing that lol
02-11-2025, 09:17 PM
Cj so Clemson is not making the tournament?
02-11-2025, 11:08 PM
(02-11-2025, 09:17 PM)plantmanky Wrote: Cj so Clemson is not making the tournament?
Clemson is #23 overall and has a win over Duke and Kentucky. UNC, Pitt, and Penn State are decent too. They're 20-5 with losses to Louisville, Memphis, Boise St., South Carolina, and Georgia Tech. Some of those are quality losses and others aren't, but at this point, I think it'd take a pretty epic collapse and some bid thieves to put them in the bubble conversation.
Things could be very different without the Duke result. But their big wins, being in the ACC, and their performance in last year's tournament (regardless of whether that should matter or not) will get them in.
02-12-2025, 01:31 AM
On cue: Michigan beats Purdue.
Not on cue: Michigan State is trailing Indiana late.
Speaking of teams who the committee loves to pair Kentucky with, Kansas State beat Arizona tonight, so they've now got a nice pair of back-to-back wins. There's lots of work to do, but they could be playing themselves into the field. If they miss it, they'll look back at some bad non-conference blemishes and also wish they had the TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma State losses in conference play back (they'd lost to Houston, Kansas, and Texas Tech as part of that six game skid). They have a manageable remaining schedule, but they'll still go into the conference tournament with work to do even if they win out. Their win over Cincinnati looked great at the time, but the Bearcats are 2-8 in their most recent games.
UConn came from behind to beat Creighton on the road. It would have been a devastating loss for UConn's seeding, but for now, they're still holding on. This isn't the same level of talent as their back-to-back national championship teams, but there are still pieces there. But for Hurley's melting down on the refs early this season, we're probably talking about them in much different conversations.
Not on cue: Michigan State is trailing Indiana late.
Speaking of teams who the committee loves to pair Kentucky with, Kansas State beat Arizona tonight, so they've now got a nice pair of back-to-back wins. There's lots of work to do, but they could be playing themselves into the field. If they miss it, they'll look back at some bad non-conference blemishes and also wish they had the TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma State losses in conference play back (they'd lost to Houston, Kansas, and Texas Tech as part of that six game skid). They have a manageable remaining schedule, but they'll still go into the conference tournament with work to do even if they win out. Their win over Cincinnati looked great at the time, but the Bearcats are 2-8 in their most recent games.
UConn came from behind to beat Creighton on the road. It would have been a devastating loss for UConn's seeding, but for now, they're still holding on. This isn't the same level of talent as their back-to-back national championship teams, but there are still pieces there. But for Hurley's melting down on the refs early this season, we're probably talking about them in much different conversations.
03-05-2025, 03:50 AM
1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Houston (Big XII #1)
Michigan State (Big Ten #1)
2's:
Alabama (SEC #2)
St. John's (Big East #1)
Florida (SEC #3)
Wisconsin (Big Ten #2)
3's:
Texas Tech (Big XII #2)
Tennessee (SEC #4)
Marquette (Big East #2)
Michigan/UCLA (Big Ten #3)
4's:
Iowa State (Big XII #3)
Texas A&M (SEC #5)
Creighton (Big East #3)
Kentucky (SEC #6)
5's:
Arizona (Big XII #4)
UConn (Big East #4)
Clemson (ACC #2)
Michigan/UCLA (Big Ten #4)
6's:
Missouri (SEC #7)
Oregon/Maryland/Purdue/Illinois (Big Ten #5)
Memphis (AAC #1)
St. Mary's (WCC #1)
7's:
Oregon/Maryland/Purdue/Illinois (Big Ten #6)
Ole Miss (SEC #8)
New Mexico (MWC #1)
BYU (Big XII #5)
8's:
Oregon/Maryland/Purdue/Illinois (Big Ten #7)
Kansas (Big XII #6)
Louisville (ACC #3)
Gonzaga (WCC #2)
9's:
San Diego State (MWC #2)
Oregon/Maryland/Purdue/Illinois (Big Ten #8)
Vanderbilt/Mississippi State (SEC #9)
Other Teams of Note:
Mississippi State - 10 or 9
Vanderbilt - 9, 10, or 11
Georgia - 10, 11, or 12 (Play-In)
Arkansas - 12, 11, or 10 (Play-In)
Texas - 12 or 11
Baylor - 11 or 12
UC San Diego - 11 or 12 (will be a trendy upset pick)
McNeese State - 11 or 12
Utah State - 12 or 13
VCU - 12 or 13
Drake - 13 or 12
Yale - 13 or 14
North Carolina - OUT
Indiana - OUT
***Because of how many teams will get in and rules on when teams from the same conference can meet, I'd be shocked if there weren't a #8 or #9 seed from the SEC. MSU and Vandy are in the best slots for those despite losses tonight. Performance in the conference tournament is a given for everyone in that range, but so is the outcome of MSU/Arkansas game. Texas or Oklahoma still have work to do to get in (and play each other)-- Texas is probably in with a win over Oklahoma, a Sooners win keeps their hopes alive, but it also causes utter chaos. I see at least one SEC school in the play-in game and have a feeling that Calipari and/or Asa Newell's Georgia teams would be nice ratings draws.
***Big Ten is kind of a jumble. I locked in Michigan State as the winner and WIsconsin at #2. Michigan has a tough remaining schedule. UCLA and Oregon are probably better than their records indicate, but will need runs to get better seeds. Maryland and Illinois are up and down. Purdue is on a terrible losing skid. Ohio State is on the bubble. Nebraska is a team that could be dangerous. Those teams will sort themselves out in the conference tournament. What I've predicated won't be exact, but they'll get a lot of teams in at a bunch of different seed lines.
***Mountain West will probably get another #9 or #10 seed, maybe both. They could have between two and four bids, so their league and mid-tier teams in the Big XII (West Virginia and Baylor) will be the most hurt by bid thieves.
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Houston (Big XII #1)
Michigan State (Big Ten #1)
2's:
Alabama (SEC #2)
St. John's (Big East #1)
Florida (SEC #3)
Wisconsin (Big Ten #2)
3's:
Texas Tech (Big XII #2)
Tennessee (SEC #4)
Marquette (Big East #2)
Michigan/UCLA (Big Ten #3)
4's:
Iowa State (Big XII #3)
Texas A&M (SEC #5)
Creighton (Big East #3)
Kentucky (SEC #6)
5's:
Arizona (Big XII #4)
UConn (Big East #4)
Clemson (ACC #2)
Michigan/UCLA (Big Ten #4)
6's:
Missouri (SEC #7)
Oregon/Maryland/Purdue/Illinois (Big Ten #5)
Memphis (AAC #1)
St. Mary's (WCC #1)
7's:
Oregon/Maryland/Purdue/Illinois (Big Ten #6)
Ole Miss (SEC #8)
New Mexico (MWC #1)
BYU (Big XII #5)
8's:
Oregon/Maryland/Purdue/Illinois (Big Ten #7)
Kansas (Big XII #6)
Louisville (ACC #3)
Gonzaga (WCC #2)
9's:
San Diego State (MWC #2)
Oregon/Maryland/Purdue/Illinois (Big Ten #8)
Vanderbilt/Mississippi State (SEC #9)
Other Teams of Note:
Mississippi State - 10 or 9
Vanderbilt - 9, 10, or 11
Georgia - 10, 11, or 12 (Play-In)
Arkansas - 12, 11, or 10 (Play-In)
Texas - 12 or 11
Baylor - 11 or 12
UC San Diego - 11 or 12 (will be a trendy upset pick)
McNeese State - 11 or 12
Utah State - 12 or 13
VCU - 12 or 13
Drake - 13 or 12
Yale - 13 or 14
North Carolina - OUT
Indiana - OUT
***Because of how many teams will get in and rules on when teams from the same conference can meet, I'd be shocked if there weren't a #8 or #9 seed from the SEC. MSU and Vandy are in the best slots for those despite losses tonight. Performance in the conference tournament is a given for everyone in that range, but so is the outcome of MSU/Arkansas game. Texas or Oklahoma still have work to do to get in (and play each other)-- Texas is probably in with a win over Oklahoma, a Sooners win keeps their hopes alive, but it also causes utter chaos. I see at least one SEC school in the play-in game and have a feeling that Calipari and/or Asa Newell's Georgia teams would be nice ratings draws.
***Big Ten is kind of a jumble. I locked in Michigan State as the winner and WIsconsin at #2. Michigan has a tough remaining schedule. UCLA and Oregon are probably better than their records indicate, but will need runs to get better seeds. Maryland and Illinois are up and down. Purdue is on a terrible losing skid. Ohio State is on the bubble. Nebraska is a team that could be dangerous. Those teams will sort themselves out in the conference tournament. What I've predicated won't be exact, but they'll get a lot of teams in at a bunch of different seed lines.
***Mountain West will probably get another #9 or #10 seed, maybe both. They could have between two and four bids, so their league and mid-tier teams in the Big XII (West Virginia and Baylor) will be the most hurt by bid thieves.
03-10-2025, 02:56 AM
In the SEC, I'll reiterate that it's going to be tough for the committee to seed everyone according to their rules (i.e., no conference versus conference in the first round, etc.). That gets even tougher if there are upsets and they're trying to come up with a bracket while the SEC Championship game is in progress. Because of all of this, I think we'll see at least one, but maybe two SEC teams playing in the First Four.
Arkansas helped themselves out with a win. They'll get a chance to pad their record with a revenge game against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament opener, with the winner meeting #8 Ole Miss in the next game. Arkansas matches up well with Ole Miss, at least from a physical standpoint and in that Beard's no middle could lead to a lot of open shots for Nelly Davis and Ivisic.
Texas' home loss to Oklahoma kept the Sooners' hopes alive, but it might have also knocked both them and Longhorns out of the tournament as well. Texas was seen as being in a better spot going in, and they could still get in with a win over Vanderbilt and decent showing against Texas A&M in the next round, but they probably need to win both to be a lock. Oklahoma gets Georgia, and the winner of that one is probably going to be locked in but the loser (or both if Oklahoma loses to Kentucky) will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
Mississippi State lost a close one to Arkansas but gets LSU in the opener. Win that and it's on to Missouri, which is a good match-up for them. Both will try to score a ton and each are in a spot where they could afford a loss to one another. Either would go into a quarterfinal against Florida with nothing to lose.
There's one bracket with four teams that are projected in the field right now and it plays out like this: Texas vs. Vanderbilt winner vs. Texas A&M, and the winner of that game plays Tennessee. One of those four teams HAS to get to the semi and none of them would be hurt by a loss to Auburn in the semi; given, one of those four is really going to help their seed line, while the rest are going to hurt their seed line and/or chances of getting in.
Kentucky probably doesn't drop below the 4-line with a narrow loss to either Oklahoma or Georgia. A Cats win in the opener and a decent showing against Alabama locks in a 3 seed. Even if Kentucky wins the whole thing, I don't think they go higher than a #3, so we're probably playing for geographic preference, tradition, and pride past the first game.
I guess there's a chance that UK gets to the #2 line IF they beat Georgia/Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, and Auburn in four straight, but they'd probably also need Tennessee to lose badly in their opener & hope that this was enough to get the committee to come to their senses about a not-as-good as everyone thinks Vols squad.
Auburn is locked into a #1 seed. At least one other SEC team should get a #1 seed (probably the Alabama/Florida winner). The SEC will get at least 1 other #2 seed (the Alabama/Florida loser) and possibly a second (likely Tennessee). Kentucky and Texas A&M look like #3 seeds. That means that the SEC has 6 of the top 12 overall teams and there has to be a spot for the (regular and/or post-season) champions of the Big XII, Big Ten, Big East, and ACC in there as well-- Houston and Duke are going to be no lower than 2 seeds regardless of what happens and St. John's won't be lower than a 3.
As for bid thieves--
Drake took care of business in the MVC Tournament. That's one less bid thief out there, as they were going to be in even if they lost their conference championship game.
Keep an eye on UC San Diego is probably in regardless, so keep an eye on the Big West Tournament. Same for VCU in the Atlantic 10 (which has Dayton on the Bubble).
St. Mary's or Gonzaga winning their conference tournament keeps another bid thief at bay. Same for any upsets in the Mountain West, which is expected to get three bids.
Arkansas helped themselves out with a win. They'll get a chance to pad their record with a revenge game against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament opener, with the winner meeting #8 Ole Miss in the next game. Arkansas matches up well with Ole Miss, at least from a physical standpoint and in that Beard's no middle could lead to a lot of open shots for Nelly Davis and Ivisic.
Texas' home loss to Oklahoma kept the Sooners' hopes alive, but it might have also knocked both them and Longhorns out of the tournament as well. Texas was seen as being in a better spot going in, and they could still get in with a win over Vanderbilt and decent showing against Texas A&M in the next round, but they probably need to win both to be a lock. Oklahoma gets Georgia, and the winner of that one is probably going to be locked in but the loser (or both if Oklahoma loses to Kentucky) will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
Mississippi State lost a close one to Arkansas but gets LSU in the opener. Win that and it's on to Missouri, which is a good match-up for them. Both will try to score a ton and each are in a spot where they could afford a loss to one another. Either would go into a quarterfinal against Florida with nothing to lose.
There's one bracket with four teams that are projected in the field right now and it plays out like this: Texas vs. Vanderbilt winner vs. Texas A&M, and the winner of that game plays Tennessee. One of those four teams HAS to get to the semi and none of them would be hurt by a loss to Auburn in the semi; given, one of those four is really going to help their seed line, while the rest are going to hurt their seed line and/or chances of getting in.
Kentucky probably doesn't drop below the 4-line with a narrow loss to either Oklahoma or Georgia. A Cats win in the opener and a decent showing against Alabama locks in a 3 seed. Even if Kentucky wins the whole thing, I don't think they go higher than a #3, so we're probably playing for geographic preference, tradition, and pride past the first game.
I guess there's a chance that UK gets to the #2 line IF they beat Georgia/Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, and Auburn in four straight, but they'd probably also need Tennessee to lose badly in their opener & hope that this was enough to get the committee to come to their senses about a not-as-good as everyone thinks Vols squad.
Auburn is locked into a #1 seed. At least one other SEC team should get a #1 seed (probably the Alabama/Florida winner). The SEC will get at least 1 other #2 seed (the Alabama/Florida loser) and possibly a second (likely Tennessee). Kentucky and Texas A&M look like #3 seeds. That means that the SEC has 6 of the top 12 overall teams and there has to be a spot for the (regular and/or post-season) champions of the Big XII, Big Ten, Big East, and ACC in there as well-- Houston and Duke are going to be no lower than 2 seeds regardless of what happens and St. John's won't be lower than a 3.
As for bid thieves--
Drake took care of business in the MVC Tournament. That's one less bid thief out there, as they were going to be in even if they lost their conference championship game.
Keep an eye on UC San Diego is probably in regardless, so keep an eye on the Big West Tournament. Same for VCU in the Atlantic 10 (which has Dayton on the Bubble).
St. Mary's or Gonzaga winning their conference tournament keeps another bid thief at bay. Same for any upsets in the Mountain West, which is expected to get three bids.
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