[dbcooper]

My last post was a little lengthy so I make this a mutiple post reply.


You mention that Shephard was throwing in the 86-87 MPH range. I have no idea at all at what velocity he is currently thowing beacuse I have not seen him since the summer. I can however give you the radar reading of his regional tournament outing. In the first inning, Shephard was throwing in the 81-83 MPH range and hit 84 two times. When he was removed in the what I think was the forth inning he had dropped to the 77-80 MPH range. I was really impressed with him, because for an 8th grader I thought he was very impressive. The common talk among people would be, hey the kid pitches 84 MPH and is only an 8th grader. Well, he did hit 84, but his average range was 80-82. Again witnessed him in a summer game at Ashland and he topped out at 83, and by the way was shelled and his team eventaly mercied. Now it is being said that he throws 86-87. This is very similar to the statement that you made saying that the average MLB velocity is 88-90. For a right hander it is somewhat greater. More like the 90-92 range. Again you have to remember that when you reach the major league level , that you are taught to more of a pitcher rather than a thrower, and to sacrifice velocity over location and movement. Keep this in mind, that just about any of the right handers that have a game working speed in the 90-92 MPH range are very capable of unleashing one in the 94-95 MPH range any time they wish. See what I'm getting at. Average game working speed and ability to hit on the gun are entirely different.

Although it is very possible that Shephard is capable of hitting 86-87, it is highly doubtful that he pitches in that range. You state that he is 6'2'', but I am looking at photographs of the 2007 regional tournament All tourney team and he does not look to be as tall as the guy he is standing beside, which is a 6'1'' Matt Fyffe. Perhaps he has grown since then. 14 and 15 year old kids have a tendency to do just that. As far as velocity I have also seen dramatic increases out of know where too. Matt Fyffe is the best example that I can think of. As a junior Matt threw in the 81-83 MPH range and only hit 84 twice the whole high school season. By late July he was clocked at the Junior All Star tryouts at 87. People made comments throughout the 2007 high school season that Matt was a 90 MPH pitcher. Yes Matt could hit 90, which a lot of times it was only on the first pitch of the game. In most cases he pitched in the 83-87 MPH range, and occasionaly would hit 89 during a game. But for that one to two 90MPH pitches that he would throw each game, he became a pitcher of 90MPH lore. He was far from it, when it came to actual game speed.

Just a breif comment on Parker. Parker threw every bit as hard as Shephard during the season, and actually hit 85 more than once. Parker has never had any formal traing at all, and has never particpated at anything more than just showing up for practice or to a game when so mandated. He has very good breaking stuff, and good movement on his fast ball. He is not intimadated by anything, much as Shephard, but the glaring difference in the two, is what goes on between the ears of each. Parker has a tendency to not be able to forget what the last batter might have done, or what he did with his last pitch and reacts accordingly. He is his own worst enemy. His performance on the mound is just as impressive as Shephards when he is in the right frame of mind. Trouble is that is the major problem more times than not... it's not. He is just as green as a guord, BUT he is just a freshman this year as well.

Good post... but...

Shepard is almost a full year older than when you and I viewed him last.

I am well aware that there is a difference between game working speed. Are you aware that there is no pitcher in any significant level of baseball who maintains a velocity of 90-92? Of course you are...
The reason they don't is because every pitch situation is different and if you don't change the pace you'll get hammered.
The reason your argument isn't a closing of this discussion is this: no workout situation for college or pro scouts consists of three pitches and them marking down the best one as your consistent velocity.
In fact, the scout will record your entire range of pitch velocity on everything you throw - fastball, breaking ball and off-speed and grade each pitch and evaluate from there.
There is no doubt in my mind that Parker possesses a live arm -- I've heard too many things from too many sources that he indeed has serious velocity for a freshman.
I am well aware of what a major leaguer can do in both consistent velocity and that two-strike I need it pitch situation and I am in no way saying Shepherd or Parker has that.
I have seen one hurler in this area in the last ten years who had an arm that developed in high school and he had as they termed it in those days "million dollar arm and ten cent head."
He was drafted and did not even come close to The Show.
Even Brandon Webb didn't have the high school arm that kid did.
Thanks for the discussion, Kimball. I like your willingness to give and take.