[EKUAlum05]

At this point who beat who doesn't mean a hill of beans. Comparing scores gets you no where, it all comes down to match-ups.

The fact of the matter is this:

Breathitt has not faced a team like Belfry in terms of their physicality, their discipline, their depth, and their shear size.

Belfry has not faced a team like Breathitt in terms of their balance, their skill, and their aggressiveness.

I think Belfry has a definite advantage at the LOS, I think Breathitt has a definite advantage in the overall skill positions (I know fellow Pirate fans will be angry with that, but I am just calling it like I see it). Breathitt's homefield advantage IMO is negated with Belfry's slight advantage in experience. Both teams are still one year away from their best ball, but Belfry's players played on a much larger level last year and have played in much higher profile games thusfar.

As you can tell, I view this as an even match-up. Here are three keys to the game for each team:

BELFRY

1. TACKLE! Breathitt has a quality passing attack, but the crux of their offensive attack revolves around their running game and their ability to force you to play run first. Trent and Collins aren't going to kill you with speed, they will kill you with their size and effort. Belfry has a very, very good run defense in terms of getting to the ball. Where they have ended up in trouble is when they miss tackles (see Johnson Central and Lou. Central last year). The Pirates have got to make the play on initial contact because both Breathitt running threats have the capability of housing it if they get through the first hit.

The zone read series that Breathitt uses has an advantage in that it spreads defenses out and creates running lanes. The drawback is that it can susceptible to losses of yardage and 3rd and Longs. You put Breathitt in 3rd and Long situations and the passing game becomes very predictable...you put them in 3rd and Short and they march up and down at will.


2. Johnson and Williams- I fully expect Breathitt to be geared to do two things: Stuff the fullback and take away the lateral offense (option pitch and sweeps). Tyler Williams is a very underrated runner and if two parts of the triple option are eliminated it leaves it on his shoulders to make the play. The other thing this opens is opportunities for the second man through the hole on Iso and Counters. Breathitt's quickness means that if plays are too slow to develop they will be able to shift and stuff them, so Justin Johnson is a huge factor. He is the quickest Belfry back and hits the hole the hardest. There will be potential for the big play, and Johnson is the man who can make it happen.

3. Dixon and Thacker- The first thing I think of with Breathitt over the years is that their defense is always undersized, but they will flat hit you. Dixon and Thacker need to do their own laying of the wood. Breathitt's receivers aren't the most physical breed and their passing game is almost exclusively a mix of the deep ball on go routes and crossing routes. If Thacker and Dixon can become a physical presence across the middle on those crossing patterns you could see some alligator arms develop.








BREATHITT

1. DICTATE THE PACE- If this is a low scoring, close game where Belfry has 13 play drives then the Bobcats are in trouble. Depth, specifically on the LOS is by far Belfry's biggest strength and possibly the biggest advantage either team has in the game. Breathitt needs this game at their pace. They need some 3 and Out's... they need scoring drives of about 6-7 plays where Belfry is on their heels, and they need Belfry to stop the clock by having to throw the ball.

2. WIN THE SPECIAL TEAMS BATTLE- I have read all year how Breathitt's special teams are a point of concern, Belfry's may be even worse. Belfry has consistently missed XP's, made poor decisions in fielding punts,and given up long returns that were only saved by Josh Dixon's sure tackling. Field position will be huge and a missed XP may be the difference in the game. If Breathitt can consistently force Belfry to drive 80 yards while the Bobcats only have to drive 60, it could potentially be enough to help them to victory.

3. BE PATIENT- Belfry will give up yards to Breathitt and the matchup's the Bobcats create should put them in position to be able to move it fairly consistently. The key here is to take what Belfry gives and not get greedy. Turnovers are important in every game, but against Belfry turnovers are fatal. The deep ball is a low percentage/high risk play. The very last thing Breathitt can afford to do is have quick change posessions where their defense has to come back on the field to face the Belfry grind with limited rest.

Breathitt needs to hit the short stuff and move the chains and have very calculated shots down the field only when they know it will be 1 on 1 with no safety. When running Breathitt needs to get North and South. Reversing field or stringing runs out could doom them with Belfry's pursuit and discipline.