[ronald_reagan]

Well by looking at the new 12Z run of the GFS, the center of low pressure has moved from central GA (6Z @ hr. 288 run) to eastern Arkansas (12Z @ hr. 276). So, basically the storm has slowed considerably. I haven't really sat down and studied the past few runs, just kinda glanced at them. On the latest run, you have high pressure in place in extreme Southern Canada, close to Northern New York, which is pretty well right where you want it to be. The thing is, around the 17th, you notice we are going back to a negative nao which is a plus. I'd like to say that the 6Z is correct, but unfortunately, it being 2 weeks away, and the snow deprivation here, I'd say it will end up trending north and we end up getting rain. Hopefully, I'm wrong. I'm definitely keeping an eye on this though.

The H in S Canada sounds great to supress the nothern movenment and usher in some cold air. I've not got to look at the runs as of yet. But since you've already gave me a pretty good idea what to expect, I'll just wait till the some later runs to to take a peak.

What does the 500mb look like? I noticed earlier that 36 hour precip on the 850mb was showing over .75" for much of KY (assuming 10:1, we could see a legit 6-10 across the state). Not for sure what run I was looking at now though...

I can't believe i'm even talkin about this... 276hr

i'm just excited this year.

I'll update later tonight.