[ronald_reagan]

They did some changes to the European model and it did make it worse. The Euro was probably the more reliable at one time, but now seems to be fading a bit. I still trust it more than I do the GFS beyond 3 days. If that storm for the 17th of this month verified, people around here would be very excited. A general 8-12 inch snowfall would occur from south central KY into Eastern KY. Central Virginia would get upwards of 2 feet. But the 18Z GFS had this same storm tracking into Michigan. So it's definitely too far away to pinpoint anything, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on. The 12Z GFS also shows snow showers sticking around until the 20th of December which could keep a good snowpack around here for Christmas. It would be nice to have a white Christmas for a chage.

we've got the 0z, 6z, and 12z all showing an extreme southern track on the GFS with much more cold air than the 18z and its northern track through chicago.

whats your impression on the speed these systems are moving? the upper level blasts of energy in the jet stream, and the vortex itself sitting in canada.... i just have a feeling its wanting to make a visit sometime in late december early january....

i'm convinced this is a year to remember.