[Old School Hound]

Lots of great, great news for Democrats and our country released today:

More Than Half of U.S. Votes Likely Cast Before Election Day
Voter enthusiasm is high, with Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans

Dems 10% more excited to pull the lever for Harris than Republicans for Harris or Trump.

Too, a Fox News poll seemingly insists the election is close. HOWEVER, if you drill down to the actual assumptions they make of the voting electorate, they're showing:

- one in four non-whites who voted in NC in 2020 to not vote in 2024. If POC vote in the same numbers they did in 2020, Harris is up +8.
- white people in NC to prefer Trump 60-40. In 2020, they preferred Trump 66-33. If that's the case (and they vote in the same percentage), Harris would be +10(!)
- Fox News' poll assumed an 80-20 POC split in NC in order to get to a relatively even split of votes. That hasn't happened since Black people were refused the right to vote.

- In PA, they have white people voting at 86% of the total PA population. That's five percent more than in 2020.
- They also showed 20% of Blacks favoring Trump. The last time that Blacks favored Republicans in a national election by that much? Suffice to say, it's been a long, long time. (1972, at least.)

Also, Politico's examination of PA's votes so far indicate that a third of all votes came from Democratic women who did not vote in 2020.




Also, Professor Lichtman, the guy who is uncanny at picking the winners of Presidential elections based on his 13 keys, a model that has picked winners dating back to 1860, is confident in a Harris win.  

It's looking damn good, folks!