[Cactus Jack]

In the SEC, I'll reiterate that it's going to be tough for the committee to seed everyone according to their rules (i.e., no conference versus conference in the first round, etc.). That gets even tougher if there are upsets and they're trying to come up with a bracket while the SEC Championship game is in progress. Because of all of this, I think we'll see at least one, but maybe two SEC teams playing in the First Four.

Arkansas helped themselves out with a win. They'll get a chance to pad their record with a revenge game against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament opener, with the winner meeting #8 Ole Miss in the next game. Arkansas matches up well with Ole Miss, at least from a physical standpoint and in that Beard's no middle could lead to a lot of open shots for Nelly Davis and Ivisic.

Texas' home loss to Oklahoma kept the Sooners' hopes alive, but it might have also knocked both them and Longhorns out of the tournament as well. Texas was seen as being in a better spot going in, and they could still get in with a win over Vanderbilt and decent showing against Texas A&M in the next round, but they probably need to win both to be a lock. Oklahoma gets Georgia, and the winner of that one is probably going to be locked in but the loser (or both if Oklahoma loses to Kentucky) will be sweating on Selection Sunday.

Mississippi State lost a close one to Arkansas but gets LSU in the opener. Win that and it's on to Missouri, which is a good match-up for them. Both will try to score a ton and each are in a spot where they could afford a loss to one another. Either would go into a quarterfinal against Florida with nothing to lose.

There's one bracket with four teams that are projected in the field right now and it plays out like this: Texas vs. Vanderbilt winner vs. Texas A&M, and the winner of that game plays Tennessee. One of those four teams HAS to get to the semi and none of them would be hurt by a loss to Auburn in the semi; given, one of those four is really going to help their seed line, while the rest are going to hurt their seed line and/or chances of getting in.

Kentucky probably doesn't drop below the 4-line with a narrow loss to either Oklahoma or Georgia. A Cats win in the opener and a decent showing against Alabama locks in a 3 seed. Even if Kentucky wins the whole thing, I don't think they go higher than a #3, so we're probably playing for geographic preference, tradition, and pride past the first game.

I guess there's a chance that UK gets to the #2 line IF they beat Georgia/Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, and Auburn in four straight, but they'd probably also need Tennessee to lose badly in their opener & hope that this was enough to get the committee to come to their senses about a not-as-good as everyone thinks Vols squad.

Auburn is locked into a #1 seed. At least one other SEC team should get a #1 seed (probably the Alabama/Florida winner). The SEC will get at least 1 other #2 seed (the Alabama/Florida loser) and possibly a second (likely Tennessee). Kentucky and Texas A&M look like #3 seeds. That means that the SEC has 6 of the top 12 overall teams and there has to be a spot for the (regular and/or post-season) champions of the Big XII, Big Ten, Big East, and ACC in there as well-- Houston and Duke are going to be no lower than 2 seeds regardless of what happens and St. John's won't be lower than a 3.


As for bid thieves--

Drake took care of business in the MVC Tournament. That's one less bid thief out there, as they were going to be in even if they lost their conference championship game.

Keep an eye on UC San Diego is probably in regardless, so keep an eye on the Big West Tournament. Same for VCU in the Atlantic 10 (which has Dayton on the Bubble).

St. Mary's or Gonzaga winning their conference tournament keeps another bid thief at bay. Same for any upsets in the Mountain West, which is expected to get three bids.