[ronald_reagan]

I'm a little confused because BCF4L seems to think that it won't be as big now, but Chris Bailey's weather blog made it seem like it would be bigger than he expected. A major winter storm.

So what's going on?

Bailey is in a much different situation than bcf4l and I are. His forecasts are based upon several models, over several days. I think what BCF4L is saying, and I agree totally, is that this is just one model out of about 4-5 to look at. His point is that models change, and the exact track of this storm is yet to be determined.

Personally, I believe the latest model to be a fluke. There's a few reasons.. I strongly believe a coastal low will develop, and this lastest track hurts that chance because of the inability to transfer energy. There's also a high pressure building out west that will push it more towards to the east. In about 2-3 hours we'll have a few new models coming out. I'll be making my intitial predictions based on these solutions.