[ronald_reagan]

Of course Prestonsburg ended up with a wintry mix/rain during this event. A couple days ago the NAM and GFS had the center of low pressure tracking further and further south giving Eastern and Central KY a decent shot of getting at least some snow, but the closer it got, the models started shifting back North. Just like the heavy rain event we got last Sunday. Between 204 and 300 hours on the GFS, it showed a nice snowstorm for KY. It had the low tracking just south of the Bluegrass, turning up the East Coast, and having a secondary low form just off the Atlantic Coast. That is a prime time snowstorm for this area, but around the 156 hour of the GFS, it started taking the low way to the North and made it a Lakes Cutter. And sure enough, it ended up pushing warm air into the state, and leaving us with nothing but rain. The problem with the GFS is that you can't trust it no more than 2-3 days out. I've noticed this year, the European and Canadian models have been more accurate than the NAM and GFS. I think the only shot we will have at a snowstorm is if the GFS is showing a low tracking somewhere around the panhandle of Florida at around 300 hours. Maybe with the Northern trend these models take, the Low may track into northern GA, or southern TN. Maybe we could stay away from the WAA and keep it all snow. Who knows. We are like a snow dome though, I do know that for sure.

I agreeee!!!!

These models are ridiculous anymore. I've began relying on the Canadian lately, not so much the European though (its relatively new, and has some kinks to work out i think). But the GFS is by far my favorite. But it always tracks TOO far south and gets my hopes up. I've learned to give the GFS whatever it shows, plus about about a mile PER hour into the future it shows it. So for every hour 156, 240, etc... I would add a mile worth of north tracking lol

The NAM seems to not be able to deal with cold air, or gulf moisture.

You would think that a new model would be able to address all of these issues.