[ComfortEagle]

Just looked outside here in Richmond and it's started to snow again. It's now starting to stick to the cars.

[BCF4L]

Well, the 6Z gfs brings two snowstorms to Eastern KY. First one shows up at around hr. 172. This storm doesn't put out as much QPF, but nonetheless, its still snow. At hr. 276, the fun really starts. Cold air is already in place, the low tracks through Tennessee, and moves up the coast. QPF is alot higher during this storm, which looks like we could see at least a foot of snow. The 12Z will be coming out within the next hour, which will probably show a Northern Michigan storm instead of a storm for here in the bluegrass. It's so far away right now that it's hard to determine anything. However, on this latest run, the jet stream is sucking cold air from Alaska and Northern Canada into the US. This is good news for the cold air at least being in place. The freezing line is as far south as Central Florida during this time frame as well. Definitely some bone chilling temps heading our way as of now. I'll update this when the new runs of the GFS come out.

[ronald_reagan]

12z out yet?

[BCF4L]

Well the storm at 172 hrs is gone. No surprise there considering it only showed up on that one run. The storm for the 17th is still there. It is colder than that previous run, but not as strong. QPf's are lighter than on the 6z until it really bombs out in the northeast. I'm not as concerned with QPF's or positioning right now as I am the fact that the storm is still there. As long as it keeps showing up on the models, then we will be in for some kind of precip. It appears as if it will be cold enough for snow, so let's cross our fingers and hope the trend continues.

[ronald_reagan]

just had a chance to see the 12z gfs... and its GONE lol.. nothing at all for that time frame that i can see.. looks like a high is building in strongly with lots of cold....

the first storm for 168, its a rain maker at this point, goin up the missisipi river valley and eventually into the lakes.... the 276, nothing!

i really think the gfs overdoes it, in both extremes with temps... hot and cold...

i haven't checked the canadian model yet.. they seem to have a better grasp on cold air... i guess because they're always dealing with it lol

[ronald_reagan]

nevermind, i was on the wrong hour... lol

its there, but a late bloomer...

check out the 252, compared to the 264...

[ronald_reagan]

The low at 108 on 12z right now has an 'interesting' track, and plenty of cold air behind it, straight out of alaska and canada.. and has a great 24hr precip (2-3" for the upper ohio valley into the lakes.

if that storm decides to take a better track we've got quite a chance for a hefty snow, although at about 72 hours, i'll concede within 25-50 miles... right now we're lookin at a revised track of 200 miles south and east to really get this... lets hope that 18z and 0z turn this storm on!

its this time of year where track matter soooo much. it can give you 70 degree tornados, or sub freezing, 20 inch snow depending on 100 miles of difference in the track...

[BCF4L]

Here are some pictures from the 6Z gfs and the 12Z gfs. First 2 pictures will be from the 6Z. As you can see, we are below freezing, high pressure is in place in Southern Canada pumping cold air into the US, and the QPF's are high. This storm forms early allowing us to get precip on the front side of the storm. Once this storm cuts northward, we will get wrap around moisture that will give us even more in the form of snow. We would be talking upwards of a foot of snow.

In the final picture is the latest run of the GFS (12Z). This storm doesn't form as early, therefore leaving us with lower QPF's, thus meaning lower snow totals. If this were to happen, we would only see about 1-3 inches of snow, most of that occuring in the Eastern part of the state. Let's all hope for scenario one, but like I said, this is still 10 days away and you can't put all your faith in one run.

[BCF4L]

Ok so those pictures are smaller than I thought they were going to be. LOL

[ronald_reagan]

I agree completely, that QPF and track isn't of much concern on 10 day out storms, but its the fact that its still there. Great point.

do you think that its typical to have such southern storms and chances for nor'easters this early on in the year? and the polar air coming down into the plains. maybe its historically average? don't know.. but its definately not typical of or average of for the past 8-9 years....

[BCF4L]

Usually, you don't see this type of setup until February or March honestly. We have seen it in January, but hardly ever in December. The only reasoning I can think of is La Nina. Other than that, I really don't know why we are experiencing these Southern storms. Usually they don't come around until the majority of Canada is snowpacked. But, I seen a picture of snow and ice cover as of yesterday and it was astonishing. The entire country of Canada is snow covered, and the whole Northern half of the US is snow covered. Kentucky is the boundary of course.

[ronald_reagan]

Usually, you don't see this type of setup until February or March honestly. We have seen it in January, but hardly ever in December. The only reasoning I can think of is La Nina. Other than that, I really don't know why we are experiencing these Southern storms. Usually they don't come around until the majority of Canada is snowpacked. But, I seen a picture of snow and ice cover as of yesterday and it was astonishing. The entire country of Canada is snow covered, and the whole Northern half of the US is snow covered. Kentucky is the boundary of course.

its inspiring. it truly is. a lot of forecasters and even models, don't take into consideration the snowpack which exists. I think the GFS goes on historical averages in regards to snowpack (from what i've heard). but the snowpack that exists is truly amazing. we're dealing with 2-3 feet in parts of southern canada, on a permanent basis.

i think this is going to be a year to remember... it may be a lot of misses, but someone is getting SOMETHING.

[BCF4L]

its inspiring. it truly is. a lot of forecasters and even models, don't take into consideration the snowpack which exists. I think the GFS goes on historical averages in regards to snowpack (from what i've heard). but the snowpack that exists is truly amazing. we're dealing with 2-3 feet in parts of southern canada, on a permanent basis.

i think this is going to be a year to remember... it may be a lot of misses, but someone is getting SOMETHING.

It's definitely an active pattern. There have been many national "forecasters" saying that winter will be over after this week because they see a drastic warm-up that we can't recover from it. I call bullcrap on that. We are about to see a very active period over the next couple of weeks. Snowstorms will be common around here for the rest of the year. Who knows what January will have in store for us.

[ronald_reagan]

It's definitely an active pattern. There have been many national "forecasters" saying that winter will be over after this week because they see a drastic warm-up that we can't recover from it. I call bullcrap on that. We are about to see a very active period over the next couple of weeks. Snowstorms will be common around here for the rest of the year. Who knows what January will have in store for us.

Forecasters? or actors on the news? lol

[ronald_reagan]

latest 18z gfs still has the storm popping up coastal south carolina.... with strong tightening up in the northeast, but well off the coast throughout...

but hey, at least its still there, as you said earlier. it just the track with each new model is pushed even further off the coast..

[ComfortEagle]

Here's what I'm not getting. The radar is showing a storm to our west. And the forecast for tonights says that Richmond/Central KY is supposed to get rain showers tonight.

However, it's already 31 degrees here and is sure to drop a few more degrees, why then are they still calling for rain and not snow?

[ronald_reagan]

We're actually under a winter weather advisory here in Lexington.

[ComfortEagle]

We're actually under a winter weather advisory here in Lexington.

Right, but Richmond and Madison Co., just 20 minutes down the road, are not under that advisory.

I guess I can stay up and take pictures and send them in and be like
:flame:

[ronald_reagan]

ce,

temps are expected to rise slowly throughout the night and here in lexington only predicted to be a mix of rain/snow... changing to all rain.

being here in ky... its not odd to see as little as 5 miles make all the difference. i've seen an inch or two in northern lexington, and drizzle on richmond road lol

[ComfortEagle]

Poop.

[ronald_reagan]

Poop.

As we've been saying though, keep your eyes open about 9-10 days out... something is brewing on all the gfs models... in about 3-5 days we'll have a much better grasp on whats going on, as the NAM starts meshing with it.

It looks like the first of many major storms as of now.

[ronald_reagan]

bcf4l,

The trough / ridge pattern can be used as a medium range-forecasting tool. If the GFS model has a good handle on the evolution of the trough / ridge pattern, the forecast will do reasonably well. Keep in mind that beyond about 5 days, the GFS data output can change quite dramatically from one model run to the other. Small changes in the initial input into the model result in dramatic difference beyond the 5 day forecast period (i.e. butterfly effect). The trough / ridge pattern determines which regions will be cooler or warmer than normal and which regions have a higher likelihood of precipitation. Temperatures tend to be cooler than normal under amplified troughs and warmer than normal under amplified ridges. Precipitation tends to occur to the right of a highly amplified trough axis, along fronts and along shortwaves. The graphical output visual appearance from the GFS is similar to the NGM and ETA, just sometimes can be harder to read on the Internet because of the small panel size.

I was just doing some research and found that....... I think you would agree with this.

The GFS has a problem with overly doing both extremes of temps. I also feel the NAM under estimate the cold air, while its pretty good at warmer scenarios. There is just no way possible IMO that the we're lookin at -16 to -20 degree © this early in the year... but if so, we're in for it!!!!!!

[BCF4L]

I do agree with that, however, with this storm that is forecasted for around the 17th, it has been showing pretty much the same outcome each run. Yeah it's wobbling from east to west, but hasn't really shown the Northern trend like it usually does. It has kept it to the south which is odd for this far out. Usually by now, the GFS has shown about 15 different outcomes to one storm. But not this one for some reason. Still have around 10 days though to watch this. Don't be surprised to start seeing it trend north around 7 days, then start dropping back south around 2-3 days.

[ronald_reagan]

I do agree with that, however, with this storm that is forecasted for around the 17th, it has been showing pretty much the same outcome each run. Yeah it's wobbling from east to west, but hasn't really shown the Northern trend like it usually does. It has kept it to the south which is odd for this far out. Usually by now, the GFS has shown about 15 different outcomes to one storm. But not this one for some reason. Still have around 10 days though to watch this. Don't be surprised to start seeing it trend north around 7 days, then start dropping back south around 2-3 days.

On top of that.. don't be surprised to see it track north even during 48-60-72 frames......

I'm currently searching through a few other models to find what i agree with most. I've thought the GFS was the best up until the last few days.... so i'm thinking about some others. Does the NAM have any site that goes beyond 84 hours?


I'd like to see a composite view of all of them, and take the median on all tracks and trends..

[BCF4L]

I've never seen it past 84 hours. I'm sure meteorologists have them, but I've never seen one personally.

[BCF4L]

00Z Euro showing a strong storm. Shift that baby about 50 miles to the West and we have a ealry 90's storm on our hands. Here is a look at it.[Image: http://models.easternuswx.com/euro/ECM_0...TS_240.png]

[ronald_reagan]

00Z Euro showing a strong storm. Shift that baby about 50 miles to the West and we have a ealry 90's storm on our hands. Here is a look at it.[Image: http://models.easternuswx.com/euro/ECM_0...TS_240.png]

That storm is great, and I agree... 50-even 100 (IMO) would lay down 18+ in east ky....6-12 for lexvegas....

I think with the euro, and gfs feeling so strong about tthis... its wihout a doubt, happening. Where, how much water, and who much cold air are yet to be deteremind.

I'm biasd towards thte 6 and 12z, time after time. are they using sunlight and heating to make these assumptions?

[BCF4L]

Latest 12Z says, Hello snow shovels!!

[Image: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/...p_228l.gif]

[ronald_reagan]

18z not looking to promising...

[ronald_reagan]

New 0z GFS for ya BCF4L... 150-162hr, nice storm brewing in the south.. this looks much more promising than the earlier runs from 4-5 days ago. The 0z Ensemble looks great as well.

[Image: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/...p_150m.gif]
[Image: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/...p_156m.gif]
[Image: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/...p_162m.gif]

Any thoughts on this? Still dealing with the GFS I know. Lets see if 06, 12z confirm this model's suspicions. 0z Ensemble looks good. Plenty of moisture. Looks like a storm on a stalled out front from the best I can tell.