[Motley]

Figured this might come up sooner or later, but it might interesting to start a thread to discuss the latest polls and forecasts in a thread including which ones you like to follow along with the latest trends that are sure to come up.


The latest forecast from Nate Silver at 538 isn't too positive for Trump, but will this change in the coming weeks?

Nate Silver @ 538

[Motley]

RealClearPolitics Polls

[catdoggy]

Here comes the "librul medias" chant. Same song and dance every time. Its over and I'm glad.

[Hoot Gibson]

Figured this might come up sooner or later, but it might interesting to start a thread to discuss the latest polls and forecasts in a thread including which ones you like to follow along with the latest trends that are sure to come up.


The latest forecast from Nate Silver at 538 isn't too positive for Trump, but will this change in the coming weeks?

Nate Silver @ 538

You must not have gotten the memo. All polls that have Donald Trump trailing are rigged. It is obvious that Trump is really leading. Just look at the crowds he is drawing to his rallies and the number of Twitter followers and Facebook friends he has.

Just ask TRT and RIUTG to explain Trump math to you. :biglmao:

[TheRealThing]

RealClear only has Clinton up 4 and Rasmussen has her up 2. That's within the margin, how am I doing so far Fermat?

[Hoot Gibson]

RealClear only has Clinton up 4 and Rasmussen has her up 2. That's within the margin, how am I doing so far Fermat?

You are flunking basic statistics and lying again. If I were grading, I would suspend you for a semester for academic fraud.

The RCP average has Clinton up by 5.8 in both a 2-way and a 4-way match-up with Trump. Even if the RCP showed Clinton up by 4, that would not be within the margin of error. If you average multiple polls taken in the same time frame, the confidence level is not the same as it is for the individual margin of error for the individual polls.

Calculating the margin of error for the average of polls precisely is not even possible because the polling methods and questions are never identical - but averaging poll results is the rough equivalent of increasing the size of the sample, which always reduces the margin of error of the individual polls. The MOE of an average of multiple polls is always much smaller than the MOE of a single poll. In other words, the average of 10 polls, each with a margin of error of 4, is not 4. That is just not how statistics work.

Trump is getting trounced in the polls. Cherry picking one or two polls that show results that make you feel warm and fuzzy does not change that fact and neither does misstating the RCP average of poll results.

RIUTG found a poll that shows that Trump is running away with the race. I am surprised that you chose to post the Rasmussen results instead of following his lead. Obviously, if Trump was in a statistical dead heat with Hillary, then she would be the candidate playing musical chairs with her campaign managers instead of Trump.

BTW, RCP has Clinton leading in states having 272 electoral votes to Trump's 154 total. With no toss-up states, RCP has Clinton leading in states having 362 electoral votes.

Real Clear Politics

[TheRealThing]

You are flunking basic statistics and lying again. If I were grading, I would suspend you for a semester for academic fraud.

The RCP average has Clinton up by 5.8 in both a 2-way and a 4-way match-up with Trump. Even if the RCP showed Clinton up by 4, that would not be within the margin of error. If you average multiple polls taken in the same time frame, the confidence level is not the same as it is for the individual margin of error for the individual polls.

Calculating the margin of error for the average of polls precisely is not even possible because the polling methods and questions are never identical - but averaging poll results is the rough equivalent of increasing the size of the sample, which always reduces the margin of error of the individual polls. The MOE of an average of multiple polls is always much smaller than the MOE of a single poll. In other words, the average of 10 polls, each with a margin of error of 4, is not 4. That is just not how statistics work.

Trump is getting trounced in the polls. Cherry picking one or two polls that show results that make you feel warm and fuzzy does not change that fact and neither does misstating the RCP average of poll results.

RIUTG found a poll that shows that Trump is running away with the race. I am surprised that you chose to post the Rasmussen results instead of following his lead. Obviously, if Trump was in a statistical dead heat with Hillary, then she would be the candidate playing musical chairs with her campaign managers instead of Trump.

BTW, RCP has Clinton leading in states having 272 electoral votes to Trump's 154 total. With no toss-up states, RCP has Clinton leading in states having 362 electoral votes.

Real Clear Politics

Whatever. Dick Morris whose opinions you say you respect, has a book out in support of Donald J. Trump. In the view of Mr Morris, the ramifications of this election season are nothing short of political Armageddon, and he is an all-in Trump proponent. Not many agree with you, and saying that is giving you a boat load of credit that you don't deserve because the opinions you parrot were given to you by others. In reading your endless recitations, other than being grateful for our own objectivity, we have plumbed the depths of your knowledge. Sort of like a tape recording, one pushes the button and the recorded message is heard. Every time and as often as the button is pushed however, it is the same old repetitive and hollow message, over and over and over.

But I've noticed yet another similarity attributable to you that is seen in liberals as often as they open their mouths. As soon as they get done with letting loose another whopper, they always finish it off by calling their counterparts liars. And though you may not have developed the technique, you've certainly mastered the art. So though you may be a classless and empty echo chamber, honesty not withstanding, that is not to say that you have nothing to add to the recitations.

[Hoot Gibson]

Whatever. Dick Morris whose opinions you say you respect, has a book out in support of Donald J. Trump. In the view of Mr Morris, the ramifications of this election season are nothing short of political Armageddon, and he is an all-in Trump proponent. Not many agree with you, and saying that is giving you a boat load of credit that you don't deserve because the opinions you parrot were given to you by others. In reading your endless recitations, other than being grateful for our own objectivity, we have plumbed the depths of your knowledge. Sort of like a tape recording, one pushes the button and the recorded message is heard. Every time and as often as the button is pushed however, it is the same old repetitive and hollow message, over and over and over.

But I've noticed yet another similarity attributable to you that is seen in liberals as often as they open their mouths. As soon as they get done with letting loose another whopper, they always finish it off by calling their counterparts liars. And though you may not have developed the technique, you've certainly mastered the art. So though you may be a classless and empty echo chamber, honesty not withstanding, that is not to say that you have nothing to add to the recitations.

I caught you lying again and your response is, "Whatever." Then you clumsily change the subject and begin insulting me again.

Be a man and admit when you're wrong. Even Trump is trying to rehab his reputation and admitting his mistakes. Follow his lead.

[64SUR]

You must not have gotten the memo. All polls that have Donald Trump trailing are rigged. It is obvious that Trump is really leading. Just look at the crowds he is drawing to his rallies and the number of Twitter followers and Facebook friends he has.

Just ask TRT and RIUTG to explain Trump math to you. :biglmao:

Remember the DON got 30% and that's the same folks showing up at the rallies. nicker:

[Motley]

According to 538, Trump has inched up a bit today to having a 13% of winning the election.

[TheRealThing]

I caught you lying again and your response is, "Whatever." Then you clumsily change the subject and begin insulting me again.

Be a man and admit when you're wrong. Even Trump is trying to rehab his reputation and admitting his mistakes. Follow his lead.

Every time I go to the website I see Clinton up 41 to 37 over Trump. Who knows what you see when you go there, and frankly, I can't imagine anybody would care.

Keeping in mind that I've stood right next to you; When you advise me to be a man I can't help but wonder, are you actually setting yourself up as the manly example with which I should compare myself? nicker: If so, short of my ingesting a tanker truck load of estrogen, I can't imagine what in the heck you're getting at.

[TheRealThing]

According to 538, Trump has inched up a bit today to having a 13% of winning the election.

538 really is wearing him out right now. They had it about right during the primaries.

[Hoot Gibson]

Every time I go to the website I see Clinton up 41 to 37 over Trump. Who knows what you see when you go there, and frankly, I can't imagine anybody would care.

Keeping in mind that I've stood right next to you; When you advise me to be a man I can't help but wonder, are you actually setting yourself up as the manly example with which I should compare myself? nicker: If so, short of my ingesting a tanker truck load of estrogen, I can't imagine what in the heck you're getting at.

Pumping estrogen into your veins would not help what ails you. Pumping Sodium Pentothal into your veins would make you more honest, but the effects would be fleeting.

You lied. You got caught and you are continuing to lie. Anybody who clicked on the link that I provided saw that for themselves. The RCP poll for a two-way race between Trump and Hillary now has Hillary up by 6 points.

Please feel free to continue lying about the numbers shown below. Just remember, you are the one that made the claim that Trump's deficit was only 4 points. You remind me more of the Clintons and Trump every day. They also prefer to lie, regardless of how obvious the truth is. As lies go, this one is a whopper even for you. nicker:

[Image: http://www.bluegrassrivals.com/forum/att...1471641368]

[Image: http://www.bluegrassrivals.com/forum/att...1471641610]

[TheRealThing]

Pumping estrogen into your veins would not help what ails you. Pumping Sodium Pentothal into your veins would make you more honest, but the effects would be fleeting.

You lied. You got caught and you are continuing to lie. Anybody who clicked on the link that I provided saw that for themselves. The RCP poll for a two-way race between Trump and Hillary now has Hillary up by 6 points.

Please feel free to continue lying about the numbers shown below. Just remember, you are the one that made the claim that Trump's deficit was only 4 points. You remind me more of the Clintons and Trump every day. They also prefer to lie, regardless of how obvious the truth is. As lies go, this one is a whopper even for you. nicker:

[Image: http://www.bluegrassrivals.com/forum/att...1471641368]

[Image: http://www.bluegrassrivals.com/forum/att...1471641610]

When I want to check the polls I just go to the website, I don't click on your links for the most part, just because I don't trust a word you put up. I checked in today and the 18th poll came up, which I quoted thinking it was evidently the most recent. In the general election your evil step mommy was up 4. But even if RC has Hillary up 6 as of today, she's still going down in flames November 8th and hopefully, that will be the straw that finally drives you into therapy.

Why do I know therapy is so critical in your case? You continue to delude yourself with this idea that you are besting me before some imaginary audience. LOL, I'd pay to see how many 'clicks' you got on that link your so proud of.

I understand you're greatest achievement in life is the online persona you've developed here on BGR and you are very likely therefore, miserable and unfulfilled. Like it or not, Trump will win this fall. And you, well, you will still be you.

[Hoot Gibson]

When I want to check the polls I just go to the website, I don't click on your links for the most part, just because I don't trust a word you put up. I checked in today and the 18th poll came up, which I quoted thinking it was evidently the most recent. In the general election your evil step mommy was up 4. But even if RC has Hillary up 6 as of today, she's still going down in flames November 8th and hopefully, that will be the straw that finally drives you into therapy.

Why do I know therapy is so critical in your case? You continue to delude yourself with this idea that you are besting me before some imaginary audience. LOL, I'd pay to see how many 'clicks' you got on that link your so proud of.

I understand you're greatest achievement in life is the online persona you've developed here on BGR and you are very likely therefore, miserable and unfulfilled. Like it or not, Trump will win this fall. And you, well, you will still be you.

Trump was not within 4 points of Hillary on the 18th either. Trump trailed Hillary by 3.9 points in the RCP poll on August 1st, which was the closet the margin has been during the current month.

Consider yourself fact checked. Four Pinnochios hardly seems adequate in your case.

Your "online persona" must be embarrassing his two fellow BGR Trumpsters with such clumsy and easily refutable lies. :lmao:

Trump has led in the RCP average of polls only very briefly on two occasions. First following his announcement of Pence as his VP and again immediately following the GOP Convention. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton has dominated the polls and I think that most of us would agree that she is an extremely weak candidate by any historical standard.

RCP has a feature that allows you to check the RCP average of polls on any day and it allows you to view the graph using different scales. Keep that in mind, TRT, before you decide to just make up your own RCP numbers in the future.

[URL="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html"]RCP POLL AVERAGE
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton[/URL]

[Image: http://www.bluegrassrivals.com/forum/att...1471680720]

[TheRealThing]

Trump was not within 4 points of Hillary on the 18th either. Trump trailed Hillary by 3.9 points in the RCP poll on August 1st, which was the closet the margin has been during the current month.

Consider yourself fact checked. Four Pinnochios hardly seems adequate in your case.

Your "online persona" must be embarrassing his two fellow BGR Trumpsters with such clumsy and easily refutable lies. :lmao:

Trump has led in the RCP average of polls only very briefly on two occasions. First following his announcement of Pence as his VP and again immediately following the GOP Convention. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton has dominated the polls and I think that most of us would agree that she is an extremely weak candidate by any historical standard.

RCP has a feature that allows you to check the RCP average of polls on any day and it allows you to view the graph using different scales. Keep that in mind, TRT, before you decide to just make up your own RCP numbers in the future.

[URL="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html"]RCP POLL AVERAGE
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton[/URL]

[Image: http://www.bluegrassrivals.com/forum/att...1471680720]

Like I said, whether you're having a reaction to your meds or just in the throes of another psychotic episode, you need real help.

[Hoot Gibson]

Like I said, whether you're having a reaction to your meds or just in the throes of another psychotic episode, you need real help.

You just got caught in a blatant and deliberate lie and yet you persist in your feeble attempt at character assassination? :lmao:

Maybe it is time for you to dispense with your amateur psychobabble and find yourself a new "online persona" because this one has just been unmasked as a fraud.

[jetpilot]

Like I said, whether you're having a reaction to your meds or just in the throes of another psychotic episode, you need real help.

He's scared Trump will win and smack him and his Obama-favored contractor off the teat. That's why Hoot's a Hillary activist/surrogate...:flush:

[Hoot Gibson]

He's scared Trump will win and smack him and his Obama-favored contractor off the teat. That's why Hoot's a Hillary activist/surrogate...:flush:

As Socrates said, “When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.”

Losers like you and TRT are nothing new. They have been with us throughout history.

[jetpilot]

As Socrates said, “When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.”

Losers like you and TRT are nothing new. They have been with us throughout history.

Nice comeback.

As someone once said, "You are as full of **** as a Christmas turkey."

You haven't even come close to winning any of your arguments for Hillary.

[Monte]

We must come to realization that we are going to have either Trump or Clinton as President for at least the next four years. The sad thing is that we must vote for the one that is going to do the least amount of damage to this country.

[jetpilot]

We must come to realization that we are going to have either Trump or Clinton as President for at least the next four years. The sad thing is that we must vote for the one that is going to do the least amount of damage to this country.

Hoot doesn't get it, but everyone else over 12 years old knows it's true.

[Hoot Gibson]

Nice comeback.

As someone once said, "You are as full of **** as a Christmas turkey."

You haven't even come close to winning any of your arguments for Hillary.

You are finally right about something. I haven't made any arguments for Hillary, so I haven't won any. Just like you haven't won any arguments in favor of Donald Trump because you haven't made any. Your support for Trump during the primaries has helped Hillary's march to the White House more than anything I could do for her short of casting a vote for her. If you voted for Trump in the Kentucky caucuses or failed to vote, then you have already given more support to Hillary than I have.

[TheRealThing]

^^Whew! The happening spot for the Hooter on Saturday night is well, back to the ol keyboard I see.

And of course, Monte gets it as does everybody whose commented on the election except one guy, that's one. But if I understand Hoot's rationale, it could be analogized as follows; Yes the country is like the Titanic, going down in waters that spell certain doom. And yes, there is a rescue boat on scene to save us but, Hoot's not about to get on because he doesn't like the rescue boat.

Now, Hoot says all those voting for Trump are liars, idiots, losers, cult inspired, or otherwise undereducated low information types. But, despite all his frothing and poisonous anti-Trump tirades, the only two posters that line up with him are catdoggy and 64Sur.

[Hoot Gibson]

^^Whew! The happening spot for the Hooter on Saturday night is well, back to the ol keyboard I see.

And of course, Monte gets it as does everybody whose commented on the election except one guy, that's one. But if I understand Hoot's rationale, it could be analogized as follows; Yes the country is like the Titanic, going down in waters that spell certain doom. And yes, there is a rescue boat on scene to save us but, Hoot's not about to get on because he doesn't like the rescue boat.

Now, Hoot says all those voting for Trump are liars, idiots, losers, cult inspired, or otherwise undereducated low information types. But, despite all his frothing and poisonous anti-Trump tirades, the only two posters that line up with him are catdoggy and 64Sur.

I did not say that those who vote for Trump are liars. Most people who plan to vote for Trump are fine people who see him as the lesser of two evils and I can certainly see the merits of their position.

I did say that you are a liar and I proved that allegation beyond all doubt in my posts above. Your continued personal attacks against me will not change the facts. You lied repeatedly and still refuse to take responsibility for your actions and simply admit the truth.

You are the BGR poster boy for hypocrisy, and it has nothing to do with your support of Donald Trump. You earned that honor by posing as a conservative all of these years while remaining a registered Democrat and failing to qualify to vote in this year's Republican caucus, all the while preaching to others about how we should vote. However, the dishonest tactics that you have employed in supporting Trump has only solidified your position as BGR's Chief Hypocrite.

Everybody who has taken the time to read your posts and do their own fact checking knows the truth about you.

When is it okay to lie, TRT? When it is about politics? When it is for the greater good of the country? When it is about sex? How do you decide when the truth is not good enough?

[jetpilot]

Sorry to break it to you Hoot, but I'm sure the conservatives on here find TRT 10x more trustworthy than you. Your fellow Hillary activists love what you are doing though no doubt.

[jetpilot]

^^Whew! The happening spot for the Hooter on Saturday night is well, back to the ol keyboard I see.

And of course, Monte gets it as does everybody whose commented on the election except one guy, that's one. But if I understand Hoot's rationale, it could be analogized as follows; Yes the country is like the Titanic, going down in waters that spell certain doom. And yes, there is a rescue boat on scene to save us but, Hoot's not about to get on because he doesn't like the rescue boat.

Now, Hoot says all those voting for Trump are liars, idiots, losers, cult inspired, or otherwise undereducated low information types. But, despite all his frothing and poisonous anti-Trump tirades, the only two posters that line up with him are catdoggy and 64Sur.

Two people who will vote for the Dem no matter who's running. Congrats Hoot, you have a bright future in Dem activism if Trump wins and kicks you off the taxpayers' teat.nicker:

[jetpilot]

You are finally right about something. I haven't made any arguments for Hillary, so I haven't won any. Just like you haven't won any arguments in favor of Donald Trump because you haven't made any. Your support for Trump during the primaries has helped Hillary's march to the White House more than anything I could do for her short of casting a vote for her. If you voted for Trump in the Kentucky caucuses or failed to vote, then you have already given more support to Hillary than I have.

You continue to spew the same BS that has won over........not a single person. The only reason anyone with a conservative bone and half a brain in his body needs to vote for Trump is he is not Hillary Clinton. That you can continue to say I am helping Hillary and you aren't, when I'm voting against her and you are not going to vote against her and are constantly attacking her opponent shows how incredibly weak your feeble little mind really is. Maybe it's because all your BS is killing your brain cells.:biggrin:

[Hoot Gibson]

You continue to spew the same BS that has won over........not a single person. The only reason anyone with a conservative bone and half a brain in his body needs to vote for Trump is he is not Hillary Clinton. That you can continue to say I am helping Hillary and you aren't, when I'm voting against her and you are not going to vote against her and are constantly attacking her opponent shows how incredibly weak your feeble little mind really is. Maybe it's because all your BS is killing your brain cells.:biggrin:

You calling anybody feeble minded is hilarious! nicker:

I am not trying to win votes for anybody. I spend most of my time responding to personal attacks from a handful of dim-witted Trump supporters such as yourself.

Trump supporters who do nothing but insult his critics are not winning any converts. Trump finally seems to making an effort to conduct himself like a responsible adult. You should try doing the same.

[jetpilot]

^^^More BS spew! It's all you got...