[AtlPirateFan]

I expect this to be a darn good, hard-fought ball game. The Bucs could definitely find their season ends without a 3rd straight regional (or whatever they want to call it now) win. The all-time record might be 3-18 in favor of Ashland, the Kittys may have a 4-1 playoff record against Belfry. Come Friday night none of that matters.

All of the talk has been about Ashlands big play, playmakers on offense and Belfry hydra rushing attack that can strike from anywhere on the field. I think it really comes down to special teams (For all the reasons EKU posted above) and more importantly the defenses.

Observations:
Ashland
- Might have the home run backfield but their balance is most dangerous. Pikeville came back on Belfry with balance and confusion. Using the run game in a mix with intermediate passing game hurt Belfry.
- Defense has held all but two opponents to less than 2 touchdowns.
- QB Jake Gregg may be the deciding factor. He is not a mobile QB so he will need the accuracy he has shown all season.
- The first Russel game and Spring Valley show Ashland struggles with Run Heavy, Russell didn't try to run as much in the second game and the score showed.

Belfry
- Belfry's offensive style should negate the QB pressure Ashland has shown
- Belfry has handled speed well this year, Ashland is nowhere near as big as JC.
- Belfry has thrown very little this year, but a completion currently is about 50% chance of being a TD. Mixing in one or two is likely to happen.
- Isaiah Birchfield is lurking in the secondary hoping for Gregg to throw . with 4 ints and 2 returned for TD he's a danger to a throwing team.
- A balanced team with a decent intermediate passing game is Belfry's kryptonite on defense. If they get you throwing deep or some negative yardage run plays they have you where they want you.
- Peyton Hensley has to have a good game from the FB spot. So that Bentley and Dixon can do their work.

Final thoughts
This one can go either way. I don't see either team winning by more than 10. A blowout in either direction would really surprise me.

BHS Fan Prediction
Belfry 26
Ashland 21

Without my homer hat on as a complete pessimist based on superstitions that make no sense prediction
Ashland 29
Belfry 26
In OT