[BCF4L]

I agreeee!!!!

These models are ridiculous anymore. I've began relying on the Canadian lately, not so much the European though (its relatively new, and has some kinks to work out i think). But the GFS is by far my favorite. But it always tracks TOO far south and gets my hopes up. I've learned to give the GFS whatever it shows, plus about about a mile PER hour into the future it shows it. So for every hour 156, 240, etc... I would add a mile worth of north tracking lol

The NAM seems to not be able to deal with cold air, or gulf moisture.

You would think that a new model would be able to address all of these issues.

They did some changes to the European model and it did make it worse. The Euro was probably the more reliable at one time, but now seems to be fading a bit. I still trust it more than I do the GFS beyond 3 days. If that storm for the 17th of this month verified, people around here would be very excited. A general 8-12 inch snowfall would occur from south central KY into Eastern KY. Central Virginia would get upwards of 2 feet. But the 18Z GFS had this same storm tracking into Michigan. So it's definitely too far away to pinpoint anything, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. The 12Z GFS also shows snow showers sticking around until the 20th of December which could keep a good snowpack around here for Christmas. It would be nice to have a white Christmas for a chage.