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Class 3A in 2015 thru 2018
#1
Based on the current 2013-2014 school Boy only enrollment reports and if the KHSAA maintains 40 teams in the 3a class, here's what the 3a class may look like in 2015 thru 2018.

1) Desales - 309
2) Morgan Co - 318
3) Jackson Co - 324
4) CAL - 324
5) Russell - 328
6) Bourbon Co - 328
7) Knott Central - 329
8) Belfry - 331
9) Trigg Co -332
10) Lawrence Co - 333
11) Caldwell Co - 333
12) Casey Co - 337
13) Estill Co - 341
14) Henry Co - 344
15) Union Co - 344
16) Fleming Co - 346
17) Breathitt Co - 346
18) Pike Central - 360
19) Ft Campbell - 360
20) Thomas Nelson - 362
21) Garrard Co - 368
22) Powell Co - 372
23) Hart Co - 373
24) Lewis Co - 374
25) Larue Co - 377
26) Boyle Co - 378
27) E'Town - 380
28) Waggoner - 387
29) Tilghman - 395
30) Western Hills - 398
31) Pendleton Co - 399
32) Rockcastle Co - 400
33) Adair Co - 403
34) Ashland - 408
35) Central - 411
36) Lex Catholic - 411
37) Bell Co - 413
38) Breckinridge Co - 417
39) Spencer Co - 418
40) F.Simpson - 418

WOW !!! What a class that'd be with tough teams everywhere. 3A would lose Monroe Co, West Carter, Edmonson Co, Magoffin Co, Sheldon Clark, Bath Co and Webster Co to 2a. They would lose some good teams to 4a, as well, Corbin, S.Warren(5a), Wayne Co and Mason Co. That's 4 teams that were ranked in the Top 10 of 3a all year long in 2013. But, before you cry them a river for there losses, look who they add. From 2a, they'd add Desales, CAL, Caldwell Co, Bardstown, Union Co and Thomas Nelson. Those would be plenty to replace there losses alone, but, that's before you add in the teams that'll be dropping down from 4a. Check these out, F.Simpson, Spencer Co, Breckinridge Co, Lex Catholic, Boyle Co, Ashland, Rockcastle Co, Pendleton Co and Waggoner.

Those are some pretty big additions.

Thoughts?
#2
Love it! Good work
#3
Just looking at the additions, you have Desales, CAL, Caldwell, Bardstown, Boyle Co, Lex Cath, F.Simpson and Ashland all capable of being Top 10 teams and probably would be. But, wait, you still have the traditional 3a powers in Bell Co, Central, Belfry, Tilghman, Bourbon Co and Ft Campbell who may have a say about it. Throw in better than average teams like Union Co, Lawrence Co, Breathitt Co, Pike Central, Trigg Co, Rockcastle Co, Spencer Co, Russell, Garrard Co, Morgan Co, and you've got 20-25 really solid teams in 1 class. 3a would definitely be the cream of the crop when it comes to parity and overall depth.
#4
Should be interesting starting in 2015.
#5
How would the dostricts shake out? NEKY teams Ashland, Morgan, Lewis, and Russell be in the same district? That'd create quite a big spin on the aashoand/Russell series.
#6
Russell and Ashland Blazer have been in the same district before. District game or not it will be a heated rivalry.
#7
Here's my best guess of how I think the districts may shake out. Not 100% sure on some of the locations, so, this could be a little off:

D1 - Trigg Co, Caldwell Co, Ft Campbell, Tilghman, Union Co
D2 - F.Simpson, Breckinridge Co, Adair Co, E'Town, Hart Co
D3 - Desales, Cal, Central, Waggoner, T.Nelson
D4 - Spencer Co, Western Hills, Henry Co, Pendleton Co, Larue Co
D5 - Lex Cath, Bourbon Co, Boyle Co, Garrard Co, Casey Co
D6 - E.Carter, Lewis Co, Fleming Co, Ashland, Russell
D7 - Powell Co, Breathitt Co, Morgan Co, Estill Co, Rockcastle Co
D8 - Bell Co, Jackson Co, Knott Central, Belfry, Pike Central
#8
KYHSFBFan Wrote:Just looking at the additions, you have Desales, CAL, Caldwell, Bardstown, Boyle Co, Lex Cath, F.Simpson and Ashland all capable of being Top 10 teams and probably would be. But, wait, you still have the traditional 3a powers in Bell Co, Central, Belfry, Tilghman, Bourbon Co and Ft Campbell who may have a say about it. Throw in better than average teams like Union Co, Lawrence Co, Breathitt Co, Pike Central, Trigg Co, Rockcastle Co, Spencer Co, Russell, Garrard Co, Morgan Co, and you've got 20-25 really solid teams in 1 class. 3a would definitely be the cream of the crop when it comes to parity and overall depth.

I don't see Bardstown anywhere in the first post, and Bourbon has more males than 328? Mix-up?
#9
Louisville Central?
#10
Morgan County will probably be moved down to 2A, according to their coach.
#11
Thrillex Wrote:I don't see Bardstown anywhere in the first post, and Bourbon has more males than 328? Mix-up?

You're correct. Bourbon Co should be replaced by Bardstown. Read it wrong when I was doing this. Bourbon will be moving up to 4a.
#12
I've been told by several people who know over the last couple of months that Boyle would drop back to 3a and district 5 is about the same as it was when Boyle was in 3a before with the exception of Casey i think.
#13
Bell County would be getting the shaft again... looong district games and the dubious task of drawing Belfry (who is about to be loaded to the gills the next 4 years) inside your district/region.
#14
Alignments are done with a 2 year average.
#15
Line any of them up. The trophy is ours for at least the next 3 years maybe longer.
#16
Belfrey is loaded for the next few years. Got a good crop in the feeder programs as well. Me thinks this decade wilk eventually belong to Haywood and Co.
#17
KYHSFBFan Wrote:Here's my best guess of how I think the districts may shake out. Not 100% sure on some of the locations, so, this could be a little off:

D1 - Trigg Co, Caldwell Co, Ft Campbell, Tilghman, Union Co
D2 - F.Simpson, Breckinridge Co, Adair Co, E'Town, Hart Co
D3 - Desales, Cal, Central, Waggoner, T.Nelson
D4 - Spencer Co, Western Hills, Henry Co, Pendleton Co, Larue Co
D5 - Lex Cath, Bourbon Co, Boyle Co, Garrard Co, Casey Co
D6 - E.Carter, Lewis Co, Fleming Co, Ashland, Russell
D7 - Powell Co, Breathitt Co, Morgan Co, Estill Co, Rockcastle Co
D8 - Bell Co, Jackson Co, Knott Central, Belfry, Pike Central

They won't send Larue to this district. Not with 9 of the 10 schools in Districts 2 and 3 being within an hour or less in travel.

Actually, I think that due to travel, you will see Franklin-Simpson bumped up to 4A, which makes a lot more sense geographically for them.

So, I see Larue going into the district 2 slot (E-town is 10 minutes away, Hart is 30 at most and Adair is 45, with Breck being an hour at the most).

Also…missing ONE team in 3A, and that's Bardstown. Bardstown will be 3A, their two year average enrollment is 321 (2012/2013- 314 & 2013/2014- 328)…so, that alone bumps Franklin-Simpson out of the game.
#18
What about the rest of the classes?
Why 40 in this one?
#19
KYHSFBFan Wrote:Based on the current 2013-2014 school Boy only enrollment reports and if the KHSAA maintains 40 teams in the 3a class, here's what the 3a class may look like in 2015 thru 2018.

1) Desales - 309
2) Morgan Co - 318
3) Jackson Co - 324
4) CAL - 324
5) Russell - 328
6) Bourbon Co - 328
7) Knott Central - 329
8) Belfry - 331
9) Trigg Co -332
10) Lawrence Co - 333
11) Caldwell Co - 333
12) Casey Co - 337
13) Estill Co - 341
14) Henry Co - 344
15) Union Co - 344
16) Fleming Co - 346
17) Breathitt Co - 346
18) Pike Central - 360
19) Ft Campbell - 360
20) Thomas Nelson - 362
21) Garrard Co - 368
22) Powell Co - 372
23) Hart Co - 373
24) Lewis Co - 374
25) Larue Co - 377
26) Boyle Co - 378
27) E'Town - 380
28) Waggoner - 387
29) Tilghman - 395
30) Western Hills - 398
31) Pendleton Co - 399
32) Rockcastle Co - 400
33) Adair Co - 403
34) Ashland - 408
35) Central - 411
36) Lex Catholic - 411
37) Bell Co - 413
38) Breckinridge Co - 417
39) Spencer Co - 418
40) F.Simpson - 418

WOW !!! What a class that'd be with tough teams everywhere. 3A would lose Monroe Co, West Carter, Edmonson Co, Magoffin Co, Sheldon Clark, Bath Co and Webster Co to 2a. They would lose some good teams to 4a, as well, Corbin, S.Warren(5a), Wayne Co and Mason Co. That's 4 teams that were ranked in the Top 10 of 3a all year long in 2013. But, before you cry them a river for there losses, look who they add. From 2a, they'd add Desales, CAL, Caldwell Co, Bardstown, Union Co and Thomas Nelson. Those would be plenty to replace there losses alone, but, that's before you add in the teams that'll be dropping down from 4a. Check these out, F.Simpson, Spencer Co, Breckinridge Co, Lex Catholic, Boyle Co, Ashland, Rockcastle Co, Pendleton Co and Waggoner.

Those are some pretty big additions.

Thoughts?

Great work by the way.
#20
proud44pirate Wrote:Line any of them up. The trophy is ours for at least the next 3 years maybe longer.

I'll bet right now that Belfry doesn't win 4 state championships in a row.
#21
Cardfan1 Wrote:What about the rest of the classes?
Why 40 in this one?

I was just going off the # of teams they currently have in that class.
#22
FBALL Wrote:I'll bet right now that Belfry doesn't win 4 state championships in a row.

And I bet right now if we don't it won't be because Russel stops us...
#23
Where is McCreary Central ???? They are about same size of Bell. They have always been in Dist with Bell and Rockcastle.
#24
There are teams that will be there: central, Boyle and rock has young talent. This will be a good class
#25
Pirate1991#8 Wrote:And I bet right now if we don't it won't be because Russel stops us...

Never said they would.

And it's spelled with 2 L 's

Russell.

And in a couple of years they might.

Take Russell out if it I still bet they don't.

Some of you guys are so sensative.
#26
Wow if this hold true 3A in the east went from being an absolute joke to the best in the state.
#27
Greenup County may be a team moving down to 3a.
#28
FBALL Wrote:I'll bet right now that Belfry doesn't win 4 state championships in a row.

I can kinda agree, but they do have a legit shot at it.
#29
Crossbones Wrote:I can kinda agree, but they do have a legit shot at it.

Like I said in another post. Belfry has been on one hell of a run.
#30
I never seen this thread before I tallied up all of the classes in the thread I made.

Heres the difference.

Its not just off last years enrollment.

It takes the average of 2012/2013 and the 2013/2014 year.

It changes your numbers a little bit.

Heres what the 3A class would look like if they actually made everybody play where there suppose to...

Desales 312.5 2A Last Year
Knott County Central 317
Sheldon Clark 317.5
Thomas Nelson 318
Christian Academy Lville 318 2A Last Year
Bardstown 318 2A Last Year
Morgan County 321.5
Caldwell County 321.5 2A Last Year
Lawrence County 324
Trigg County 325.5
Jackson County 327
Casey County 330.5
Russell 332.5
Estill County 338
Breathitt County 350
Henry County 351.5
Union County 356 2A Last Year
Fleming County 356
Belfry 362.5
Pike County Central 364
LaRue County 365
Garrard County 367.5
Lewis County 368
Powell County 369.5
McCreary Central 369.5
Fort Campbell 372.5
Hart County 374
Western Hills 382.5
Boyle County 384 4A Last Year
Elizabethtown 388.5
Adair County 390
Waggener 398 4A Last Year
Paducah Tilghman 399.5
Pendleton County 400 4A Last Year
Lexington Catholic 404.5 4A Last Year
Bell County 406.5
Rockcastle County 409.5 4A Last Year
Corbin 413
Central 415

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