[RunItUpTheGut]

Notice how Corbin snuck in there at the end due to the 2 year average. Franklin Simpson was higher than Corbin over two years.

Corbin is really flirting with 4A. If they were allowed, and if I were them, its inevitable that they'll be a 4A team in 2019 in the next alignment, so I would go ahead and try to move up to get in that Knox/Clay/Russell/Rock district.

Only thing is, Rock also moved down to 3A from 4A according to the numbers.

One thing is for sure, there should be significant movement this time around.

[KYHSFBFan]

I never seen this thread before I tallied up all of the classes in the thread I made.

Heres the difference.

Its not just off last years enrollment.

It takes the average of 2012/2013 and the 2013/2014 year.

It changes your numbers a little bit.

Heres what the 3A class would look like if they actually made everybody play where there suppose to...

Desales 312.5 2A Last Year
Knott County Central 317
Sheldon Clark 317.5
Thomas Nelson 318
Christian Academy Lville 318 2A Last Year
Bardstown 318 2A Last Year
Morgan County 321.5
Caldwell County 321.5 2A Last Year
Lawrence County 324
Trigg County 325.5
Jackson County 327
Casey County 330.5
Russell 332.5
Estill County 338
Breathitt County 350
Henry County 351.5
Union County 356 2A Last Year
Fleming County 356
Belfry 362.5
Pike County Central 364
LaRue County 365
Garrard County 367.5
Lewis County 368
Powell County 369.5
McCreary Central 369.5
Fort Campbell 372.5
Hart County 374
Western Hills 382.5
Boyle County 384 4A Last Year
Elizabethtown 388.5
Adair County 390
Waggener 398 4A Last Year
Paducah Tilghman 399.5
Pendleton County 400 4A Last Year
Mercer County 404 4A Last Year
Lexington Catholic 404.5 4A Last Year
Bell County 406.5
Rockcastle County 409.5 4A Last Year
Corbin 413

I realize it's a 2 year average. The reason I just used 13-14 enrollment numbers is because the 12-13 numbers won't apply by the time this takes effect in 2015. It'll be the 13-14 and 14-15 numbers, so, figured the latest numbers would likely give you your closest results. Sure, things will change a little, but, this is just a best guess. If the KHSAA keeps 1a and 6a at 32 teams, that would leave 38 teams per class, so, they could split it equally amongst the other 4 classes. I also didn't include teams that play football but opt out of district and playoff play.

[adopted purple]

Either way, 3A will be a beast.

[RunItUpTheGut]

I realize it's a 2 year average. The reason I just used 13-14 enrollment numbers is because the 12-13 numbers won't apply by the time this takes effect in 2015. It'll be the 13-14 and 14-15 numbers, so, figured the latest numbers would likely give you your closest results. Sure, things will change a little, but, this is just a best guess. If the KHSAA keeps 1a and 6a at 32 teams, that would leave 38 teams per class, so, they could split it equally amongst the other 4 classes. I also didn't include teams that play football but opt out of district and playoff play.

That just it though.
The KHSAA will use the 12-13/13-14 numbers that we already have.
They wont use the 14/15 numbers for the 2015 alignment.

Atleast they didn't do it that way the last time.
During the last alignment, they did it exactly as I have it.

[cksportsfan]

KYHSFBFan,

The new alignment starts discussion THIS month (January 2014). Will be finalized by APRIL 2014.

Thus, the 2014-15 enrollment numbers are NOT APPLICABLE since the alignment will be done BEFORE the 2014-15 school year ever starts. No school would even have them available, let alone EVERY football-playing school statewide. Estimated 14-15 numbers would be available, but as we all know, there's NO way every school's estimated numbers will match their actual numbers.

Per the minutes of the last KHSAA Board of control meeting:
http://portal.ksba.org/public/Meeting.as...cyTypeID=1

5.7.11. On Deck-2013-2014
Rationale:
January
Tennis Alignment Changes
Track and Field Site Specifications
Soccer Site Specifications
Review Report of Football Enrollment Options
Discuss draft football alignment of teams for 2015-2018 seasons for possible distribution
Results of survey on season limits
Approve Distribution of Proposal Specifications, Girls Fastpitch Softball
Consider Proposal Specifications, Girls State Basketball
Discuss philosophical statement on alignments
Best practices document for entry fees for regions and districts

April
Adopt football alignment of teams for the 2015-2018 seasons
Election of 2014-2015 officers

May
Possible consideration of Girls State Basketball Site, 2016 and beyond
Possible consideration of State Softball Site (or July, 2014)

[RunItUpTheGut]

^
Yea, that's just what I said before you posted.


The numbers I have posted are from the 12/13 and 13/14 schools year.
That is what the KHSAA will use to determine the alignment THIS year.

[EKUAlum05]

Using RIUTG's 39 teams here is what I come up with...
District 1: Tilghman, Ft. Campbell, Union County, Caldwell County, Trigg County
District 2: Hart Co, Larue Co, Thomas Nelson, Bardstown, Etown
District 3: DeSales, CAL, Waggener, Henry County, Pendleton County
District 4: Adair County, McCreary Central, Casey County, Rockcastle Co, Corbin
District 5: Boyle Co, Garrard Co, LexCath, Mercer Co, Western Hills
District 6: Russell, Lewis County, Fleming Co, Powell Co, Lawrence Co
District 7: Morgan Co, Breathitt Co, Jackson Co, Knott Cen, Estill Co
District 8: Belfry, Pike Central, Sheldon Clark, Bell County

These teams are the variables that would cause everything to rotate from a geographical standpoint:

Bell County- The single greatest of all... not only do they struggle to have geographically close teams... they are right on the border of East/West and by far the most powerful team without a set geographical distinction.

Lawrence County- Though their original district remains in tact, the NE KY District now needs a 5th team and it is far more convenient for LC to join that district than potentially having to travel to Bell County

Pendleton County- No other "NKY" team to speak of.. do you put them with the NEKY District or the Louisville District? Will they even compete for a district?

This alignment would be the story of the "Have's and the Have Not's". Districts 1, 3, 5, and 8 would be incredibly loaded.
The remaining 4 districts would border on being very weak.

I would argue in most years 12 or 13 of your top 15 3A teams would come from 4 districts.

[Lone Ranger]

Looking at the grids on the KHSAA website, Mercer's boy enrollment for 12/13 was 465 and for 13/14 is 466. No way they are 3A with 465.5 avg.
Quite honestly, I find it very surprising that the numbers reported for Boyle and Lex Cath are as low as they are. Boyle at 384 and Lex Cath at 406.5 for 2 year averages.

[64SUR]

Just wondering does home schooling count...I guess maybe a dumb :moon: question. :pondering:

[Lone Ranger]

Just wondering does home schooling count...I guess maybe a dumb :moon: question. :pondering:

It seems like an excellent question. According to the grids on the KHSAA Website under Enrollment Reports, there is not a specific column for Home School students. However there is an additional column that does count on boys and that seems to be alternate placement. In other words. It looks like any boy 9-12 that receives educational services from that particular school counts toward the numbers. Home School would not as they do not receive services from the school and are not allowed to participate for the school.

[RunItUpTheGut]

Using RIUTG's 39 teams here is what I come up with...
District 1: Tilghman, Ft. Campbell, Union County, Caldwell County, Trigg County
District 2: Hart Co, Larue Co, Thomas Nelson, Bardstown, Etown
District 3: DeSales, CAL, Waggener, Henry County, Pendleton County
District 4: Adair County, McCreary Central, Casey County, Rockcastle Co, Corbin
District 5: Boyle Co, Garrard Co, LexCath, Mercer Co, Western Hills
District 6: Russell, Lewis County, Fleming Co, Powell Co, Lawrence Co
District 7: Morgan Co, Breathitt Co, Jackson Co, Knott Cen, Estill Co
District 8: Belfry, Pike Central, Sheldon Clark, Bell County

These teams are the variables that would cause everything to rotate from a geographical standpoint:

Bell County- The single greatest of all... not only do they struggle to have geographically close teams... they are right on the border of East/West and by far the most powerful team without a set geographical distinction.

Lawrence County- Though their original district remains in tact, the NE KY District now needs a 5th team and it is far more convenient for LC to join that district than potentially having to travel to Bell County

Pendleton County- No other "NKY" team to speak of.. do you put them with the NEKY District or the Louisville District? Will they even compete for a district?

This alignment would be the story of the "Have's and the Have Not's". Districts 1, 3, 5, and 8 would be incredibly loaded.
The remaining 4 districts would border on being very weak.

I would argue in most years 12 or 13 of your top 15 3A teams would come from 4 districts.

Its really hard to figure out those teams that are no where close to another district. I would thin Bell would have a better shot getting stuck in your district 4, while one of those teams move to district 3.
Then, I would have to take a team out of your district 7 and add it to district 8.

Don't forget though, I just remembered that Pendleton County gave up there district status a couple of years ago.
They may not even have to be slotted to a district!


Also, sorry for the screw up, but Mercer County is 4A. Central is still 3A. The numbers were screwed up.

You need to take Mercer out and slot Central somewhere.

[RunItUpTheGut]

Looking at the grids on the KHSAA website, Mercer's boy enrollment for 12/13 was 465 and for 13/14 is 466. No way they are 3A with 465.5 avg.
Quite honestly, I find it very surprising that the numbers reported for Boyle and Lex Cath are as low as they are. Boyle at 384 and Lex Cath at 406.5 for 2 year averages.

That was a screw up on my part.
I copy and pasted this.
Wasn't my fault :biggrin:

This moves Central back into 3A as the largest school and Mercer is about middle of the road in 4A.

[Strikeout King]

Estill and Powell will more than likely remain in the same district. Same class, too close to each other not to be in the same district.

[EKUAlum05]

My Revised Attempts Moving Mercer out and Central in

Option 1

District 1: Tilghman, Ft. Campbell, Union County, Caldwell County, Trigg County
District 2: Hart Co, Larue Co, Thomas Nelson, Bardstown, Etown
District 3: DeSales, CAL, Waggener, Henry County, Central
District 4: Adair County, McCreary Central, Casey County, Rockcastle Co, Corbin
District 5: Boyle Co, Garrard Co, LexCath, , Western Hills
District 6: Russell, Lewis County, Fleming Co, Pendleton Co, Lawrence Co
District 7: Morgan Co, Breathitt Co, Jackson Co, Estill Co, Powell Co
District 8: Belfry, Pike Central, Sheldon Clark, Bell County, Knott Central

Option 2...let's consider that Pendleton County and McCreary Central each opt not to play a District Schedule... thus moving Franklin-Simpson and Breckenridge County to 3A. This one gets controversial as the geography stretches, but I think it would ultimately work out the best

District 1: Tilghman, Ft. Campbell, Union County, Caldwell County, Trigg County
District 2: Franklin-Simpson, Adair County, Casey County, Hart County
District 3 : Thomas Nelson, Bardstown, Etown, Larue County, Breckenridge County
District 4: DeSales, CAL, Waggener, Henry County, Central
District 5: Boyle County, LexCath, Garrard County, Estill County, Western Hills
District 6: Corbin, Bell County, Rockcastle County, Jackson County, Breathitt County
District 7: Fleming County, Russell, Lewis County, Lawrence County, Powell County
District 8: Belfry, Knott Central, Pike Central, Morgan County, Sheldon Clark

[Roundabout]

Wouldn’t it be geographically closer if Knott was placed with Powell, Estill, Morgan and Breathitt? And why would the KHSAA scramble the district from what they had last year minus Magoffin? What is your reasoning for selecting Belfry, Bell and Pike Central? Finally, could Knott fall into 2A since their enrollment is boarder line?

[EKUAlum05]

Double Post

[EKUAlum05]

Wouldn’t it be geographically closer if Knott was placed with Powell, Estill, Morgan and Breathitt? And why would the KHSAA scramble the district from what they had last year minus Magoffin? What is your reasoning for selecting Belfry, Bell and Pike Central? Finally, could Knott fall into 2A since their enrollment is boarder line?

Knott cannot move down to 2A.. that is no longer allowed and even in the past teams could never "play down" only up. The only way Knott plays in 2A is if enough teams in 1A or 2A opt to not compete for a District Title thus allowing the Patriots to fall into the class.

The KHSAA would scramble the district because other districts have to be scrambled and right now the geographical issues lie with the Western Semi-State not having enough "Western" teams..and the Eastern Semi-State having too many "Far Eastern teams".

Bell County right now is the problem child. With the new alignment you can't force them into the West with the influx of teams from Louisville and the Bardstown/Etown area. There is no longer the Southern KY teams that you can "make it work" so you have to find a way to push them into the East and with it you have to bring teams closer to them to form a district.

It may have been closer for Knott in their old district if they could stay in place, but by doing so it would essentially force other districts to travel substantially further.

[mr bojangles 007]

belfry does not win four states titles in a row hell they will not win it next year also remember some of the kids that will play now lost to a pike county team in there eighth grade year .so we will see and the new rule for holdbacks may hurt belfry too.but one good thing the seniors that won state this year no holdbacks sani warren came late eight grade year so he had to stay other than that no holdbacks now belfry full of them and one of the freshman this year not name no one should had been a junior.i think pike central takes the district this year:devilflam

[Strikeout King]

I hope and Pray Estill doesn't get put in the same district with Lex Cath and Boyle...

[EKUAlum05]

I hope and Pray Estill doesn't get put in the same district with Lex Cath and Boyle...

It wouldnt surprise me...

Unless Garrard is purposely joined with Casey County and forced into the West... it appears Garrard makes the 3rd team in the triumverant.

Western Hills floating around needing a home could be your saving grace.. looks like they either have to be forced in with those teams or otherwise forced into the Etown/Bardstown crew.

I still could see possibilities where the two teams get split up as well. The perfect district for that CKY grouping would be Boyle/LexCath/Garrard/Western Hills/Rockcastle.... but it will be tough to make that happen without creating major distance issues for others

[cksportsfan]

How about this:

District 1: Caldwell County, Ft. Campbell, Tilghman, Trigg County, Union County,
District 2: ADAIR COUNTY, Bardstown, Etown, Hart Co, Larue Co, Thomas Nelson (SIX SCHOOLS, BUT ALL SIX ARE 5TH REGION RIVALS IN BASEBALL-BASKETBALL-SOFTBALL-VOLLEYBALL)
District 3: Christian Academy-Louisville, CENTRAL, DeSales, Henry County, Waggener,
District 4: Boyle Co, Garrard Co, LexCath, PENDLETON COUNTY, Western Hills (ASSUMING PENDLETON WANTS TO COMPETE FOR A DISTRICT TITLE AND CAN'T PLAY UP)
District 5: Casey County, Corbin, McCreary Central, Rockcastle Co,
District 6: Fleming Co, Jackson Co, Lawrence Co, Lewis County, Russell
District 7: Breathitt Co, Estill Co, Powell Co, Knott Cen, Morgan Co
District 8: Bell County, Belfry, Pike Central, Sheldon Clark,

Notice I moved Boyle's district (now 4 instead of 5) to the west and the Corbin district (now 5 instead of 4) to the East.

After watching LaRue and E'town go all the way to Bell for first- and second-round games when they were D3 and Bell was D4, it made little sense. It made fewer sense when Bell had to go to Paducah for the semis.

Thus, let's just avoid it.

[Fly Like a Duck]

Or this..

District 1: Sames as above
District 2: E-town, Barsdstown, Thomas Nelson, Hart, Adair (all are 5th region schools as is)
District 3:Waggener, DeSales, CAL, Central, Henry
District 4: LexCath, Boyle, Garrard, Casey, Western Hills
District 5: Fleming, Lewis, Pendleton, Estill, Powell
District 6: Russell, Lawrence, Sheldon Clark, Morgan
District 7: Pike Central, Belfry, Knott Co Central, Breathitt
District 8: Bell, Corbin, Rock, McCreary Central, Jackson Co

[EKUAlum05]

Or this..

District 1: Sames as above
District 2: E-town, Barsdstown, Thomas Nelson, Hart, Adair (all are 5th region schools as is)
District 3:Waggener, DeSales, CAL, Central, Henry
District 4: LexCath, Boyle, Garrard, Casey, Western Hills
District 5: Fleming, Lewis, Pendleton, Estill, Powell
District 6: Russell, Lawrence, Sheldon Clark, Morgan
District 7: Pike Central, Belfry, Knott Co Central, Breathitt
District 8: Bell, Corbin, Rock, McCreary Central, Jackson Co

I like that one a lot as long as noone opts out to forego competing in the district.

District 5 would be painfully weak though

[Fly Like a Duck]

I like that one a lot as long as noone opts out to forego competing in the district.

District 5 would be painfully weak though

Add LaRue to District 2

[Strikeout King]

How about this:

District 1: Caldwell County, Ft. Campbell, Tilghman, Trigg County, Union County,
District 2: ADAIR COUNTY, Bardstown, Etown, Hart Co, Larue Co, Thomas Nelson (SIX SCHOOLS, BUT ALL SIX ARE 5TH REGION RIVALS IN BASEBALL-BASKETBALL-SOFTBALL-VOLLEYBALL)
District 3: Christian Academy-Louisville, CENTRAL, DeSales, Henry County, Waggener,
District 4: Boyle Co, Garrard Co, LexCath, PENDLETON COUNTY, Western Hills (ASSUMING PENDLETON WANTS TO COMPETE FOR A DISTRICT TITLE AND CAN'T PLAY UP)
District 5: Casey County, Corbin, McCreary Central, Rockcastle Co,
District 6: Fleming Co, Jackson Co, Lawrence Co, Lewis County, Russell
District 7: Breathitt Co, Estill Co, Powell Co, Knott Cen, Morgan Co
District 8: Bell County, Belfry, Pike Central, Sheldon Clark,

Notice I moved Boyle's district (now 4 instead of 5) to the west and the Corbin district (now 5 instead of 4) to the East.

After watching LaRue and E'town go all the way to Bell for first- and second-round games when they were D3 and Bell was D4, it made little sense. It made fewer sense when Bell had to go to Paducah for the semis.

Thus, let's just avoid it.

Or this..

District 1: Sames as above
District 2: E-town, Barsdstown, Thomas Nelson, Hart, Adair (all are 5th region schools as is)
District 3:Waggener, DeSales, CAL, Central, Henry
District 4: LexCath, Boyle, Garrard, Casey, Western Hills
District 5: Fleming, Lewis, Pendleton, Estill, Powell
District 6: Russell, Lawrence, Sheldon Clark, Morgan
District 7: Pike Central, Belfry, Knott Co Central, Breathitt
District 8: Bell, Corbin, Rock, McCreary Central, Jackson Co

Those would work for me. Morgan County will likely drop to 2A.

[Fly Like a Duck]

Those would work for me. Morgan County will likely drop to 2A.

Morgan is 3A. 318 and 325 comes to be 321.5

The 2A cutoff will likely be Bath County at 311.5. They would be the 40th school in 2A.

Why is 40 important? 221 football playing schools. 1A and 6A will have their 32. That means 2A-5A will have one with 40 and 3 others with 39, so Im just giving 2A the 40.

[Strikeout King]

Morgan is 3A. 318 and 325 comes to be 321.5

The 2A cutoff will likely be Bath County at 311.5. They would be the 40th school in 2A.

Why is 40 important? 221 football playing schools. 1A and 6A will have their 32. That means 2A-5A will have one with 40 and 3 others with 39, so Im just giving 2A the 40.

Morgan County's head football coach expects Morgan County to drop down to 2A..

[KYHSFBFan]

Morgan's coach may wish for a drop to 2a, but, if the numbers are already out there for the next alighment, it's not happening.

[KyRock]

I can kinda agree, but they do have a legit shot at it.

Uh.............No!!!!!! I look thru the list and I don't even know if Belfry would be in The Top 10.

[Fly Like a Duck]

Morgan County's head football coach expects Morgan County to drop down to 2A..

Aint happening. Unless they only 45-50 teams in 2A, maybe, but I dont see that happening.