[More Cowbell]

Here are how UK and Vandy have fared against common opponents this year:

South Carolina = UK loses 24-17, Vandy wins 24-17
Misissippi State = UK wins 14-13, Vandy loses 17-14
Georgia = UK loses 42-38, Vandy loses 24-14
Florida = UK loses 65-3, Vandy loses 42-14

Each has gone 1-3 against their common opponents, so no difference is apparent there. Let's look at their other games, discounting games against lesser schools.

UK = beat Arkansas 21-20, beat Louisville 27-2, lost to Alabama 17-14
Vandy = beat Auburn 14-13, beat Ole Miss 23-17, lost to Duke (!) 10-7

Here is where I see a difference. Each beat a couple of average opponents, but UK played the #1 team to a close loss, while Vandy lost to the perennial powerhouse known as Duke. Advantage UK.

I say that a newly energized UK beats the desperate Commodores, who are in danger of seeing a 5-0 start spiral into a bowl-less season. UK's defense clamps down on Vandy, and the offense does enough to win.

Kentucky 27
Vandy 13